Afanasy Sborov
Last week marked a landmark of sorts: Vladimir Putin has now been Prime Minister for exactly the same period as his first premiership in 1999. This prompted Vlast to compare the two premiers' track records. It found that the Putin of 1999 was far more active than the Putin of 2008, but had shown rather less interest in the domestic economy.
Vladimir Putin was appointed Acting Prime Minister by President Yeltsin's Decree on August 9, 1999 and was confirmed by the State Duma on August 16. On December 31 of that same year, Putin became Acting President after Yeltsin resigned. Thus the future Russian President was Prime Minister for 144 days.
On May 8, 2008, the day after Dmitry Medvedev's inauguration as President, ex-President Vladimir Putin was confirmed as Prime Minister by the State Duma. His first 144 days as Prime Minister came to an end on September 28, providing Vlast with a legitimate reason to compare the activities of the two Prime Ministers named Putin. The comparison reveals that the similarities between the two are almost as few as between the Presidents who ruled Russia in 1999 and 2008.
Looking at official statistics, one is struck by the difference in the level of activity of the two premiers. The first-term Prime Minister Putin logged 135 working days in less than five months in 1999, compared with the only 112 working days former President Putin accumulated in 2008. For example, according to official reports, he took eight days off in August alone, something he never did in 1999 (he took a record four days off in November).
Even more striking is the difference in the total number of events in which Putin took part: Putin-99 attended 455 events while Putin-2008 attended only 252 events. In his first stint as Prime Minister, Putin held more meetings and conferences, either in person or over the phone - although he logged fewer appearances at various events and "talks", which official reports for some odd reason single out as a special line, separate from other "meetings" and "negotiations".
However, if one compares the political situation of his two terms, these differences are easy to explain. Putin-99 was not only a Prime Minister, but an official heir to President Yeltsin, and thus had to build up his presidential election approval rating from its initial 2% at the time he was appointed head of government. In 2008 Putin had no need to prove himself, because at the time of his move from the Kremlin to the White House (Government House), his approval rating topped 80% (see charts). Therefore, Putin-99 was hyperactive, tirelessly campaigning in the regions, flying fighter planes and addressing sundry meetings and conferences. By contrast, Putin-2008 could afford to concentrate on office and economic work in order to build up his credentials as a savvy economic manager.
In terms of the number of meetings (including negotiations and talks) the two Prime Ministers are about even, with 137 for Putin-99 and 133 for Putin-2008. Not counting multi-lateral meetings, of which the present head of government had 22, the ratios of the Prime Minister's meetings with Russians to ones with foreigners is practically the same: 63% to 37% in 1999 and 65% to 35% in 2008.
Putin-99 received governors more frequently (16% versus 13.5%) and Putin-2008 received members of his Government and the heads of federal agencies more frequently (24% versus 6.5%). This difference can readily be attributed to a shift in political accents. While Putin as presidential successor in 1999 had to win over regional leaders, many of whom bore grudges against the Kremlin, in 2008 the ex-President already had a solid grip on the regions and could therefore devote his efforts to establishing a firmer grip on the Government.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, which affirms that Vladimir Putin is still the ruler (28% of respondents in the poll taken in September by the Levada Centre) or that Putin and Medvedev are sharing power (48%), official statistics attest that Prime Minister Putin does not encroach on President Medvedev's exclusive powers. For instance, in his first 144 days as Prime Minister he had no personal meetings with the military and security heads (siloviki), who under the Constitutional Law On the Government report directly to the President.
The situation in 1999 was different: at that time, Prime Minister Putin was holding meetings with the head of the Federal Migration Service, Chief of the General Staff, the Minister for Emergency Situations and the Foreign Minister (like the siloviki, the Foreign Minister reports directly to the President) and chaired the meetings of the Federal Anti-Terrorist Commission and some conferences on military matters. Putin-99 had many more talks with representatives of political parties than Putin-2008 (32 compared to 10). True, many of these meetings took place on the eve of the Duma vote to confirm him as Prime Minister, because at the time the candidate for the post of Prime Minister was virtually unknown to most deputies. Finally, Prime Minister Putin-1999 had twice as many meetings with the presidents of foreign countries, traditionally the President's prerogative, than Putin-2008 (15 versus 8).
On the whole, a comparison of the list of politicians with whom Vladimir Putin met most frequently in 1999 and 2008 (see Table 2) suggests that he had somewhat more reverence for President Yeltsin than he has for President Medvedev (20 meetings versus 13). It is also notable that none of his favourite interlocutors in 1999 were on the list of Prime Minister Putin's interlocutors in 2008.
The schedules of the two Prime Ministers' business trips and the lists of their working meetings also suggest that unlike Putin-2008, Putin-99 had to act as head of state more frequently. In 1999 the Prime Minister made 37 trips away from Moscow, versus 26 in 2008. During his first premiership, 11 of his trips (30%) were made abroad, compared with only four (15%) in 2008. Furthermore, Vladimir Putin's four internal trips in 1999 (to Mozdok, Botlikh, Znamenskoye and Makhachkala) were in one way or another connected with the "little victorious war" Russia launched in response to the invasion of Dagestan by Chechen militants, led by Shamil Basayev, and the explosions of residential blocks in some Russian cities. In 2008 Putin made only one "military-related" trip: to North Ossetia on August 9 to personally supervise the delivery of humanitarian aid to the citizens of South Ossetia and visited a hospital for the fighters wounded during the "peace-enforcement operation".
In regards to the regions favoured by the two Prime Ministers, one should note Putin-99's predilection for visiting St Petersburg (five trips) and Putin-2008's preference for Sochi (four visits). All the other cities that Vladimir Putin visited during his two premierships appear on the list only once. However, during his two premierships there were five places that he visited twice: Minsk and Tashkent in the "near abroad", Arkhangelsk, Rostov-on-Don and Vladivostok in Russia.
In general, however, Putin's two premierships have much in common. For example, both premiers had to deal with war situations (in Dagestan-Chechnya and Georgia respectively), attend to party building (creating Unity and the new-look United Russia), strengthen of the battle-weary army and deal with the aftermath of the financial crisis (the 1998 crisis struck a year before Putin was appointed Prime Minister, but was much more painful for the country than the current one). All that is missing to complete the list of similarities is an early resignation of the incumbent President, as happened on December 31, 1999, which would automatically turn Prime Minister Vladimir Putin into Acting President Putin.