Syuzanna Farizova, Natalia Bespalova
The day after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had hours-long meeting with political analysts and journalists and members of the Valdai Club, the same group attended another meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev. Speaking on Russia's role on a global scale, the Prime Minister and the President actually switched roles: Putin elaborated more on Russia's domestic and foreign policy, while Medvedev spoke on strengthening the rouble, the national economy and investment appeal. This re-casting of roles came as no surprise to meeting attendees.
Medvedev's meeting with Valdai Club members was held at Moscow's State Department Store (GUM). The President walked the distance from the Kremlin's Spassky Gate to GUM at a brisk pace, then entered the mall's banquet hall where journalists and political analysts waited.
Since 2004, the year the Valdai International Discussion Club was initiated, Club members have annually enjoyed a relationship with the President, "giving the Club's events a very special status," as the Club's official website says. This year, the Club events' status was updated: prior to meeting with the President, Valdai members met Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The latter's predecessors, Mikhail Fradkov, Russian Prime Minister from 2004 through September 2007, and Viktor Zubkov, who took the position from September 2007 through May 2008, never met with Club members.
Putin spoke for over three hours to the Valdai Club, while Medvedev, though "being desperately short of time," still managed a more than two-hour speech, one attendee said.
Putin touched on the issues of domestic and foreign policy, international law and the aggravated relations between Russia and the West (see Kommersant, September 12). During Putin's presidency, these issues fell beyond the Prime Minister's prerogative, to be considered only by the President. The Prime Minister didn't discuss economic issues at the meeting's public session, and neither did meeting participants.
At the same time, Medvedev, while discussing economic issues, touched on political issues only once, speaking critically of the unipolar world and calling the events which occurred on August 8, the day the war in South Ossetia broke out, equal to the events of 9/11 in the U.S. Most of his speech was devoted to issues more common for a governmental official, such as strengthening the rouble, the investment atmosphere in Russia and natural gas supplies to Europe.
Medvedev tried his best to persuade the analysts of Russia's economic wellbeing. Russia's stock market crash, with indexes falling by about 40% since the beginning of the year, was linked by the President to "various conflicts which pose problems for the economy."
However, he said, three fourths of the current stock market index change in Russia resulted from the global financial crisis, while one quarter comes from internal problems, including the war in the Caucasus. Optimistically, he said: "Shares of blue chip stocks in Russia's most attractive companies are still undervalued. Our market continues to expand (this was the case on Friday - see Kommersant) and therefore is more fluid and risky than traditional markets. There is nothing to fear, we just need to exhale and keep on developing the economy," he stressed.
Medvedev sounded even more optimistic in his estimation of the prospects for the national currency. "We should provide conditions for investors to hold part of their reserves in roubles. If we can prove the rouble's appeal, I am sure we'll be able to make it a reserve currency in the near future."
Developing cooperation with Asian countries is a priority for the Kremlin, Medvedev stressed, but not at the expense of economic collaboration with Europe: "If the country does not diversify its economic development towards the East, Russia's economy will have a limited future because the country's eastern regions will not develop as they should," the President said. "This is the reason we have to expand our cooperation with East-Asian countries. In terms of Russia's economy, there is no Asian opposition to a ‘European vector', and this is where multipolarity should be pursued. The global economy will be more stable if there are different economic centres, with influential exchanges active not only in London or Berlin but also in Asia."
Yet, Medvedev denied any suggestion that Russia's close cooperation with Asian countries might leave Europe without Russian natural gas, saying that in case of market expansion, the country is prepared to develop new gas deposits.
The conflict in the Caucasus will not affect Russia's investment appeal, Medvedev emphasized, saying the country does not intend to enclose itself off behind an "Iron Curtain." Still, sociologist Ariel Cohen noted after the meeting that the vast gap between Russia and the West is growing. "We have yet to reach its lowest point in the further expansion of our cooperation," Cohen said.
Meanwhile, 80% of the Valdai Club members share Russia's position o
n the South Ossetian conflict, Alexander Rahr, a Russia expert for the German Society for Foreign Affairs, noted after the meeting. British journalist Jonathan Steele added, "First, I thought it was a mistake, but now, after the Russian President and Prime Minister spoke on the justification for Russia's position, I would not disagree."
One of the meeting participants expressed regret over the fact that Medvedev did not mention domestic policy issues. Yet, according to initial comments, both the President and the Prime Minister succeeded in achieving their goal - that is, to show Valdai Club members the solidarity of Russian authorities. "Both Medvedev and Putin revealed a similar strategic view," Andranik Migranyan noted. "The difference was possibly in individual emphasis."
Nikolai Zlobin, director of the Russia and Eurasia Project at the World Security Institute, echoed this thought, "There was not a considerable distinction in the way the two approach issues, though one could point to minor differences in details and attitude. Maybe this is because Putin and Medvedev were mainly engaged in different things." According to Zlobin, Putin is now immensely enjoying his position. "He likes being the Prime Minister and going to work, as does Dmitry Medvedev." "The President regretted that the month Russia lost in the Russian-Georgian conflict could have been spent for more positive things," he noted.
Overall, the participants failed to find an answer to the burning question in Russian politics: namely, who dominates Russian leadership, Medvedev or Putin. "It is difficult to judge which of them is the country's leading figure, as only three months have passed since Medvedev was elected President," Zlobin said. "It is hard to undertake all levels of power in such a short period, and this is true of any country."