After several days of persuasion, Ukraine agreed to give international monitors access to its gas pipelines. Now experts from Russia, Ukraine, Europe and independent companies will be able to know how much gas Gazprom moved to Ukraine and how much gas reached the European buyers. This is our first victory in the "gas war", and is in fact the first time in history that Ukraine has made such a concession. At stake are billions of dollars, because Kiev not only stole gas but probably sold the gas it bought from Russia at a discount price, charging market prices that are twice as high. However, things were not that straightforward; even the framework Rules of the Monitoring of the Transit of Natural Gas through Ukraine signed by Russia differ markedly from the document signed by Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Izvestia has tried to pinpoint the differences.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller was ready to sign the Transit Monitoring Rules on Thursday when he was in Brussels negotiating with the members of the European Commission and the Head of the Ukrainian national oil company Naftogaz, Oleg Dubina. If that had happened, gas would be flowing to Europe as early as Saturday, but the Ukrainian delegation agreed to give access only to the representatives from the European Commission. However, Russia insisted on the monitoring group, including experts from the companies that buy gas, independent monitors, and Russian representatives to guarantee unbiased results. Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, the current President of the EU, decided to take a mediating role and flew to Moscow on Saturday for that purpose. In recent days Topolanek has had two problems dropped in his lap simultaneously: the war in the Gaza Strip and the Russian gas supply scandal. In a crisis it was essential for him not to appear to be inferior to French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who during the previous six months of the French EU presidency, went out of his way to project an image of a fighter against the crisis.
A somewhat pale Topolanek (said to have gone without sleep for two days while shuttling between Moscow and Kiev) reached Putin's Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow by noon on Saturday. Five hours later, when journalists were despairing that they would get no news, a protocol on monitoring the transit of gas through Ukraine had been agreed. That said, neither Putin nor Topolanek could say with confidence that the Ukrainians would sign the protocol.
Most of the talking at the press conference after the signing was done by Putin, while Topolanek just smiled.
"We are aware of the dramatic situation in several European countries due to the reckless decision of the Ukrainian leadership to cut the transit of Russian gas and effectively impose a gas blockade on Europe". Putin chose to start with accusations, to which Topolanek reacted with a weary smile, as if to say, I have heard exactly the same in Kiev. "Our position on resuming the transit of Russian gas via Ukrainian territory is absolutely clear and understandable: we will do it as soon as international monitors arrive at the points of entry and exit of gas on the borders of Russia and Ukraine and, accordingly, on the territories of Ukraine and Russia. These monitors, in accordance with the document we have agreed, will also be deployed on the territories of European countries. This is the only way we can guarantee that the contracted supplies of Russian natural gas reach European consumers."
Putin reiterated that "there are two problems": the first, relations concerning Russian gas for Ukraine, and the second, the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine to European consumers. He also stressed the importance of "genuine diversification of delivery routes" for Russian energy to Europe - that is, the need to build the Nord Stream and South Stream.
"Mr Topolanek said today that he had managed to get the Ukrainian President and the Prime Minister at the same table, and I credit his political ability," Putin said, suddenly changing the subject. In general, Putin seemed more flamboyant and confident than we have seen him for a long time. Perhaps the only comparable moment was when he was asked how he would treat Saakashvili during his live Q&A session. Yushchenko was now his next target. "If Mr Topolanek manages to get some other representatives of the political elite at the same table, it would be a manifestation of his supreme ability".
Topolanek smiled modestly.
"I am making an additional proposal," Putin went on. I think it is possible and reasonable that media representatives - Ukrainian as well as Russian and European - be allowed at all the control points."
Topolanek gave a smile of surprise.
"I thank Mr Putin for his very vigorous approach to solving the issue of speeding up gas supplies to the EU," the Czech Prime Minister said. "I take a very sober view of the signing of this document because some signatures are still lacking." ...
"Because Mr Topolanek has come to us from Kiev and has brought with him the document that we have fully agreed on in practice, I assume that the document will be signed in Kiev today," Putin pressed on. "I see no reason why the document should not be signed."
Topolanek, however, did not conceal the fact that he was not at all sure that the Ukrainian leadership would play ball: Putin's remark drew laughter from him and smirks from the members of the Czech Prime Minister's delegation.
Topolanek, his spirits visibly lifted, went from Novo-Ogaryovo back to Kiev. His talks there with the Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko lasted long into the night, and it was nearly 2 a.m. on Sunday when they faced the press. The Czech Premier was very emphatic in saying that all the obstacles in the way of gas supplies to Europe had now been removed.
"We managed to break the deadlock during the past two days and nothing now prevents the resumption of gas transit via Ukraine to the EU countries. Ukraine has met all the conditions for Russia to resume gas supplies," Mr Topolanek stressed. Russia will start gas supplies after international experts are deployed on all the necessary sites. I think the European countries will get gas within 36 hours."
However, Yulia Tymoshenko immediately made it clear that the Transit Monitoring Rules she had signed were very different from those Topolanek had agreed in Moscow. Initially, the document merely mentioned the composition of the expert groups and the control points where monitors would be deployed, but during the last few hours in Kiev, five highly politicized points were added to the document. Arguably, these claims became the stumbling block in the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine.
Generally, it is not uncommon for agreed documents to be modified. It happened in August when Nicolas Sarkozy brought to Tbilisi a plan for a settlement to the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict that he had hammered out with Dmitry Medvedev. However, we know about the content of Kiev's Rules... only from the remarks of Yulia Tymoshenko made shortly after the signing.
"Point one: Ukraine has been and remains a reliable gas transiter and has not cut off gas supplies to Europe. Point two: since January 1, 2009, Ukraine has not siphoned off gas; all the gas has been delivered to Europe. Point three: Ukraine is not a debtor and has paid in full for 2008, down to the last kopeck. Point four: Ukraine initiated the invitation of international experts to monitor the Ukrainian gas transportation system. Point five: we have been and remain a constructive party in the talks with Russia until the signing of the agreement for 2009 or the strategic agreement based on the October 2008 memorandum," Yulia Tymoshenko declared.
The conclusion is that Ukraine has tried to enlist the support of the European Union in exchange for the promise to stop "taking off" Russian gas destined for Europe. Yet last week Mr Topolanek stubbornly refused to interfere in the dispute between Gazprom and Naftogaz, claiming it was a purely "commercial" issue. This time, he allowed the framework document on gas supply monitoring to be turned into a podium for continuing the argument with Gazprom.
Pavel Arabov, Alexander Latyshev