The Russian leader claims to be expecting major concessions from the Obama administration.
VLADIMIR PUTIN'S unsubtle campaign to intimidate President-elect Barack Obama continues apace. In a broadcast appearance Thursday, the Russian prime minister claimed to have detected some "positive signals" from the incoming administration. For example, "we hear from people close to the president-elect" that "there should be no rush" toward NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia, because "one should not spoil relations with Russia." Also, "we already hear that [Obama] should rethink the expediency of deploying" missile defense systems.
In other words, what Mr. Putin claims to understand is that the new U.S. government will surrender on the two pressure points Moscow has been using in its attempt to reestablish itself as an imperial power in Europe and a counterweight to the United States. He suggests that Mr. Obama will give up the U.S. policy of supporting eventual NATO membership for the two countries on Russia's borders that are seeking to establish themselves as liberal democracies and abandon the Bush administration's compacts with the Polish and Czech governments to install missile interceptors and a radar system aimed at Iran.
We don't believe that Mr. Obama has any intention of caving in to such bluster. But Mr. Putin's rhetoric underlines two early and difficult issues the administration will have to manage, not only with Russia but with European allies who will try to tug the new president in different directions.
At its final NATO ministerial meeting this week, the Bush administration barely managed to finesse the issue of Georgia and Ukraine. Though NATO resolved at a summit this year that the two countries will eventually become members, Germany and Italy now lead a group of countries that, following Russia's invasion of Georgia in August, want to stop any steps toward that goal. Former Warsaw Pact countries such as Poland and Lithuania, by contrast, argue that only firm NATO support for Ukraine and Georgia -- and a more tangible presence in their own countries -- will deter further Russian aggression.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice finally agreed to a compromise in which Georgia and Ukraine will begin programs to prepare for NATO but will not, for now, be awarded the "membership action plan" that previous candidates have used. NATO also renewed its endorsement of a European-based missile defense. That essentially leaves both initiatives in a gray zone; the Obama administration will have to decide whether to use the ambiguous NATO mandate to provide vigorous support for Ukraine and Georgia, and whether to press ahead with the missile defense deals struck by the Bush administration.
Legitimate questions exist about whether the outgoing administration has unreasonably rushed the missile system and about the reliability of the current governments of Georgia and Ukraine. But Mr. Putin's words are a reminder of another reality: Any retreat by the new administration on these issues will be taken by the Kremlin as a victory for its neo-imperialist project and as a sign of Mr. Obama's weakness. The "signals" Mr. Putin receives from the new president need not be provocative or antagonistic, but when it comes to defending the independence of Russia's democratic neighbors, Mr. Obama's message must be firm.