As Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin prepares for his official visit to Turkey on Thursday, a Russian pundit has claimed that one of the main goals Putin has for this visit is to deliver a message to Turkey that its steps toward becoming an energy hub for Europe may not guarantee a stronger position in its quest to become a member of the European Union.
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs quarterly, shared his remarks with Today»s Zaman on a variety of hot topics in Turkish-Russian bilateral relations, including the standoff on oil and gas transportation, nuclear energy tenders and the changing course of relations in the new world order of modern international politics.
He pointed to the rising competition between the two countries on energy transportation, in which Turkey is attempting to position itself as an alternative, challenging Russia»s dominant position as the main supplier for hungry European markets. According to Lukyanov, economy and politics are inseparable from each other in this competition. "Whenever the question of whether these alternative energy projects are economically feasible is raised, the political questions also start to resurface," he noted. In this framework, Lukyanov notes, neither Nabucco nor South Stream is completely free from problems.
The defeat of the pro-Russian Socialist government in Bulgaria in the elections held in early July jeopardized Russia»s plans for the South Stream pipeline, Lukyanov said, adding that Moscow»s South Stream project also lacks support from the US and Europe.
Nabucco also has some unsolved issues threatening its success, including finding sufficient gas supplies to keep the pipeline filled.
"In the center of the struggle in this issue lies Turkey, and I reckon the best idea for Turkey is to see this situation in economic terms, rather than from a political perspective. Ankara»s chances in its relations with the EU are on the rise thanks to its position at the crossroads of energy transportation routes. But I personally believe that Brussels will not change its policy to say «yes» to Turkey for economic issues while saying «no» for politics," Lukyanov explained.
In the grand chessboard of the regional energy game, Lukyanov believes enmity is not the correct term to define the relations between Russia and Turkey. Russia is in favor of Turkey»s staying an independent power in the region, he said, claiming that Putin will emphasize this belief during his visit. Russia is a strong proponent of Turkey»s right to make its own decisions independently from any kind of foreign influence and in accordance with its own interests, Lukyanov underlined, saying, "Moscow wants to see Ankara as a long-term strategic partner." Besides, Lukyanov said, Russians believe Turkey must avoid involvement in any political games with the EU, since these games will not end in Turkey»s best interests.
Blue Stream-2 has a chance
Asked if there is any future for Blue Stream-2, a projected appendix to the current Blue Stream pipeline to deliver Russian gas to some Middle Eastern countries such as Israel, Lukyanov said the chances of success are quite high for this project since developing an existing pipeline is much easier than creating a new one. The integral question for Blue Stream-2 remains the guarantee of consumption in the market once delivery starts, as in all new projects, he noted, adding: "Energy pundits have varying expectations on this matter. Some are claiming that demand will climb rapidly in the near future while some others believe that it will continue to ebb. In addition to this uncertainty, the swift change in demand imposes political influence on the decision-making mechanism."
To exemplify this, Lukyanov recalled what happened in the case of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline project. "In the 1990s," he said, "the project was not able to attract the attention of the companies that primarily sought commercial benefits. Then the US engaged in the decision phase of the project and got it rolling. Looking at the success of the project now, we can easily see how appropriate the US stance was," Lukyanov commented.
Nuclear power plant may stimulate bilateral relations
The Russian journalist also commented on the process of constructing Turkey»s first nuclear energy plant and its possible implications on Turkish-Russian relations.
It has already been noted in a number of media reports that cooperation on nuclear energy is one of the issues Putin will bring to the discussion table with Turkish government officials.
A Russian-led consortium was the only bidder last year in a tender for the construction of Turkey»s first nuclear energy power plant in Mersin, but its chances of winning the tender are still not certain, since the consortium»s bid for the price of electricity per kilowatt-hour was too high.
Officials say Putin will likely sign a nuclear cooperation agreement with Turkey that aims to pave the way for the construction of a nuclear energy reactor. Speculation also suggests that a number of incentives will be deposited in Putin»s briefcase in return for his removal of blocks to the path of building the nuclear reactor.
"For me, the failure to sign an agreement to allow the Russian-led consortium to build the power plant would have no negative effect on bilateral relations," he said, claiming that Russia would go to great lengths to realize the project for their mutual interests. Lukyanov also asserted that construction of the nuclear power plant is important not only to allow Ru ssia to have a more prominent presence in the global nuclear energy market but also to trigger a higher potential in relations between the two nations. "For example, the nuclear power plant in Bushehr forms the core of Russian-Iranian relations," Lukyanov asserted.
YAŞAR NIYAZBAYEV