Nezavisimaya Gazeta: “No switching sides”
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Contrasts between official reports and the reality of Russia's economic situation were made particularly plain last week. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin reported to the State Duma on the government's performance in 2010 and on its future plans. The prime minister's speech was imbued with a feeling of confidence and optimism. He noted economic growth and rising incomes. He also said that the situation would continue to improve. The prime minister claimed that the government has a clear perception of how to usher in decades of sustained national development without any ill-conceived economic experimentation or flights to extremes as a result of unjustified liberalism or social demagoguery.
But just one look at the real agenda shows that the government is seriously concerned about economic instability. In an effort to rectify the situation to at least some extent, it is ready to repeal and modify its own recent decisions, including higher payroll fund premiums. A year ago, top officials claimed that there could be no talk of reversing a decision to raise such premiums from 26% to 34%. It appears that the 26% levels will now be reinstated. It's a matter of individual taste to refer to such tactics as uncertain "experimentation" or not.
The government's readiness to sacrifice the earnings of state-controlled monopolies in order to revive production is one more indirect evidence of its vacillating economic policy.
"Rising tariffs should not stifle overall nationwide economic activity," Putin said on Thursday. He proposed a scenario under which average tariff hikes will not exceed planned inflation levels, or 5-6%. Such initiatives were considered unthinkable in early 2011. In fact, the government had raised tariffs at Gazprom's request by 15-25% and more in previous years.
"In 2010, the Russian GDP grew by 4%, or more than in any other G8 nation. This year's forecast is about 4.2%," Putin told State Duma deputies on Wednesday. But the latest statistics submitted by the government's Analytical Centre are not so optimistic. Industrial production stopped growing this March, and a decline set in. "The cumulative reduction in the output of mining operations totaled 0.3% in the past two months since the January 2011 peak. Processing industries began to downsize production only in March but by a remarkable 2.1%. The food industry has posted a 1.1% cumulative production recession for the past five months," writes Putin's former economic adviser Andrei Illarionov, citing Analytical Centre data.
"In 2010, real nationwide wages and salaries increased by 4.6%. Real incomes also grew by 4.1%," Putin told the State Duma. But the Federal Statistics Service paints a different picture. Real available incomes fell by 3.4% in March 2011 and by 2.9% in January-March 2011 against the same period in 2010. Real wages and salaries remained virtually the same in the past 12 months, growing by just 0.5% in the first quarter of 2011 against January-March 2010.
Mikhail Sergeyev
