VLADIMIR PUTIN
ARCHIVE OF THE OFFICIAL SITE
OF THE 2008-2012 PRIME MINISTER
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
VLADIMIR PUTIN
ARCHIVE OF THE OFFICIAL SITE
OF THE 2008-2012 PRIME MINISTER
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
VLADIMIR PUTIN
“We need to see the prospects, and in this respect it is no secret that strategic forecasting is an important component of the development strategy for our economy and for this country in general. This is not idle talk, nor is it guesswork. We must proceed based on expert evaluation of the development of the global economy and the Russian economy, and to take a close and professional look at a more distant perspective.”
“In fact, Vnesheconombank has become an important integrated institution promoting the development of the national economy. The bank considerably increased its participation in financing major investment projects in the last four years, which means the creation of new jobs and the development of new technology”.
“On the backdrop of rather complicated global economic and financial processes, Russia confidently started 2012. The first two months of the year saw positive dynamics in practically all of the key areas and indicators.”
“The most important achievement of this past year is the consolidation of the trend towards steady growth. The Russian economy has overcome the effects of the crisis and has reached its pre-crisis figures in key parameters.”
“None of the developed economies will have a budget surplus this year; while Russia’s federal revenue will exceed expenditures. Inflation will be the lowest in recent history this year – 7%, which is even below the estimates. The country’s reserve funds are growing too. We have a healthy economy and financial sector and we stand a good chance of making a development breakthrough.”
“Within the next few years we will have to fundamentally change our economy. These are not our ambitions, nor a slogan, but the requirements of the day. This is a challenge that faces the entire world in general and Russia in particular. Only an efficient, competitive economy with a powerful industrial and technological base will allow us to feel confident in the constantly developing world, to reduce our dependence on complicated and turbulent processes in the world economy and guarantee our protection against global risks.”
“I should note that rates in Russia always increase on January 1. This creates expectations of inflation, and drives inflationary pressure from the very beginning of the year. That is why I propose to cap the increase in Russian Railways’ rates at 6% as of January 1, 2012. <…>All other increases will not take effect on January 1, 2012, but on July 1, 2012 – these include a maximum increase of 15% in gas prices and increases to keep pace with inflation on electricity, which includes grid maintenance and heating. This is in light of the fact that energy consumption declines in the warm season and consumers will find the higher prices easier to bear than in winter.”
“As the overall economic situation stabilised and post-crisis growth began, it started to pay greater attention to long-term goals rather than emergency support measures for specific sectors and enterprises. First and foremost, I have in mind projects for modernisation and re-equipment and, naturally, for promoting small and medium-sized businesses.”
“Last year Russia became the global leader in oil production, with over 500 million metric tonnes. We took over the first position, overtaking all other oil producing countries. I'd like to congratulate our oil industry for this result – 500 million tonnes of oil is exactly the quantity that we need to meet both domestic and export requirements, and we should maintain production at this level in the coming years.”
“I suppose that expanded vocational education, primarily secondary and primary education, is a priority task facing the state and the business community. We must see to it that this kind of education meets the demands of modern production. We must renew the technical base for training specialists. <…> All of us need to work to raise the prestige of industrial careers and to enhance the public significance of skilled labour.”
“We must give priority to the development of all non-oil and gas sectors. I’d like to emphasise that I’m referring to the modern industry capable of producing the competitive products required in Russia (and primarily in Russia) and the rest of the world. This economy must be based on such basic market notions as profitability, demand and return on investment. Therefore, business, and in fact only business, can become the driving force of this project. The government can only help it by creating the right conditions.”
“We are setting ourselves an ambitious goal – to make Russia one of the world’s top five economies in a decade and to increase the GDP per capita from a little over $19,000 today to $35,000 and a bit more. The living standards of our people, as well as the quality of education and healthcare must be comparable to those in the leading world economies.”
“We need to consistently work toward reducing Russia’s dependence on the commodity market. We all understand this and have been discussing it for many years. In fact our common strategic goal is to ensure a sustainable and quality growth of our economy based on the domestic market and non-resource related sector.”
“I believe that in 2010, we laid the foundation for moving forward and addressing the long-term goals of our development. There are, of course, still certain risks in the economy, but there are positive trends as well. The process of recovery in industry and the banking sector is gathering ever more momentum and force”.
“Indeed, we do have something to show for all the work we have done. The key indicators, of course, are the falling rate of unemployment and the reduction in the number of people who live below the poverty line. We have managed to make progress on this even during the global financial and economic crisis. Of course, it had something to do with the changing trends in economic development. Last year we saw a major slump, 7.9%. This year we expect a growth of about 9%, and the industry indicators are even better, a growth of more than 8% and rising real wages.”
“The proportion of Russians living below the poverty line has decreased from 13.1% last year to 12.5% this year. Is that a lot? I would say that this is a positive change. I'd like to remind you that 29% of people in Russia, or about 45 million, were living below the poverty line in the year 2000.”
“The main issue today is the development of our economy. It is in our common interest to make progress by modernising production, creating efficient and higher-paying jobs as well as enhancing labour productivity. Incidentally, this year we have seen a growth in labour productivity, not a record one but still a stable one. And we must maintain such quality of industrial development by all means. Otherwise, Russian businesses will not be able to remain competitive, and new jobs will be created abroad rather than in Russia - similar things are happening in Western Europe.”
“We are now experiencing the lowest inflation in 20 years: 3.8% for the first four months of the year. It's clear that this is very important and beneficial for encouraging investment and increasing lending, especially long-term lending. More importantly, low inflation allows us not only to maintain people's real incomes, but steadily increase them. Today we see an upward trend in key economic indices. Russia's GDP is expected to grow by 3.5%-4% in 2010, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. There are even more optimistic scenarios, but we will proceed from that conservative estimate. Russian industry performed extremely well in April, posting double-digit growth, 10.4%, for the first time.”
“Starting in July 2009, the Russian economy has shown increasingly steady signs of recovery. According to official government forecasts, in 2010, GDP is slated to increase 3.1%. Nevertheless, there is a high probability that the growth rate will be higher. The preliminary results of the first quarter of 2010 inspire optimism. Growth in industrial production was 5.8% and real income increased 7.4%. All of this enables us to say that the recession is over in our economy. More importantly, we have very good starting conditions for further progress.”
“The economy showed clear signs of improvement during the second half of last year. GDP and industrial production began growing again, and there have been some signs of recovery in investment.”
“Traditionally Russia has had a large foreign trade surplus: at the end of 2009 it will be about $100 billion. Foreign investment is flowing in, the national currency, the rouble, is growing stronger and our sovereign wealth fund has now reached more than $447 billion.”
“Positive trends are apparent in Russia too. Since June 2009 the GDP has been growing month on month and investment demand and retail trade have been gradually recovering. The macro-economic situation remains stable, inflation in the country is set to be at one of its lowest rates since 1992, certainly under 10%, and I think it my be 9%.”
"The economy has been growing in the past five months. The growth is modest, an average of 0.5% a month, and some months even lower, 0.3%. Some months the economy grew by 0.8%, but on average the economy has been growing by 0.5% for the past five months. I very much hope that these positive figures will grow by the middle of next year."
"We are restoring our gold and currency reserves. Today they are the third largest in the world after the People's Republic of China and Japan and amount to $444 billion. We have a trade surplus, and we will probably have the best indicator in this area. We have a positive trade balance, probably the best figure. We did well in 2006, and the inflation rate is likely to be lower this year. It will be lower than 10% this year, probably even one-digit figure, around 9%. This means that we have coped with these problems."
"We see the average wage falling; it is down 3.6%. Why? Because the fall in the commercial sector was considerable, 5.6%, I think. The influence on the public sector became evident in 2009 because the wage fund in the sector was increased in December 2008, and so wages in that sector increased by 4.1%. We have increased pensions considerably, by 13%-14%."
"In the sectors that the Government considers to be its direct sphere of responsibility the situation is more or less acceptable. For instance, industry, as I said, is expected to contract by 13%, but the defence industry will grow by 3.7%. And in some areas, for example in aerospace, they have many problems too and we were recently looking at this industry - but they have a growth of 13%."
"What has been done during this difficult year, I would say, first, that it was one of the most difficult years in the past decade - not only for us, but for the world economy in general. These events have hit us hard. We had predicted (though no official forecasts were made), some experts believed that GDP in Russia would drop by about 10%. It has dropped significantly, but not as much as some experts had thought. It is likely to be 8.5-8.7%. That is a lot."
"In the second half of this year, our economy has started growing again; inflation is going down, and unemployment is gradually decreasing. This does not mean that anti-crisis measures are no longer necessary. Needless to say, we will continue encouraging the domestic demand, increasing the stability and reliability of the financial system, and taking measures to reduce the budget deficit and ensure macro-economic stability. Nevertheless, the tasks of strategic development are gradually moving to the fore. We are living in different economic conditions, and this reality is very important."
"I would like to say at the beginning of our meeting today that the Russian Government and the Central Bank of Russia maintained the stability of the country's banking system amid the global financial downturn and protected the national currency from dramatic fluctuations that can be so painful for people and for companies."
"The scope, essence and timeframe for administrative procedures must be clearly outlined, and the principles for setting prices for government services must be established. It is necessary to continue to foster administrative reform, abolish the state's unnecessary powers, minimise the number of inspections, and switch from the practice of giving authorisation to providing recommendations."
“We consider privatisation to be one of the key tools in reforming the real economy, in improving the competitive environment and in attracting additional investment.”
"We must ensure that the post-crisis recovery of the Russian economy be accompanied by qualitative modernisation of its industrial base and infrastructure through the introduction of cutting-edge technologies and an increase in labour productivity."
"I also believe that we have no other option but to form a full-fledged and stable financial market of our own, where national savings will be converted into development capital - a source for so-called "long money." And this is yet another of our key goals."
"We call on businesses to more actively invest in Russia's regions. Do not stay in the same place, where there is often not enough "room" for everyone, but consider the regions that are not spoiled with overinvestment and where it is possible to take advantage of optimum business conditions."
"We are also pursuing a tight anti-inflation policy. Our goal here is to reduce the current inflation level almost by half (from the estimated 12% this year). I believe - I know - that Central Bank officials agree with these proposals: 11% on average by the end of this year, or even lower, and no more than 5%-7% by 2012."
"Russia is the only country that proceeded with a large-scale pension reform during the recession. The basic portion of labour pensions will be increased again by 30% later this year - on December 1. Next year, pensions will grow by an average of 46%, an unprecedented rise in Russia. Now what economic implications will this have? This reform will produce internal demand for an additional 1 trillion roubles, or over $30 billion."
"In line with the pension reform issues, we postponed an increase in corporate insurance premiums, so as not to worsen the fiscal burden on businesses during the recession. Admittedly, as a result - back to our macroeconomic problems - the 2009 federal budget will carry an 8% deficit for the first time in a decade."
"We have enough resources and opportunities to protect the country from new currency shocks, from shocks to the national currency and the financial system. Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves exceed $400 billion."
"We need to improve many things in legislation and corporate governance, and to modernise the structure of the real and financial sectors. But we do not need to reinvent the wheel. Russia's development strategy until 2020 and the guidelines of the Government's operation until 2012 outline the main directions for development, the main projects that should ensure qualitative changes in the Russian economy, and the innovative vector of its modernisation."
"I would like to say that we need not so much a quick, as a qualitative recovery. Our recovery should be based on fundamentally new precepts, with reliance on new growth parameters."
"At present, nearly all the leading countries are trying to determine their place in the post-crisis world. Russia is also facing this task. I believe that Russia can not only strengthen its traditional competitive advantages, for example, in energy, metallurgy, chemicals, transport, and now also in agriculture, but also greatly enhance the role of its high-tech innovation sector."
"We can now shift our attention, moving from "manual control" to systemic solutions capable of ensuring the sustainable development of the Russian economy in the post-crisis period."
"We will consistently promote private enterprise, the country's integration into the global economy and will also do our best to create a favourable investment climate. As the situation becomes stable and the crisis trends are overcome, it is our intention to purposefully and consistently reduce state economic intervention, to use traditional market tools, including privatisation instruments."
"We believe that we still need to support those industries where a dramatic decrease in demand has created serious problems. As in many countries, these include the automotive industry, engineering as a whole, housing construction and other industries."
"Apart from removing administrative barriers, we have cut taxes significantly. As you must know, Russia has the lowest income tax rate today, 13%, and also the lowest corporate tax rate in both the G8 and BRIC - 20%."
"We are open to foreign investment. Last year we adopted a law regulating the procedure allowing foreign capital to gain control of companies in strategic sectors. Ladies and gentlemen, that law was adopted largely as a result of consultations with our foreign partners, who said openly that we must tell them clearly where they can work, under what conditions and where they could expect limitations. We have done so."
“Today, a year after the start of the crisis, we are seeing the first signs of economic recovery, and we justifiably expect that the Russian economy will start gradually improving in 2010. I hope that the GDP will grow, even if just a little. The Ministry of Economic Development predicts growth of 1.6%.”
"We will continue our efforts to diversify the economy, to encourage the development of high-tech and science-intensive industries. We are already doing this, while at the same time tackling a two-sided problem, as I have said above, which includes measures to prevent increases in spending. However, we have not cut state investment in high-tech projects that rely on government involvement in these industries - in aircraft manufacturing, in space exploration, or in shipbuilding."
"I would like to say that we will honour all of our social commitments this year, regardless of the crises. We have indexed social allowances, just as we planned to do before the crisis, within the framework of legislation we adopted during the good years. We will index pensions four times this year."
"One of our tasks this year is to restore macroeconomic indices, lower inflation, and prevent the strengthening of the national currency to the levels we saw in previous years.<...> First of all, we must pay attention to macroeconomic parameters. Using this as the groundwork, we will try to ensure that long-term loans are available in the economy and at the lending institutions, so that we will be able to use internal financial resources."
