Although the latest opinion polls show that President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin are trusted by fewer respondents than before, analysts are confident that such fluctuations occur seasonally. Moreover, rising confidence in the president and the prime minister will be aided by their active efforts in dealing with the wildfire emergency.
Earlier in the week, several pollsters conducted surveys making it possible to assess the confidence ratings for the president and the prime minister. The All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM or VTsIOM) said 47% of those polled on July 3 approved of Medvedev's work, while Putin's activities were supported by 53%. The breakdown for July 24 was 43% and 51%, respectively. Influential pollster Public Opinion claimed that support for Medvedev had fallen from 62% to 52%, while Putin has maintained the trust of 61% as he had in June. Analysts are confident that a decline in both leaders' popularity ratings is affected by seasonal factors. Izvestia asked the president of Public Opinion, Alexander Oslon, to comment on the issue.
"Even young students know that ratings frequently fluctuate. It is also common knowledge that they are influenced by a great number of factors. Therefore, there is nothing sensational about this kind of statistical data," Oslon said.
"It would be incorrect to say that they were influenced by the heat wave and the wildfires. The heat wave has been going on for the last month and a half. In reality, ratings fluctuate when the situation is very serious. I would like to remind you that the crisis had caused an upsurge in ratings," Oslon said.
"Why did this happen? People had no hope that anyone outside of the government would deal with the crisis. This factor became irrelevant after the crisis ended. Of course, people are affected by an unpleasant situation. And one can suppose that there are people who accuse Putin and Medvedev of being responsible for the protracted heat wave. But it would be strange to expect that there are so many of them as to be reflected by statistical surveys," Oslon noted.
"Such fluctuations are seasonal," said Dmitry Orlov, general director at the Agency of Political and Economic Communications.
"Summertime confidence in politicians and political parties traditionally diminishes for a variety of reasons. People generally become less interested in politics. Politically active individuals, primarily, urban dwellers, leave cities and cannot be polled by sociologists. At any rate, such fluctuations will not cause any major changes in the system of support for the policies of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin," Orlov said.
Yury Politov