Andrei Kolesnikov, Tashkent
By supporting Russia's gas project but not the independence of the Caucasian republics.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed a package deal in Tashkent yesterday. He secured the consent of Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov to the building of a new gas pipeline in his country and to the European price formula for the gas bought by Gazprom, but Mr Putin failed to include Uzbekistan's support for the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the deal, as our special correspondent ANDREI KOLESNIKOV reports.
Vladimir Putin arrived in Tashkent the evening before and immediately went into a meeting with Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov, which is apparently when the first discussion of all the issues took place. As usual, the press had no clue as to the results of that conversation, so one had to glean information from off-hand remarks made by political leaders and economics experts the following day.
During one-on-one talks, the Uzbekistan Prime Minister said that the switch to a new price formula for Uzbek gas proposed by Russia ushered in a new stage in the cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan. This seems to suggest that Uzbekistan agreed with the new price proposed by Gazprom, $300 per thousand cubic metres.
It would have been odd if Uzbekistan had turned the price down, as it is almost twice the current price; but things are complicated by the fact that Gazprom proposed the price as part of a package: there is a plan to build a new long-distance pipeline from Turkmenistan to Russia via Uzbekistan. For Uzbekistan, which is living through another period of rapprochement with the West, this is still an unresolved issue.
Nonetheless, it would be logical to assume that if Uzbekistan accepts one part of the package, it accepts the other part as well. Knowing the complicated history of the relations between Uzbek and Russian leaders, this cannot be taken for granted.
These fears were confirmed by Mr Putin when he met with the Uzbek President at his residence.
Islam Karimov was gushing praise for Mr Putin, repeating the sentence he first addressed to him in 2000: "I could go on a reconnaissance mission with Vladimir Putin at any moment." Judging from the fact that he repeated that sentence in 2008 even more emphatically, it seems that Putin did not take up Islam Karimov's offer during the eight years of his presidency.
Mr Karimov's monologue was replete with all sorts of unpleasant hints for the Russian Prime Minister:
"We will consider a range of topical and pressing issues that we see and observe, on which we have our own opinion and which we are ready not only to discuss together with you, but to frankly express our position on," Islam Karimov said, in somewhat convoluted language.
The message, however, was clear: the Uzbek President failed to back the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia during the SCO summit in Dushanbe and he was indicating that he would not back it now, at least not publicly.
A couple of years ago, Islam Karimov seemed less self-confident when he came to Novo-Ogaryovo, as he had just ordered his police to shoot down a civilian demonstration in the city of Andizhan and his regime did not appear to be secure, least of all to him.
He had come to Novo-Ogaryovo seeking support, and he got it. Mr Putin expressed his support for Mr Karimov in straightforward, not convoluted, language. Now he was denied the reciprocity he had probably counted on, and absolutely logically so. Islam Karimov has always acted in character, and in that sense, Vladimir Putin became a victim of Karimov's integrity.
Karimov was equally evasive when speaking about the supplies of Uzbek gas to Russia and the outlook for the construction of the Caspian pipeline. Apparently Mr Putin had expressed doubts that Uzbekistan would meet its commitments under the project, because otherwise he would not have told Mr Karimov that he had agreed with the Uzbek Prime Minister on "how Russia and Uzbekistan would act in the framework of the adopted plans."
"But we would like you, as the President of the country, to confirm these commitments, because it is important both for Uzbekistan and Russia, as well as for Turkmenistan and for our partners, including in the West," Vladimir Putin added. "Whatever sphere we look at - transport, delivery, the sale of gas... - all these issues must be resolved not for a year or two, but for the medium-term and long-term," the Uzbek President said.
Thus, he is not particularly pleased with the use of the European formula to set the gas price proposed by Putin and Gazprom; that is, he prefers the formula that sets the price at $300. On the other hand, he is not very confident it will stay that way, and apparently would like to have it fixed for 10 years or so. He is undeterred by the fact that the market price is likely to grow, and instead is only considering a potential drop in prices.
The talks lasted more than two hours and came to an unexpected end: it was reported that Islam Karimov got somewhat mixed up in his vague hints and agreed with Mr Putin's down-to-earth proposals on building a new branch of the gas pipeline, parallel to the Central Asia-Centre 1 and Central Asia-Centre 2 lines that are being modernised.
If, as Russian leaders claimed, these two lines rendered meaningless the idea of the Nabucco pipeline bypassing Russia, the new decision should make it even less relevant.
It also happened that Islam Karimov agreed to the Uzbek gas price of $300, as well as the European formula of calculating the price. He also mentioned medium- and long-term considerations during his public appearance before journalists at the start of the talks.
True, Mr Karimov said nothing about the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, one way or the other. However, the Russian diplomats who attended a dinner in honour of Vladimir Putin's visit to Uzbekistan noted the Uzbek President's toast, in which he "gave an objective assessment of the actions of the Georgian military on the territory of South Ossetia."
Judging from the fact that it was Russian, and not American, diplomats who described Mr Karimov's assessment as objective, the assessment fully satisfied Mr Putin. He would have been even more pleased if Mr Karimov had delivered his toast while looking into the TV camera, but apparently this was too much to ask of Mr Karimov.
After the talks, Mr Putin was supposed to approach journalists in the residence's lounge, but the meeting's format was unexpectedly changed and within minutes, we were all sitting at a table waiting for the Prime Minister.
Sitting down with us, he confirmed that he had agreed with Islam Karimov about beginning construction of a new gas pipeline across Uzbekistan. He mentioned that Gazprom would be buying gas from Uzbekistan in accordance with the European price formula.
"There were many technical details," Mr Putin said, including how to estimate transport costs and what Gazprom's profit margin would be (the latter consideration is by no means at the bottom of the priorities - A.K.). ..."
He listed several more problems and announced that agreement had been reached on all of them, adding that Gazprom's top managers were hammering out the final details.
I asked Vladimir Putin how he assessed the results of the EU summit: on the one hand, they could be seen as an ultimatum - no negotiations on a new partnership agreement with the EU until the Russian troops left Georgian territory; on the other hand, there was not a word about EU sanctions in the resolution.
Vladimir Putin's reaction was swift: "There are no Russian troops on Georgian territory. There are peacekeepers who occupy their place in the security zone stipulated under earlier agreements. We have not crossed that line. The number of peacekeepers has even been reduced, although under international agreements Russia has the right to take additional security measures - that is, to increase their number. But we haven't done that."
Vladimir Putin recognises that the French President and some other European leaders such as Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel "are genuinely trying to understand the source of the problem and find a way out."
"Whether or not they're doing it successfully is another question," the Prime Minister could not refrain from adding.
He also shared his idea that, while formerly, the Soviet Union and Russia were depicted as "the bogeyman" because of attempts to impose energy sanctions on European states, "now some political leaders are trying to scare us with sanctions."
Mr Putin, as it turned out, had read the EU summit's final document.
"Thank God, common sense has prevailed," he said. "We see no extreme conclusions. Yet look at point one of the instructions. What does it read? That Russia had used disproportionate measures... Obviously we are talking about an aggression on the part of Georgia." He sounded frustrated, as if he was tired of bashing his head against a brick wall. "Why hasn't it been reflected? Why doesn't it have a word of sympathy for the victims of the aggression in South Ossetia?"
Indeed, Mr Putin had gone to the trouble of watching a live press conference of the EU leaders ("I had such an opportunity," he said). He was pleased to note that the French President had referred to the "Saakashvili regime" (apparently after hearing the expression used again and again during his talks with Messrs Medvedev and Putin).
"I agree with Mr Sarkozy," Vladimir Putin explained. "It is appropriate. It shows that Georgia has a regime of personal power and there is nothing democratic about that power. After all, nobody describes the French government as the Sarkozy regime. Nobody speaks about an Angela Merkel regime... or a Gordon Brown regime..." Vladimir Putin added.
He elaborated that he was thinking about the Russian troops in the city of Poti, something that is made frequently discussed in the West, and apparently now in the East, North and South.
"There are no Russian troops in Poti," the Prime Minister said. There are peacekeepers not far from Poti within the zone stipulated under the agreements. Everybody knows it."
However, he does not quite understand what business American naval vessels have off the Georgian shores.
"Of course, it is a matter of taste," Mr Putin commented. "It is another question why humanitarian aid has to be delivered by naval vessels."
It was clear that, even during the press conference, he felt as if he was on the battlefield.
"Our reaction will be adequate," he concluded.
"What will be the reaction?"
"You will see."
It looks as if it won't be long before we see it.
When somebody asked whether the Russian troops actually intended to blow up Georgia's energy system, Mr Putin bristled:
"We had no intention of interfering in energy processes... Nothing has been confirmed. We know what energy security is and we cherish it ourselves."
"Even the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline is functioning," somebody said.
"Baku-Ceyhan is not functioning," the Prime Minster corrected him. "There was an explosion on Turkish territory. The Turks said it was done by the Kurdish Workers' Party. I don't know. That's what our Turkish partners told us."
Vladimir Putin had some cheerful words to say about the prospects for the Russian economy and the inflow of foreign investments ("on the whole we will see a large influx, around $30-40 billion") suggesting that more would be too much: "too big an inflow creates inflation."
He then turned back to the problem of South Ossetia. He said that non-recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was not critical for us, and explained the purpose of the whole exercise:
"What is important is that after this, we can work to legitimately strengthen peace there and build our relations with South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states... But in general, water wears down the stone," Vladimir Putin added after a pause. Asked whether Russia might be stripped of the right to host the Olympics in Sochi or the APEC forum in Vladivostok, Vladimir Putin replied in a startlingly casual way:
"If they take it away from us, let them do it themselves. No big deal. I have always said that for us, it is a pretext for developing these regions..."
Having devoted as much effort as he did to secure the award of the 2014 Olympics to Sochi, it was clear that it was not the whole truth. Rather, he felt bitter that it might actually happen.
"I believe that such issues should not be politicised," Mr Putin concluded.
When I belatedly asked him whether the agreement on the European gas price formula meant that the price would be regularly updated," Mr Putin confirmed: "Yes, it will change depending on the price of gasoline and fuel oil. Prices will be formed by the market and not by administrative methods."
Thus, Mr Karimov failed to get the medium-term or the long-term price fixed.
The next several minutes saw Vladimir Putin answering questions about his early months as Prime Minister. He admitted that he found this work very useful.
"You have to go into details that you previously didn't get around to," he explained. "You come to many forks in the road and have to make the right decision, one that will work for decades..."
"So it is good experience that may come in handy in the future?" I asked.
"You think about your own future," Vladimir Putin replied after pausing for a couple of seconds.
"That depends," I said.
"We all depend on each other," Vladimir Putin stated, closed the topic.