The Russian people know little about Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's new political initiative.
Most Russians don't know the Popular Front has been established around the United Russia party and Putin, according to the weekend opinion polls of top national sociological agencies.
Sociologists are in no mood to predict whether the front will become more popular in the run-up to the elections. They think the front still has 50-50 chances.
On May 17, a spokesperson for the resurgent Congress of Russian Communities, a nationalist political organisation involving Dmitry Rogozin, a well-known Russian diplomat and popular politician, said the congress will cooperate with the Popular Front. The congress' leaders subsequently refuted the statement, but said cooperation was possible.
Sociologists from the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM) asked respondents whether they had heard about Putin's initiative. They reported that 61% of the respondents heard about the front for the first time from the interviewers. Another 29% said they had heard something about the initiative. And only 9% said they had a clear idea of the issue. The survey implies a 3.4% statistical error margin. One % said they were not sure whether they've heard or not. "It appears the May holiday season overshadowed the Popular Front," VTsIOM General Director Valery Fyodorov said.
Due to such insufficient information levels, the centre has so far decided not to find out what the public thinks about Putin's initiative.
Nonetheless, sociologists from the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) decided to poll Russians about the new pre-election initiative.
The same 9% of respondents knew about the front, another 22% had heard something about it, and 66% heard about the front for the first time from the interviewers. The rest said they didn't know anything about it. Thus, most respondents were unable to assess Putin's initiative at all. A total of 56% of the respondents didn't know whether to approve or disapprove of the idea. At the same time, 21% disapproved of the front, and another 23% approved of the initiative.
Sociologists found it vital to assess society's initial opinion upon this long-term initiative's inception, Yekaterina Sedykh, the director of FOM's Dominant Ideas programme, said. At first glance, the idea has decent, 50-50 chances of success, she said, judging from the number of people who know about the front.
However, most respondents were unable to explain convincingly why they liked or disliked the front.
Most of the respondents who liked Putin's initiative said it would improve the general situation and yield positive results. Such respondents accounted for just 5% of those polled. It turns out that one in every 20 respondents liked the idea.
Another 4% said the front is important because unification is essential. On the backdrop of the 3.4% statistical error margin, 1% approved of the front because they said the country needs one party. At the same time, the people didn't care much about the front's goals, as mentioned by Putin and United Russia. Only 1% of the respondents (with 3.4% statistical error margin) liked the front because they said it would heed the people's opinions and interests. They added that it would facilitate pluralism and more actively involve the people in the country's life.
In reality, this "statistical" approval shows the high level of trust in Putin's initiatives, Sedykh said. Consequently, the respondents who disapproved of the front had better motivated opinion.
The majority, or 8%, disapproved of the front as a pointless concept that would not produce positive results. Another 3% said the front would mean additional expenses. An additional 3% opposed such fronts, as the country needs a multi-partisan system and an opposition to United Russia. The number of respondents who disliked the front, which is allegedly a United Russia pre-election ploy, and any organisation similar to United Russia, is 2% and 2%, respectively.
Sociologists are in no position to predict the Popular Front's ratings in the run-up to the December State Duma elections because the public still does not associate the front with the elections. Overall, 15% of the respondents thought the word "" implied hostilities and guerrillas. Another 8% associated the word with popular discontent and mass protests. A total of 4% and 3%, respectively, equated the word with negative sentiments, as well as patriotism, crackdowns and a people's militia. Only 1% associated the front with Putin and United Russia.
The public would not be surprised if other parties aside from United Russia join the front. Only 46% of those polled are confident that the front will comprise United Russia alone. Twenty percent believe the Just Russia party may also side with the front. Another 16% think the front may include the Liberal Democratic Party. Fifteen percent believe even the KPRF will be able to join the front. Russians think the Right Cause and Yabloko parties are the most stalwart, with 6% and 4% of the respondents, respectively, saying they may also join.
On May 17, Alexander Bosykh, who was introduced as a member of the Presidium of the Congress of Russian Communities, expressed hope for cooperation with the front. He made the statement at a meeting with United Russia's Molodaya Gvardiya (Young Guard) youth movement.
Bosykh said he had long waited for a platform where it would be possible to work regardless of political sympathies. He wished the utmost success to the front and expressed hope for close cooperation.
Bosykh said the organisation's obvious plus is that it will be able to facilitate negotiations between those involved in inter-ethnic conflicts and promote congressional ideas, including those on nationalities policy.
He added that the front is a promising initiative and said it will enable people and organisations voicing different views to unite and tackle common problems. Bosykh said the congress' leaders had not yet met to discuss the issue.
"We will cooperate in any case," he noted.
The Justice Ministry confirmed the Congress of Russian Communities' registration only in early May. It was established in 1992 by Dmitry Rogozin, who now serves as Russia's ambassador to NATO.
In 2003, the congress joined the Rodina (Fatherland) bloc, which received over 9% of the votes in the December 2003 State Duma elections. In 2006, Rodina and other parties established the Just Russia party, and the congress decided to reinstate itself as a public movement, but was unable to obtain registration.
Speaking about the prospects of the congress joining the front, Molodaya Gvardiya leader Timur Prokopenko said Bosykh spoke on behalf of the organisation, rather than on his own behalf.
Meanwhile, the incumbent congress chairman, Alexei Zhuravlyov, said Bosykh's statement was pure adventurism.
"He decided he had the right to make statements after hearing about the congress' establishment," Zhuravlyov noted.
Andrei Savelyev, a member of the Organising Committee, said Bosykh was acting on his own behalf, and his actions were uncoordinated with the organisation.
"We did not agree on any entry," he stressed.
However, Savelyev did not rule out the possibility of cooperation between the congress and the parties promoting its interests. Zhuravlyov said cooperation would be possible if the Popular Front accepted the congress' principles.
Members of Rogozin's entourage said he is ready to discuss the congress' involvement in the front and other blocs.
As a former congressional leader, Rogozin is confident that his former comrades-in-arms will ask his opinion on the issue. However, he declined to comment on the congress' possible incorporation into the front pending the organisation's official appeal. Zhuravlyov said the issue has not yet been discussed with Rogozin, and no proposals on joining the front have yet been received.
Putin noted the need to involve various political forces in the front on May 6, including nationalist forces, Yevgeny Suchkov, the director of the Institute of Election Technologies, said.
He added that the front would benefit from the electorate that voted for Rodina. Consequently, he said it would be no surprise if the congress, or some members, join the front. Rogozin's invitation would be the best step as the congress' former leader.
However, Suchkov said Rogozin's entry would not be a logical move now, but only in the run-up to the elections so patriotic voters don't lose interest.
Viktor Khamrayev and Maxim Ivanov