Vladimir Putin demonstrated belligerent pacifism.
Yesterday, during his meeting with western political scientists and journalists, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin responded to the accusations of "disproportionate use of force" in Georgia. Meanwhile, South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity stated that his republic will "certainly become part of Russia". Later Mr Kokoity said he was misunderstood, but Kommersant special correspondent Andrey Kolesnikov believes that Mr Kokoity's statement could be interpreted in only one possible way.
Valdai Club members - prominent western political scientists and journalists - gathered early in the morning at the Radisson Hotel conference center to meet with the Presidents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia first. Meanwhile all conversations in the lobby focused on the mouthwatering fresh lobsters they ate in Rostov-on-Don the day before, during their stopover on the way from Sochi.
Apart from Rostov-on-Don, the political analysts visited Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov in Grozny, who disarmed them (both literally and figuratively). They were taken on a sightseeing tour around the city, including the Chechen President's residence. Both impressed them greatly; still, they spoke about the lobsters.
Before meeting with the two independent republics' leaders, the experts and journalists had to pass through metal detectors. During the club's two days worth of meetings, participants apparently began to take the metal detectors in stride. I think they'll miss them after they leave.
An attractive woman in a red coat walked through the detector.
"Oh, Helene's here too!" rejoiced political analyst Andranik Migranyan, who, it seemed, worried mostly if he would be referred to as being a political scientist from the West or from the East. (Andranik Migranyan lives most of the time in New York now, which prompts him to reflect on his self-identification).
"Helene Carrere D'Encausse is Permanent Secretary of l'Institut de France," Mr Migranyan told me. "When you see her, you would think she's just a likable middle-aged woman. But when she starts talking about her friendship with General de Gaulle... You have to give her due respect."
Nikolai Zlobin, a distinguished American political scientist, came up to us. He has participated in every Valdai Club forum - he has never missed one, I guess. It was Nikolai Zlobin who told me a year ago in the presidential residence Bocharov Ruchei that he urged Vladimir Putin to give a written "guarantee" saying he would not run for president for the third consecutive time.
"I was the only person," Mr Zlobin told me immediately, "who warned the West of Abkhazia's bid for independence back ten years ago!"
"And what about South Ossetia?" I wondered.
"No, I didn't say anything about it at that time," Nikolai Zlobin laughed. "And I don't mean anything of that kind now. I'm an American expert, after all."
"And even before you said that, I published an article "Unbreakable Union?" with a question mark at the end," Andranik Migranyan retorted.
Another political analyst braved the metal detector.
"Oh," Mr Zlobin rejoiced, "it's him! He was the first of us to ask Putin a straightforward question "Are you going to leave or not?" And Putin answered, "And what would you recommend?" And he was left speechless!"
"Who?" I wanted to know.
It's hard to imagine a speechless Putin. He was not caught unawares even when he was asked to give a guarantee.
"That guy out there," Mr Zlobin pointed to a political scientist in his sixties. "That was quite a show..."
"Do we have a chance to see anything similar today?" I asked cautiously. "Journalists hope for something of that sort."
"We need a question," Nikolai Zlobin answered. "We need to ask Putin a very good question! I know you've got one!"
I really did have one, but Mr Migranyan noted wisely that it would be better if everyone asked their own questions. Nevertheless, I was sure that Mr Zlobin could cope without my help.
Suddenly the front doors opened and we saw two luxurious German cars halting at the entrance. Mr Bagapsh got out of the first car, with a security detail climbing from the second.
With the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the status of Sergei Bagapsh and Eduard Kokoity had grown by at least one limo each.
Answering a question from a Chinese political analyst, Mr Bagapsh stated that his republic doesn't appeal for help to anyone.
"We ask for only one thing: let us live and do not impede our development!" (Presumably, the remark didn't concern Russia - A.K.)
Sergei Bagapsh didn't say anything new. It would be naive to expect anything fresh from him, and the experts didn't even bother.
South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity also behaved as expected, but in front of this audience he only appeared defiant.
The first question for Mr Kokoity related to the number of casualties in the conflict. "Is it 2000? 1700? 300 people? We get different information," a political analyst tried to elicit the truth.
"More than 1600 people," Eduard Kokoity said with confidence. "The majority of the casualties were refugees trying to escape South Ossetia - they were shelled by Georgia's tanks and artillery. Many of them were buried on the territory of North Ossetia, in different places..."
In other words the death toll was hard to verify. However, a few minutes later the members of the club heard a more accurate figure from him - 1631 people.
An American correspondent asked Eduard Kokoity how much time it will take South and North Ossetia to unite. It didn't even occur to Mr Kokoity to wonder why a journalist was sure that the two republics would unite at all.
"No doubt, the reunification of North and South Ossetia is the restoration of historical justice," he stated. "It's an essential step we must take. South Ossetia will become part of Russia!"
Then he told the audience that someone had suggested that North Ossetia should secede from Russia to unite with South Ossetia, forming a larger independent republic.
"We were offered recognition even before Kosovo!" he exclaimed.
It became more or less clear who offered it - those who recognized Kosovo. But is it possible that these people ever contacted Eduard Kokoity at all?
"Yes, we'll surely join Russia," he reiterated.
It seemed the South Ossetian President didn't understand who was listening to him. He either didn't want to or was unable to think about what he was saying. He didn't bother to be evasive at all.
"Whatever the American ‘politbureau' says to deny having a hand in the conflict," he enjoyed using the Soviet word "politbureau" while referring to the U.S. establishment as he spoke before many who were part and parcel of that "politbureau", "American instructors trained the Georgian army!"
Eduard Kokoity didn't seem aware of the fact that he was not in the Kremlin at that moment - he addressed a far less cordial audience. They could easily fancy that Mr Kokoity had just revealed Russia's top secret plans in this war: within a few years South Ossetia will ask for admission to the Russian Federation, and it will be admitted because someone promised something like that.
In this way, the recognition of South Ossetia will turn out to be a practical annexation. No one will interpret his words any differently, and it is a point well taken.
Eduard Kokoity didn't appear to take any of this into account. He had a more important business: He had to make a clear statement, and nothing could prevent that.
Suddenly he seemed to regain a sense of cognizance remembering who he was facing.
"Whatever you do to train them (the Georgian military)," he addressed Club members, "whatever uniform and equipment you ship, they are good-for-nothing: they retreated like cowards! As to the masculinity of that man (Mr Saakashvili - A.K.), I wouldn't even mention it - it is simply absent!"
With his harsh rhetoric, Mr Kokoity seemed to be doing his best to make everything in Vladimir Putin's upcoming speech seem an act of peace and humility.
But what the Russian Prime Minister said later had nothing to do with the possible intentions of Mr Kokoity. Vladimir Putin was outraged as soon as he heard the first question. It actually risked becoming the last question. The Prime Minister had said earlier that his position was honest, open and blunt. But I couldn't have imagined that he could be so uncompromising.
Political scientist Jonathan Still asked him about the disproportionate use of force in South Ossetia, about the reasons for Russian bombers smashing Gori and Poti. Mr Still spoke for a long time. Apparently, that very word combination - "the disproportionate use of force" - made Vladimir Putin lose his temper.
"I'm not surprised to hear this question," he said. "I'm surprised at the might of the so-called West's propaganda machine! This is amazing, just astounding. It shouldn't wash, but it does somehow! Well, I know people are suggestible, and the average person doesn't follow developments attentively. It's easy to feed them any point of view. But I don't believe that the people present here are unaware of the reality, the way it all unfolded. Here is the truth: Georgia's armed forces began their operation to restore constitutional order, as they put it..."
He listed the events in their chronological order giving many details (much more than Mr Kokoity did), and I was astonished to see a frightened Mr Still nod permanently. His seat was opposite Vladimir Putin's, the table was in the form of a large oval, and the Prime Minister couldn't have reached Mr Still even if he'd attempted. But for all that, Jonathan Still seemed to be considering the possibility.
"Congratulations!" the Prime Minister went on. "I want to congratulate everyone engaged in it. Pretty good job. But the result is a failure. And it'll always be so if your policy is immoral. An immoral policy always loses."
A cameraman whispered to a correspondent standing next to him, "3.54," a time specification to easily find a quote in the footage: Vladimir Putin uttered it at the end of the fourth minute of his speech. A quote of this kind would be enough for a good article.
"Did you expect us to wipe our bleeding nose and bow our head down?" Mr Putin asked Mr Still.
He shook his head emphatically: no, you shouldn't.
"4.30," the cameraman whispered, and the correspondent jotted it down.
"Indeed, we went beyond South Ossetia, because there was military infrastructure there," Mr Putin continued. "What did you expect us to do? Brandish a penknife?"
"4.52."
"Did you expect us to fight with slingshots?"
"5.05!"
"They should have known they'd get what was coming to them!"
"5.07..."
"This said, I have explained our military strategy. Now, ..." the Prime Minister spoke in complete and undue silence. "What did the Second World War start with? What did it end with? Did we have to stop at the Russian border? To stop and just fire a few rounds from there...?"
After that, Vladimir Putin said abruptly, "So, let's negotiate...!"
Experts looked at each other. They didn't quite understand.
Meanwhile Vladimir Putin offered a timeline for Kosovo's recognition ("We swallowed it!" - "11.03!").
"That is why Russian President Dmitry Medvedev proposed the peaceful conflict settlement principles," Mr Putin finished with pleasure, leaving the audience at sixes and sevens.
Meanwhile we learnt that Mr Kokoity was backpedaling with regard to his statement about the inevitable reunification of the two Ossetias. He said they misunderstood him and that he meant something different.
Surely, he was prompted to realize his mistake. (It's unlikely that he should have understood it without help). However, it was difficult, or hardly possible, I'd say, to misunderstand his phrase "We'll certainly become part of Russia!" But some media managed to do it nevertheless.
The Valdai Club's meeting with Vladimir Putin lasted about three hours; Mr Putin offered even more crowd-pleasing quotes.
For example, he said that when he was in China, he met with the country's leaders and told them he was aware of China's problems with Taiwan and other similar challenges. He stated that he would not "plague" the Chinese government with the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Also, Vladimir Putin sent a clear message that he was thinking about the recognition of the independence back on August 8, when the military operation began.
Vladimir Putin once again defended US President George Bush, in spite of the complicated relationship between the US and Russia after August 8, "I treat Bush better than many Americans."
Answering a question regarding the possible annihilation of a whole class of nuclear weapons, for example, surface weapons, Vladimir Putin stated unexpectedly that if he had been told about it two or three years ago, he would have frankly replied he did not believe it to be probable, but now he'd say that the world could abandon nuclear weapons all together, but unfortunately, no one wants to be the first to disarm. It was the statement that impressed Club members the most - the effect was even stronger than Vladimir Putin's statement regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
As to his relations with Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin said that the President is the supreme commander-in-chief and no tank or soldier will move without his order. Mr Putin also insisted that Dmitry Medvedev was free to decide what to do.
"How long will you work as Prime Minister?" asked Nikolai Zlobin, who took time preparing his good question.
"It's up to God," replied Vladimir Putin, probably realizing that he won't cope with this question without God's help.
