Russia's third president took office on May 7. The 2008 dilemma was resolved without a hitch.
Everything went according to plan, or, to be more precise, Putin's Plan, which he drafted together with his successor. Despite the predictable scenario, that was quite an affair. The procedure was strict, and sometimes very moving. A chime of bells, the echoes of the solemn words of the presidential oath in the silence of the Andreyevsky Hall, the applause of the public, and the first "We salute you, Mr President" instead of "Mr Medvedev" and the first "Mr Putin" instead of "Mr President". There were tears in people's eyes, and hoarse tunes amidst the metal of high-sounding phrases...
Many thought that Mr Putin would be supersensitive to the formal downgrading of his former status. However, all those who watched the ceremony realised that he was quite pleased with his current unofficial status. First, his prestige and leadership remained immutable. Second, the same team was at the wheel, and finally, Putin merely changed his presidential position for a weighty post of the prime minister.
The effects of the May castling on the entire state policy were another matter. They will undoubtedly be felt later. Although personnel changes were minor compared to those of eight years ago, when the structure of country's leadership underwent a radical change. Two centres of administrative attraction emerged in the country on May 7. This was the price which had to be paid for continuing the same policy and for political stability. As a result, the ruling duumvirate kept the Constitution, and full control over the situation. The country did not plunge into the abysm of political turbulence.
Meanwhile, just six months ago, the 2008 problem seemed insoluble to many. Some emotional forecasters predicted a post-Putin famine and devastation, flooding and a coup d'état, while others even talked about an Orange Revolution. Maybe, some storm petrels would favour such a course of events, but the majority of people have learned once and for all that boring stability is better than a merry perestroika.
However, life in the next four years is not likely to be dull. The 2008 dilemma has gradually developed into 2008-2012 dilemmas. The same question of power is at stake, but it is not at all reduced to the development of Putin-Medvedev relations. There are grounds to believe that their relations will be fine, just as they have been for the past 15 years, and not so much because of mutual rapport, but based on a clear political necessity. The interests of the political and national leaders are so interwoven that they simply cannot exist separately in the current political system.
Conversely, this interwoven character guarantees the stability of the chosen model. When he agreed to be prime minister, Putin realised that he would become Medvedev's subordinate, and would at the same time bear responsibility for him as his protégé. In turn, the support of the former head of state will remain the new president's main political resource, and, in effect, a source of his legitimacy for a long time. In a nutshell, they are yin and yang, alpha and omega, two shores of the same river...
But the interests of the Russian elites are more conflicting. With one-man rule, this is not a big problem. Participants in the duel can have it out as much as they like, but the last word will belong to the supreme arbiter. As Putin has emphasised more than once, the president will shoulder the main burden, in line with the Constitution. However, now there emerges the phenomenon of the last-but-one word, which would be heeded as attentively.
Putin will not be the first figure in this system of coordinates. But he won't play the second fiddle, either. At first, petitions will be carried to both top political instances, the Kremlin and the White House. This will resolve another major issue. To whom of the two sovereigns they should bow lower? Of course, they should do this equally to be on the safe side. If their appeals and assurances of respect receive the same response from both the Government and the Presidential Executive Office, there will be no problem. But this country is too big, and our compatriots have too many requests for officials to fully synchronise "work with the population". Inevitable discrepancy may polarise the elites and divide them into favourites in two different palaces, into the King's Musketeers and the Cardinal's Guards.
Tensions will not reach the boiling point of Alexander Duma's famous novel: "It was not uncommon for Richelieu and Louis XIII to dispute over their evening game of chess upon the merits of their servants. Each boasted the bearing and the courage of his own people. While exclaiming loudly against duels and brawls, they excited them secretly to quarrel, deriving an immoderate satisfaction or genuine regret from the success or defeat of their own combatants." But it would be too much to expect no tensions at all. Court morals have changed little in the last 400 years: the same scandals, intrigues, and inquiries.
However, the President and the Prime Minister are not likely to have illusions about the prevailing attitudes in the elites. To continue the historic and geographical analogy, the 17th century was not the worst time for French statehood. Despite the two centres of power, or, perhaps, owing to them, the kingdom was expanding and growing stronger. Conversely, Louis XVI's undivided rule lead to a revolution, lengthy troubled times, and eventually to a world war. To sum up, nothing is predetermined in such cases, and cannot be.
However, this is not the only problem of "tandemocracy". Putin will not be a grey cardinal. He will be a public politician, or rather an official, who will be personally responsible for the victories and failures in the limitless sphere of his competence. This troublesome position does little to improve one's ratings.
There are reasons to say that in the last eight years Putin shouldered an even bigger responsibility, but he was somehow credited with all achievements, whereas the failures were blamed on his careless subordinates and the government, which played the role of the bulwark repelling the salvoes of criticism at the expense of their reputation.
Meanwhile, it is obvious that the road to innovation frontiers, mapped out by Prime Minister Putin in his address to the Duma, will not be strewn with roses alone. Take inflation, for one. Itogi's high-ranking source in the White House admitted frankly that one of the Government's priorities is to raise the tariffs charged by energy and other natural monopolies on the domestic market to the level of world prices. Without this, it will be impossible to prevent a decrease in oil and gas production, and the decay of pipelines, electric power grids, and railroads.
The old government facilitated this task to some extent. Before leaving, it approved a programme of a sharp rise in electricity and gas prices, railroad tariffs, and telephone communications in 2009-2011. But who is interested in whose signatures are on these papers? In any event, grievances will be made to the current executive government, and the prime minister himself will have to be the lightning rod.
There are different ways of alleviating these blows. First, the prime minister could demonstratively disassociate himself from the boring routine.
A legion of his deputies will have to clean up the mess. If insiders are correct, now they will be 11 deputy prime ministers, which coincides with the number of offices prepared for them in the White House (the insight of its architects is truly amazing). Competent sources say that all questions of the White House strategy will be discussed at the meetings of this small "politburo." Boring weekly government meetings will be given up.
The appearance of the first deputy prime minister is most likely. He will release his boss from the burden of routine work. It is quite possible that the government will be consolidated with some heavyweight from the outside. Our sources say that rumours about a proposal to former Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky (which he will find it hard to reject) are not unfounded. All these steps may reduce political losses but not prevent them. The government and Putin are now twins.
Incidentally, the new president will not play the role of the British Queen, either. Clear-cut delimitation of the Kremlin and the White House's competences are favoured by both the President and the Prime Minister. It makes Medvedev personally responsible for the spheres within his prerogative, such as law-enforcement, which has many problems as well.
To sum up, both leaders are assuming a heavy burden. But the nation can sigh with relief. We have received a clear and exhaustive answer as to who is now in charge of everything.