The struggle to ensure that Russia's aggression doesn't succeed has not ended.
IT'S BEEN more than two months since a cease-fire ended fighting between Russia and Georgia and 11 days since Russian troops withdrew into two breakaway provinces that have declared themselves independent states. But the battle over whether Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev will ultimately gain or lose from their aggression goes on. By now it appears fairly clear that one of the Kremlin's principal objectives -- the overthrow of Georgia's democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili -- will not be realized. Nor has Georgia's previously flourishing economy been irretrievably damaged; arguably, Russia has suffered even more from the flight of foreign investors spooked by the war.
On the other hand, more than 7,000 Russian troops are entrenched in the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, including several small areas controlled by Georgia before the war. Moscow thus remains in violation of Mr. Medvedev's commitment to return to the status quo of Aug. 7, when the fighting began. Thousands of ethnic Georgians whose villages were looted and burned while under Russian occupation have been unable to return home. This week Russia torpedoed the first meeting it had agreed to for negotiating a long-term settlement by insisting that the governments of the two provinces -- which have not been recognized as independent states by any country other than Russia and Nicaragua -- be treated as equals with Georgia and the United States.
Despite this, some European governments are anxious to declare the Georgian conflict over and return to normal relations with Moscow. In the time remaining to it, the Bush administration should do its best to prevent this from happening, unless Mr. Putin is willing to retreat further. The United States and Europe should work together to persuade Moscow to observe international law rather than press ahead with independence claims for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russian companies that invest in the two provinces without obtaining the approval of the Georgian government can be sued, sanctioned and eventually prohibited from doing business in the West. The territories should be placed under an international trusteeship while their future is negotiated, as was done for the former Serbian province of Kosovo.
It's vital that the Georgian war becomes a net loss for Moscow, because that is the best way to ensure that the same sort of aggression is not directed at Ukraine or other independent states on Russia's borders. At the same time, it should lead to a consolidation of Georgian democracy, along with a clear acceptance by its government that the embrace of human rights -- and not military force -- is the best defense of a small country. Mr. Saakashvili has promised much-needed steps to ensure freer media, more independent courts and robust political competition in his country; the Bush administration should insist that he follow through.
