Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's growing political stature is increasing the possibility that he will stand for re-election in 2012 in spite of widespread assumptions that Vladimir Putin will return, according to a Kremlin adviser.
Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin, who is prime minister, will have to decide by the autumn of 2010 which of them would run for president in 2012, Gleb Pavlovsky, a political consultant and adviser to the president, told the Financial Times. A prompt decision was important to avoid signs of disagreement and prepare for a proper election campaign.
The relationship between the Russian leaders has been a subject of much intrigue. Many observers have assumed that Mr Medvedev is a caretaker president, who will stay in power until Mr Putin, who was constitutionally barred from seeking a third presidential term in 2008, wants the job back.
But Mr Pavlovsky, a consummate Kremlin insider who advised both Mr Putin and Boris Yeltsin, his predecessor, said that the candidate for the presidency in 2012 would be the one who emerged best from the economic crisis. As Mr Medvedev's stature has grown so has his clout to decide his political destiny.
Mr Pavlovsky said neither candidate could regard the decision to run as a fait accompli. "Putin can't tell Medvedev ‘Hey look, stand aside, I'm going to be the candidate'," he said.
"I think if Medvedev's presidency is successful, Putin will not try to move him out ... If the strengthening of Medvedev's stature continues, as it is now, then Putin will not enter his candidacy."
He said that both men knew they could not run against each other in 2012, as "this would be the signs not just of a split, [but of] an open confrontation".
"I don't think that either will allow this to happen. Someone will have to stand aside, and this is why it is important for Medvedev to show results, to prove his worthiness to seek a second term."
The 2012 elections are likely to be the first time a political transition has taken place in Russia without a single dominant political figure, combining constitutional power with informal influence and able to ensure his will is implemented.
Most observers assume that the real influence in Russia still stands with Mr Putin, to whom most high-ranking bureaucrats owe their jobs and loyalty. His approval rating remains higher than Mr Medvedev's, between 60 per cent and 80 per cent, in spite of the economic crisis that has seen unemployment hit 10 per cent in March.
But Mr Medvedev's authority has grown and he wields the constitutional authority to fire Mr Putin, although few believe it would come to that. "There is no schism," said Mr Pavlovsky. "People expected one, but it hasn't happened ... A serious split would be impossible to hide."
Nonetheless, both men have demonstrated markedly different styles of governing. Mr Medvedev has emerged as a more liberal figure, giving his first domestic newspaper interview to the opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta.
Mr Putin, on the other hand, has steered a more hardline path, allying himself with the so-called "siloviki", a clique of former spies and security men.