After two stages of the Nord Stream pipeline have been launched, construction work could be continued. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin mentioned this possibility during a meeting with Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Combine (MMC) workers on Friday. Experts are sure that now there are no economic prerequisites for extending the pipeline.
"Soon we will start building a second line parallel to the gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, called Nord Stream," Putin said at the meeting. "Next on the agenda are the South Stream and perhaps another stage of Nord Stream."
Official spokesman for Gazprom Sergei Kupriyanov confirmed to RBC Daily that such an opportunity exists, but it is too early to provide more information.
Putin's press secretary noted that the third stage may be built if the first two are fully loaded. He specified that in this case the third leg will stretch to Europe, but could not be more specific. Nord Stream AG declined to comment.
Vice President of the Russian Gas Society Oleg Zhilin believes that it would be logical to predict the gas market's further expansion in Germany, especially now that Wingaz and E.ON have become markedly more active there.
"This shows that Germany wants to speed up the withdrawal of nuclear power stations," he said. Moreover, Nord Stream's extension will rule out political risks because there will be no need for transit via other states.
Zhilin believes that the gas demand will continue to grow. There is a constant energy shortage in Poland, Austria and other Western European countries. Moreover, the North Sea shelf's reserves are depleting, and before long Britain is likely to require large supplies of Russian gas.
The construction of Nord Stream's first leg was completed underwater in June. The second leg's pipes were laid this month. The first will be put into operation in autumn and the second in a year. The project budget amounts to $7.4 billion euro.
Nord Stream is designed to supply gas to Germany, Britain, the Netherlands, France and Denmark. The aggregate transport capacity of these two legs will amount to 66 billion cubic metres of gas per year.
Viktor Markov, a senior analyst at the Zurich Capital Management Investment Company, thinks that the figure may eventually grow to 82.5 billion cubic metres.
Mikhail Korchyomkin, an Eastern European Gas Analysis expert, maintains that economically the project's expansion makes no sense. After the commissioning of Nord Stream's two legs, Russia's gas export capacity will reach about 225 billion cubic metres per year. The third leg's commissioning would bring Gazprom's aggregate export capacity in Europe to about 283 billion square metres (counting South Stream, it will be up to 345 billion cubic metres). Meanwhile, Gazprom exported less than 140 billion cubic metres last year.
Nord Stream's construction aims to diversify Russian gas exports, while bypassing Ukraine and Belarus. Therefore, Putin may have mentioned the third leg to exert psychological pressure on the partners since Ukraine has long been trying to negotiate lower gas prices for itself.
Margarita Bulavkina