Today marks the first 100 days of Putin's government
Vladimir Putin's first 100 days fall easily into what was before and after August 8. But that watershed is not as clearly marked as in Medvedev's presidency.
Yes, like the whole country, the Government faced a real battle on the southern borders. Yes, Putin was forced to speak out against aggression and accuse the West of "large-scale cynicism". Simultaneously the Government was urgently working out a plan of bringing relief aid to refugees and sent convoys of trucks loaded with food and medical supplies to South Ossetia to prevent a humanitarian disaster there.
Indeed, tough talk coming from Putin as Prime Minister is not new. In 1999 it was his determination that endeared him to the majority of Russians. At the time, there was a war on in Chechnya and the country was ruled by a not very popular president, Yeltsin, oil was cheap, and gold and foreign currency reserves were almost non-existent. So, Putin finds his second stint as Premier more comfortable not only because he is familiar with the job, but from a macro-economic point of view as well. Today the Russian leadership's actions have the support of the majority of Russians, according to opinion polls. The country rallied to oppose an external enemy in 2008 in the same way as it rallied against an internal one in 1999.
On May 8 the President-elect and the formally "jobless" Putin, who had been described as a strong Premier long before his confirmation, arrived at the State Duma. In the 100 days that followed nothing has changed: the position of the Prime Minister has, if anything, grown stronger and so has the weight of the White House (seat of the Government), the main executive body in the land. Summer, of course, is not the best time for assessing interim results, especially since the new Cabinet structure has only just been formed.
What Putin was interested in as President has become his immediate job as Prime Minister. Undoubtedly, he is a political prime minister. However, a strong political prime minister is not something new even for the new Russia (think of Primakov or the later Chernomyrdin). Nor is the Premier being nominated by a party anything new: think of Chernomyrdin and Our Home Is Russia. Of course, the latter is not to be compared with the United Russia party in terms of its size and ambitions. Being the party leader without being a party member, Vladimir Putin has ensured that the Government's bills have a smooth ride through the State Duma. True, Putin did not include any of United Russia members in his Cabinet. This may be why the governing party has launched a purge of its ranks and a preparation of new cadres.
The new Prime Minister immediately set up the Government Presidium, which can act more swiftly than the cumbersome Cabinet. The Presidium includes "the security ministers" and the Foreign Minister. They now report not only to the President, as was the case before, but also to the Prime Minister.
The Government structure is a complicated mosaic: in fact everyone is responsible for everything. For example, the Prime Minister orders Finance Minister Kudrin to monitor how the Federal Antimonopoly Service is drafting antimonopoly legislation although this is within the brief of First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.
In this situation the Government comes effectively under "manual control": in the event of disputes between its agencies the final decision rests with only one man, Vladimir Putin. Of course, this is not a new situation for him. The country functioned in this mode throughout his eight years as President. But it may be that the cumbersome structure will again change over time and perhaps very soon.
Contrary to forecasts, Medvedev and Putin quickly delimited their spheres of activity. Fighting corruption and reform of the law courts is the President's prerogative while the Prime Minister deals with "pure" economics. True, both have been active in foreign policy, especially in light of recent events.
During his election campaign Dmitry Medvedev ran on a liberal platform, which applied to economics, among other things. Addressing deputies on May 8, Putin largely confirmed the new President's theses. In fact, Putin laid out the programme of his premiership at the State Council meeting back in February when he launched the ambitious Strategy 2020. The deadline for implementing the ambitious plans does not run out until 12 years from now, but a lot has already been done over the last 100 days, if only on paper. Registration of small enterprises will, beginning from next year, require mere notification, and not a permit, licensing of many types of activities will be cancelled as will be mandatory certification of thousands of goods and services. The Government has also paid considerable attention to Medvedev's pet idea of an innovation-driven economy: the funding of federal targeted programmes has been increased and a special state corporation, along with the Education and Science Ministry, have been put in charge of nanotechnology (again, everybody answers for everything).
The social sphere of course received its share of attention. The three-year budget allocates tens of billions of roubles for education, health and pensions. Beginning December 1, public sector employees will be paid according to a new scheme: their wages will be performance-related. The reform of the minimum wage is scheduled for January 1, 2009: the minimum wage will become equal to the living minimum. And the wage fund will increase by a third during the current year.
At the same time the "Mechel case" suddenly cropped up and the Prime Minister's sharp remarks about the unseemly activities of that mining company sent the stock exchange plummeting. True, experts have breathed a sigh of relief that this was as far as it went and that Mechel was not being treated as a political case.
Even so, Russian companies lost billions of dollars of their capitalisation and the investment climate has worsened. Vladimir Putin ordered the drafting of antimonopoly laws that would qualify price fixing as a deadly sin. Honest, transparent and absolutely equal rules for all: this is the slogan under which the Government entered the market, planning to establish itself there as a "visible hand".
While he was still President, Vladimir Putin became active in economic affairs, learned the routes of oil and gas pipelines and mastered hydrocarbon terminology. And no wonder, considering that neither Putin's nor Medvedev's Russia can survive without oil and gas. Calling a meeting in Severodvinsk, the Prime Minister began by cutting taxes on the industry, which he said, would increase the profits of oilmen by 130-140 billion roubles a year. He even mentioned the possibility of a tax holiday in the shape of a zero rate for the severance tax.
However, the main challenge that no Russian government has yet been able to meet is inflation. Although the White House has been planning to bring it down to a single digit figure for years, prices are galloping. In the opinion of analysts, inflation will rise to 13% by the end of 2008; an updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development puts it at 11.8%. The Putin Government has its job cut out to reduce inflation to a single digit figure and to achieve a real growth of income recognised not only by the Russian statistical agency, but by ordinary citizens.
By Pierre Sidibe