Officials in Tbilisi believe that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's words are a signal to Washington.
Officials in Tbilisi perceived the proposal Putin made on Monday to Georgian authorities not to seek the assistance of a third party in its settlement with South Ossetia as a signal to Washington. In the opinion of Georgian experts, the gist of the proposal was to show who needs "to come to terms" with whom on what US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called "the occupied Georgian territories."
Levan Berdzenishvili, one of the leaders of the Georgian Republican Party, told NG that in reply to questions about Ms Clinton's visit to Tbilisi on Monday, Putin made a virtually presidential statement. "This was his reaction to Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Washington and how he was received there. Putin addressed the Georgian leaders, as it were, but his speech was meant to be heard in Washington. He made it clear that he is the one in Moscow with whom Georgia must come to terms when it comes to South Ossetia," Berdzenishvili explained. He expressed doubt in the possibility of establishing dialogue between Tbilisi and Tskhinval without the assistance of a third party, as Putin urged. "The proposal as such (Putin's proposal – NG) is good, but it cannot be executed. Kokoity (the president of South Ossetia – NG) rushes to consult Putin in Moscow every time something happens. And how can we reach agreement with a territory on which Russian troops are deployed?" Berdzenishvili asked.
Former Georgian Ambassador to the Russian Federation Zurab Abashidze told NG: "The dialogue with South Ossetia, as well as with Abkhazia, for that matter, failed in the past and will fail now, too." He went on to say: "We were told before 2008 to come to terms with the Abkhazians and Ossetians, but even then we had the impression that Moscow had not been very supportive of this dialogue. The idea of negotiations existed, but everything ground to a halt when it came to compromise. The situation drastically changed after 2008. However, there is the Geneva negotiation process, and it would be possible to work within its framework, if there is political will." Abashidze also believes that "Putin's reserved and calm reaction to Ms Clinton's statement about the US intention to work for the return of the occupied territories to Georgia is primarily a message to Washington."
When asked by Georgian journalists to comment on Ms Clinton's statement about Washington's position, Putin urged Tbilisi to try to resolve its issues with Abkhazia and South Ossetia without the help of third parties. "There is no need to seek a solution on the side. It is necessary to conduct dialogue without reference to third parties," he said. Interfax quoted Putin as saying that he "is not going to dodge a reply to the question" and that "some people think that it [the territory] is occupied, whereas others believe that it has been freed. This is a subject for dialogue between the people of Georgia and South Ossetia. It is essential to conduct this dialogue without third parties. We did not start this war. Responsibility should rest with those who did."
Putin urged the Georgian authorities to take courage and find a way back into the hearts of people whom they wounded. "It is necessary to come to terms," he said and emphasised that "there are many forces in Georgia that would like to have better relations with both Russia and the South Ossetian people." "Just like other members of the international community, Russia can only act as a guarantor here," he said, adding that "these problems should not be resolved on the side. America is America, Georgia is Georgia, Russia is Russia and Ossetia is Ossetia. There is no need to refer to anyone and there is no other road."
This was Putin's response to Ms Clinton's statement in Tbilisi on the US determination to deny recognition of the occupied Georgian territories. "The United States is steadfast in its commitment to Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity," she said.
Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Giga Bokeria told the Rustavi 2 television network: "Hillary Clinton's visit has neutralised fears in society that the resetting of Russian-American relations could harm Georgia. However, when Georgia's de-occupation became the number one issue, these fears dissipated. We are not naïve and we don't expect everything to be resolved all at once. Russia will have to retreat step by step."
"How did Mr Putin suggest that Tbilisi and Tskhinval come to terms? He might have had in mind a humanitarian mission. There will be no drastic changes, and the territories will not be returned," Alexei Malashenko, an expert at the Moscow Carnegie Center, said. He told NG that "Putin had to reply to Ms Clinton, which he did, and Ms Clinton had to make this statement in Tbilisi, which she did." Malashenko believes that nothing special has happened and that Putin's calm and well-balanced tone only bears out the point.
Alexander Rahr, an expert from the German Council on Foreign Relations, also emphasised the reserved response of the prime minister, but drew equal attention to its political orientation: "Such statements are usually made by presidents rather than prime ministers, but Russia is ruled by a tandem. Is it good or bad? I don't now. That is the way things are. Maybe Putin has Medvedev's permission to make political statements."
Unlike other experts, Rahr thinks that changes in South Ossetia's status are not impossible. He claimed that Abkhazia has been increasingly consolidating its independence and will soon be "recognised and supported by other countries, as it is already by Turkey." "Abkhazia may develop its trade and business; it has access to the sea and is developing its own statehood," the expert explained to NG. "The status of South Ossetia may change largely due to its geographical location – it is separated from Russia by mountains and has many Georgian villages," the expert said. "South Ossetia has already become a headache for Russia, which has to spend a lot of money on a corrupt republic that won't survive on its own. Therefore, in the future, it may either incorporate itself into Russia by uniting with North Ossetia or return to Georgia on federative principles," the expert said, adding that this forecast is not yet in store for today.
Svetlana Gamova
