Sergei Vladimirov
When Vladimir Putin assured the nation that he would not run for a third presidential term and would not amend the Constitution to suit himself, many had a sneaking mistrust. During his eight years of leading Russia, he has acquired vast political experience, which the country needs now more than ever. As a result, one theory that circulated within the analytical community was that the Russian President must not leave politics and might even become the head of the Russia-Belarus Union State. After a change of power did take place at the Kremlin, however, some claimed that the "Putin era" was over and that he would gradually ease out of politics.
Parting with the "legacy"
One thing is certain: it is still too early to write a history of Putin's presidency. He himself, addressing a press conference towards the end of his term, described that period as one when he was a "galley slave". Indeed, it was a great challenge to rescue the country from the state it was in during the "stormy 1990s". Putin's presidency was preceded by a period when fortunes were made overnight through primitive commodities trading, cutting up of the budget pie, rampant crime, speculation involving mutual offsets, private financial pyramids and many other cynical and blatant machinations. The "liberals" argued that it was inevitable in the period of "primary accumulation of capital". However, it soon became clear that a lot of money in private hands did not automatically create capitalism and a market economy.
Be that as it may, a so-called "oligarchic capitalism" was born in Russia. Its proponents tried to perpetuate the country's role as a raw materials appendage, while storing all profits earned in Russia from the sale of commodities in Western banks. The main danger, however, lay elsewhere: Russia came within an inch of losing its national statehood, a situation further compounded by a military conflict in Chechnya, in the North Caucasus. Such was the state of the Russia that Vladimir Putin inherited. To extricate the country from this quagmire, a huge and concerted government effort had to be mounted, in many areas, an effort practically beyond the powers of a single person. The main challenge was to strengthen the country's position in the world at all costs.
In connection with this, some interesting statistics may be cited. During his presidency Vladimir Putin had an average 145 meetings with foreign representatives every year. The archive of the official Kremlin site contains 1,409 presidential speeches given during the course of various foreign meetings.
In addition to in-person meetings, the Russian head of state had frequent telephone conversations with foreign leaders: he had on average more than 100 such talks with his foreign counterparts. Among major international events, Putin attended the CIS summits the highest number of times. There were 64 such meetings in various formats: the President attended 17 Russia-EU summits, seven summits with the APEC leaders and three UN General Assemblies; took part in eight G8 summits and SCO summits; and finally, his last major international event was his speech at the Russia-NATO Council summit in Bucharest on April 4, 2008.
During 2000-2008 Putin made 192 foreign trips of various levels - working, official, state - visiting 74 countries, and 187 points on the world map: cities, communities, and geographical areas. The largest number of visits were to Ukraine (23), Kazakhstan (14) and Germany (13). Putin visited Belarus 10 times, China 7 times and the US 6 times. At the same time, he was engaged in other work.
Vladimir Putin managed to lay foundation for a new political system geared towards modernisation, says Alla Yaroshinskaya, a noteworthy political scientist. His efforts went a long way in improving the country's international image. While under the first Russian President, Boris Yeltsin, Russia was seen as a weak and ill-governed state in transition, and its leaders were constantly seeking Western loans, Ms Yaroshinskaya stresses, under Vladimir Putin, Russia reasserted itself as an equal player on the international stage.
"In the early 1990s the US could take from Russia anything it wanted," says Andrew Cutchins, a prominent American political scientist and former director of the Moscow Carnegie Centre. "But then Russia began to recover economically and to fight for a worthy place in the world."
As of mid-March 2008, according to the Levada Centre, Russians named the strengthening of the country's international standing as an unquestionable success of Vladimir Putin's presidency. Putin's success in boosting living standards, wages, and pensions is widely recognised. He is also credited with speeding the country's economic development: a sustained 7-8% annual growth of GDP.
Vladimir Putin himself spelled out the results of his eight-year presidency in the report "Strategic Development of Russia through 2020," delivered to an enlarged meeting of the State Council. He described that period thus: "Eight years ago the situation was dire. Terrorists were waging a veritable civil war. Bandits had invaded Dagestan and blown up houses in Russian cities. [...] In Chechnya, the authorities unleashed terror against their own people." Russia, according to Putin, "was a patchwork territory, with most regions having their own laws that ran counter to the Russian Constitution," concluding, "If we allow ourselves to be dragged into this tug-of-war again, it will be interminable and will destroy our country."
He mentioned that pensions had risen, poverty had been reduced, investments had grown, a clear delimitation of powers between the centre and the regions had been effected and the state had again turned its attention to the problems of national culture.
To be sure, the consequences of the 1990s could not be overcome completely. How to get rid of the "birthmarks" of oligarch capitalism? President Medvedev will have to grapple with that task on a full scale. Still, Putin's status as the nation's leader towards the end of his second term is indisputable.
The leader's new face
When Dmitry Medvedev asked Vladimir Putin to be the head of Government he noted that "it is not enough to elect a new president, it is equally important to preserve an effective team." Obviously, this spelled a bigger role for the Government. Part of the reason for this is that when, after the parliamentary and presidential elections, Vladimir Putin decided to be the head of the United Russia party, it was arguably the first time in the post-Soviet and post-Communist period that the Government was effectively formed by the party that had won the elections.
Vladimir Putin and President Medvedev recently marked the first 100 days of their terms in their respective new posts. Unfortunately, these first days have been marred by the crisis over South Ossetia. Most analysts believe that faced with this situation, the Medvedev-Putin tandem rose to the occasion: the two leaders worked as an effective team. Still, it was a "force majeure" situation.
It is nonetheless clear that, even in routine work, the role of the Prime Minister is acquiring new features. What really stands out is that Vladimir Putin is doing all he can not to overload President Medvedev with "chores", leaving him time and political room to study and make decisions on a global national scale. The work of the Government is increasingly coordinated and purposeful.
Vladimir Putin has created a Government Presidium, which can make decisions more quickly. The Presidium includes the "security ministers" and the Foreign Minister, who now report not only to the President, as before, but also to the Prime Minister. One cannot rule out that over time, the Government structure itself will change with an eye to further delimitation of the powers of the President and the Government. Fighting corruption and reform of the judiciary is the President's prerogative, while the Prime Minister attends to the economy. True, foreign policy is an area where both combine their efforts, especially in light of the recent events.
In regards to the Government's programme as a whole, Vladimir Putin unveiled it in "Strategy 2020," which sets a number of ambitious goals for the country. At the top of the agenda is the creation of an innovation-driven economy: funding of federally targeted programmes and the development of nanotechnologies has been increased, the social and economic face of the country has changed and the living standards of most Russians have risen significantly. At the same time, the tasks of strengthening the country's defence capability and armed forces, and enhancing Russia's international authority are also being tackled.
In short, Vladimir Putin is actively pursuing the course that he has charted and that he pursued as the country's President. The continuity of policy and the consistency of Vladimir Putin's actions as the head of Government remain a guarantee of success, which is the main feature of the present historical period.