Ivan Rodin, Elina Bilevskaya
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin does not seem to think it is necessary to react to the harsh statements of Western politicians who call on Russia to respect the territorial integrity of Georgia. They even hint to bad consequences in the case of continued intractability. The Russian President, however, thinks the opposite, and has spoken much on the subject. Experts' explanations of the Prime Minister's behaviour have been quite varied.
It is interesting that not Prime Minister Vladimir Putin but Dmitry Peskov, his Press Secretary, commented on the negative reaction of Western countries to Moscow's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence. In an interview with the Interfax news agency Wednesday evening, he echoed a line from an old song: "We are peaceful people, but our armoured train has gotten sidetracked." At one point, the Press Secretary declared that Russia is in no way interested in confrontation with the West. At the same time, however, Peskov warned that cooperation is a mutually beneficial thing and reminded that the Russian Army and Navy were guaranteeing peace and stability in the Caucasus.
"There are some who think that Russia should be almost sanctioned," reminded Dmitry Peskov, alluding to some Western politicians' statements about wanting to punish our country. "Russia is the last country on earth that would want such a confrontation," Mr Putin's Press Secretary said, and explained, "Russia, where Strategy 2020 has been worked out and implemented, is a country concentrated on developing its own economy and making that economy innovative and dynamic." He then added a peaceful message: "A country aimed at raising its population's life quality is interested in continuing cooperation with its Western partners in every dimension.
But he soon countered with a careful warning: The Russia Federation has a powerful economy, and "that is why other countries are interested in cooperation with Russia to the same degree that Russia is interested in cooperation with them." The Press Secretary allowed himself to speak more openly, saying that "any hasty decisions that halt cooperation in any dimension would affect the interests of the countries that make such decisions." Mr Peskov found it necessary to discuss the activity of NATO's ships in the Black Sea. He said to NATO, "The activity of such an organisation, which positions itself as the main force of democracy and peacekeeping, is difficult to understand, given a situation when the world community should invigorate activities to ease tensions, restore and strengthen confidence, and guarantee the non-use of force, particularly on the part of those who have once used it." To this end, Mr Peskov stated with regret, "the only restrictive element with respect to the ‘hot heads' in Tbilisi are Russian peacekeepers and the Russian Navy."
Experts questioned by NG were divided in their opinions on which considerations were guiding Mr Putin who, after Russia's recognition of the two Caucasian states' independence and a barrage of criticism from the West, deliberately stepped aside giving way to Dmitry Medvedev.
According to Stanislav Belkovsky, President of the Institute of National Strategy, Putin stepped back because the main figure in the whole situation is Medvedev. "He is in charge of the decisions concerning South Ossetia and Abkhazia. There is a legend that Putin is behind that all, but in reality this is not so. He had eight years to accept self-declared republics but he did not do it," the expert said. In his opinion, situations such as the acceptance of South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence allowed Medvedev to gain a foothold as President in interior affairs as well. "His positions will gain momentum and Putin will remain in a shadow," Belkovsky said.
Georgy Satarov, President of the Indem Foundation, gave an opposite explanation for Putin keeping himself aloof: "As President, Medvedev let the troops enter the zone of the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict without the Federation Council's sanction - a gross violation of the Constitution. Thus, I can imagine such a scenario: Putin allows Medvedev to make a lot of mistakes, then calls for an impeachment and organises new presidential elections, which for him will not cost a thing. If Putin were a real friend, he would not leave Medvedev all alone in this situation."
However, Dmitry Orlov, Director General of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, does not see any disruption in the tandem. "According to the Constitution, the President defines external policy, while traditionally the Prime Minister takes part in the elaboration of a course. One must keep in mind that there is a Constitution, there are certain norms and institutions which work out this course to ensure that the tandem and relations between the President and the Prime Minister do not suffer. This is merely a corollary of understanding constitutional opportunities and responsibilities," he said.