Izvestia: “Belarus bows to “His Excellency Mr Putin”
The prime minister of Belarus, Mikhail Myasnikovich requested that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin increase pipeline oil deliveries. According to "Izvestia" sources, Russia's Customs Union neighbors are afraid that Transneft will not be able to pump the volume of oil as required by the agreement due to the January's delays.
Belarus and Russia only agreed to this year's oil volume in January. Belarusian refineries are supposed to receive 21.68 million tonnes of Russian oil this year. However, according to the supply schedule prepared by Russia's Ministry of Energy, only 14 million tonnes will be sent through the pipeline during the first three quarters. So, a higher volume of oil will have to be transferred during the fourth quarter. Belarus is very concerned about this estimate. Oil is currently being supplied to Belarus partially by rail. Though, the idea of transporting oil by rail is not Belarus' first choice. According to "Izvestia" sources, Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich requested "His Excellency Mr Prime Minister Vladimir Putin" (the official form of address in international state letters) to deliver the total volume of oil through the pipeline system. Russian Railways representatives refused to comment on the volume of oil they transport to Belarus. Nevertheless, if 18 million tonnes of oil is to be delivered according to the Transneft agreement, that leaves 3.68 million tonnes of oil to be sent by rail annually.
Officials in Minsk are most concerned about the high volume of remaining oil to be delivered with only five months left. Myasnikovich requested that Putin increase the volume of deliveries and reassured him that Belarusian refineries have the capacity to process all of the 21.68 million tonnes of crude oil. In spite of the reassurances, doubts have been expressed regarding the ability of Belarusian refineries to process the entire volume plus more than 4 million tonnes purchased from Venezuela.
Belarus has nothing to worry about, Igor Dyomin, a Transneft spokesperson said. "We will deliver the contracted volume – 9 million tonnes to every refinery," he said. The truth is that while both governments were trying to agree on duties and supplies, distribution was suspended. Oil started flowing through the pipes again only at the end of January or early February. Transneft will still manage to deliver the agreed upon volume one way or the other, said Dyomin.
The 21.68-million-tonne volume mentioned in the agreement is the maximum volume required, Deputy Director of Minenergo Oil Refining and Transportation, Alexei Sazanov, said. According to the document, additional volume can be pumped only if there is sufficient capacity. Theoretically, the volume could be less and is based on the capacity of Transneft's system. "This volume is not obligatory, but rather is referred to as 'specifying the capacities," insists Sazanov. Minenergo does not yet have any information on pumping volumes for the fourth quarter.
The analysts contacted by "Izvestia" have no doubt about Transneft's ability to fulfill the agreement's terms. They are surprised; there should be no doubt about oil supplies. But this insecurity regarding Russia's abilities is an alarming sign. "In the near future, Belarus will probably make other political decisions and statements concerning oil transit or oil transit duties, for example," said one analyst.
The considerable decline in Belarusian status as a transit country might become the latest reason for this new twist in complications in the relations with its neighbour. The Baltic Pipeline System, BTS-2, to be launched in a month will allow the distribution of oil to Europe while bypassing Belarus. Pipeline water testing is about finished and oil testing will start within days, a Transneft representative told "Izvestia." "Probably we will fill the pipe with oil within a month," clarified a Transneft representative. "We are ready to turn the key on the new BTS-2 pipeline." So, Russia's dependence on the "Druzhba" (or "Friendship") pipeline that distributes oil to Europe via Belarus will be reduced considerably within a month. Representatives at Minenergo and Belarusian Prime Minister Myasnikovich's press service refused to comment.
Maria Zhebit
