Experts discuss the year 2012
At a round table in Moscow yesterday, experts spent a long time debating who likes United Russia (UR) more - President Dmitry Medvedev or Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
What began as a discussion of the future of the UR party gradually turned into a discussion of possible outcomes of two federal elections - the 2011 Duma elections in 2011 and the 2012 presidential election.
Dmitry Orlov, general director of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, had this to say on the matter: "If Medvedev runs for president, he will be nominated by UR. Any kind of nominating coalition will be purely symbolic. There can be no alternative coalition for Medvedev's nomination. This became clear after his meeting with UR members last week. Medvedev struck a political alliance with Putin's UR."
Alexei Zudin, deputy director of the Centre for Political Analysis, believes that "Medvedev and Putin are related figures and what we're dealing with here are different stages of the same project." He thinks that during Putin's presidency this government institution became too strong and that "this situation can only be temporary." This is why Medvedev "simply cannot afford to rely on one party alone. Therefore, the role of small parties will grow."
"The CPSU died of isolation. UR needs rivals to keep it from becoming isolated and from the delusion that it can solve all problems over the telephone. In this respect, small parties are good for the health of the system," Zudin observed.
At this point, the political scientists began arguing about the future of UR. Ultimately they agreed that it is now a "hegemon" and it must become the "dominant party." Independent political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin thinks that although Medvedev suits the elites better, "Putin remains a symbol of stability and has a better chance in 2012 for this reason." He added that "Medvedev is gradually realising this."
Mikhail Remizov, president of the National Strategy Institute, reminded his colleagues about another electoral asset: "Medvedev is quite effective in channelling the energy of those who are displeased with the current state of affairs."
"Indeed, the Communist Party and the Socialist Revolutionaries are placing their bets on Medvedev. The former has developed the idea of socialist modernisation and the latter the Onward Russia movement, but they've clearly lost the game now that Medvedev has met with UR members," Orlov said.
"Fortunately, our political culture is gradually moving beyond a win-at-any-cost mentality. I think that Putin and Medvedev will take similar approaches in their electoral strategies and will act as a team," Remizov said. As for UR's role in the presidential election, Oreshkin thinks that "even tacit competition between Putin and Medvedev will immediately split the party."
Anna Zakatnova