Printout of the November 21 programme
FAT AND LEAN YEARS
THEME: TEFLON PRIME MINISTER
What's the point of increasing the presidential term? The most widespread opinion is as follows: the economic crisis makes the Government everybody's scapegoat. Inflation, unemployment and poverty are sending the popularity rating of Vladimir Putin's Cabinet down. In the past eight years the Russian political system has had only one flimsy support: Mr Putin's personal popularity. To keep afloat, the establishment should save face at all cost. This is what Russia's near future might be: first come constitutional amendments, followed by early election, in which the electorate would exercise its right to vote for a new president and State Duma in compliance with the updated constitution. So Putin will return to presidency or become the Speaker of Parliament, where United Russia has an absolute majority.
Surprisingly few have commented on the correlation between the Prime Minister's rating and public opinion of the crisis. 66% of respondents in a Levada Centre poll said they approved of the Government's actions in September 2008, just before the meltdown, against 61% in November. Putin's rating fell from 88% in September to 86% in November.
The Government's rating was paradoxically 46% and 53%, respectively, in similar polls conducted by the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Centre, or VTsIOM.
Public Opinion Foundation figures also show Mr Putin's immunity to crisis-73% in September and 71% in November. All fluctuations were within the limits of tolerable error even during a global crisis. The Teflon Prime Minister's reputation is proof against trials and tribulations.
The situation may change, however. Possibly, the Kremlin is really planning to hold early elections-but then, a fixed leadership works in periods of prosperity and fails during lean years. Look at recent history-Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko were good with a steady petrodollar inflow, but even Gorbachev, the daring reformer, could not keep at the helm when it dwindled.
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EXPERT TALK ON THE "ANTI-CRISIS PACT"
Novaya Gazeta interviews Lilia SHEVTSOVA, senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Centre.
Novaya Gazeta: Yury Luzhkov said he approved of holding elections for governors. What do you think of the Moscow Mayor's opinion, which he actually quickly took back?
SHEVTSOVA: Mintimer Shaimiyev and Murtaza Rakhimov said the same thing last summer. To all appearances, they were testing the flexibility of the system. Possibly, the Tatar and Bashkir presidents intend to use their lobbying power to secure succession. Whatever it might be, their opinions promote Russian development. The system we have now is inflexible and unlikely to last long. Such systems are less crisis-proof than ones with fully developed lower administrative levels. If the crisis gets worse, the consensus of elites achieved by Putin might fail. Indicatively, a public majority (two thirds, according to the Levada Centre) approves of electing governors.
NG: We see the segmentation of the elite in other fields, too.
S: Right. The business community and the middle class are in two minds. Now, the "anti-crisis pact" proposed by Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin might bring the political elite and the entire nation into an entirely new state.
NG: The social contract Russia has had until recently could be described as "We will tolerate you earning and spending money as long as you keep away from politics." How would you formulate it now?
S: Medvedev and Putin have proposed a new model of social consensus-the President in his state-of-the-nation address and the Prime Minister in his speech at the United Russia party congress. Medvedev referred to Russia's foreign policy, which was rather bellicose, and domestic policy. His Ten Points included prospects of limited democratic reforms that should go hand in hand with extending presidential and parliamentary terms. It was a deal, in a sense-the leadership will liberalise the system without changing its essence while the people will put up with longer terms. Vladimir Putin's address concerned other-social and economic-aspects of the "anti-crisis pact". He promised the population social guarantees, even from the Reserve Fund, plus a fiscal reform. The package is hopeful, especially from the economic point of view. It also hints that nothing matters more to the elites than accord between them and public acceptance of the status quo with the same leadership.
NG: What do you think about pre-term elections?
S: They are quite possible. It all depends on what will happen towards the end of the year and at the start of next year. The prospect presents Putin with new opportunities. He has chosen for now the role of an anti-crisis manager, who arranges a party and government top-down command structure parallel to the presidential. He is the bearer and guarantor of the previous social consensus-that is, the stability of the fat years. Now, he wants to modify it into the stability of lean years. So he might cause problems instead of settling them. In particular, he might become something of an obstacle to Medvedev as decision-making is impaired when a prime minister outshines a president.
There is a way to overcome the crisis within such a system. Take the Yeltsin-Primakov tandem, in which Yeltsin reigned in politics while Primakov bore the brunt-and saved the national economy. That was the end of his career because a strong Prime Minister was the last thing Yeltsin wanted.
Now, Putin is also facing a dilemma. If he steers Russia out of the crisis, he will change the political system de facto. The two in the tandem will exchange roles. I think he sees it will be impossible. If he does, he will have to step down. That is the reason for the present hurried search for his new job-the more options the better.
History knows many effective leaders whose career started in a crisis to go on in the times of stability. But the world has never seen a leader who achieved success in the years of prosperity and carried on to get his country out of a crisis. Roosevelt and de Gaulle rescued their countries out of crises their predecessors could not cope with. I am not sure Putin and Medvedev will reverse the paradigm.
The Power programme is aired on Radio Ekho Moskvy in a live broadcast every Friday at 8 pm, Moscow time.