United Russia is girding itself for the presidential election. The working scenario is a victory for Putin.
The leader of United Russia, Vladimir Putin, attended the Party's conference in Novosibirsk in April. The Vesti 24 channel had decided to broadcast it live assuming that it would not last more than two hours. The meeting dragged on, and Vesti continued the broadcast. At one point a Siberian plant breeder launched into a long and rather confusing speech asking the party's leader to support the producers of flax. Putin tried to get the hang of the matter earnestly but without much success. Dmitry Medvedev unwittingly came to the rescue: the TV channel switched to a "breaking news" item reporting from Portovaya Harbour where Dmitry Medvedev was launching Nord Stream. In the meantime Putin was rescued from the agrarian's grip.
The presidential elections are still a long way away. The consensus is that there are just two options: either Medvedev as President and Putin as Prime Minister, or vice versa. But the presidential elections will be preceded by Duma elections. The two elections will be interconnected, experts are convinced, so much so that it will be effectively the same campaign. For United Russia preparation for the elections is a technological process with its own logic and schedule. Last Friday the president met with party activists for an informal conversation. No such meetings have been held before. But judging from how the party proceeds today, it expects Putin to be back in the Kremlin.
Staking on Putin
The promotional pamphlet released after the Novosibirsk conference (the key party event last spring) leaves no doubt as to whom the party is grooming for presidency. The 60-page pamphlet contains 20 pictures of Putin and none of Medvedev. A high-ranking United Russia functionary sees no problem there. Putin is the party's leader and we have no other option in preparing for the autumn (regional) elections and the elections for the Duma.
The schedule of the so-called interregional party conferences, patterned on the one held in Novosibirsk, covers the period exactly until 2012. This year will see two more conferences, in the Far East in the summer and in the Caucasus in the autumn. There will be four conferences in 2011 and one in early 2012. It is very likely to strike the final chord in the presidential campaign.
The name of the pesidential candidate will most likely be announced at the party congress in December 2011. No matter what agreement Putin and Medvedev will come to between them, they will try to maintain suspense until the last minute so that people do not lose interest in the presidential election. There is no doubt that Putin will head up the party list in the Duma elections.
Nobody has given United Russia the go-ahead to launch the election campaign, but then it doesn't need it, says an official at the Kremlin's interior policy directorate. The Kremlin, he said, is helping the party by offering advice, but is giving it much greater leeway than before. The party is gathering momentum. "Previously there were problems with (party) promotionals (for national TV news)," another Kremlin staffer explains. "Now, as during election times, the party provides several excellent regional press releases a week."
Czar-plumber
The stories too have changed. Last year the pictures showed mainly the Duma and its deputies. Now the benchmarks have changed, a United Russia functionary enthuses, there are real people and real problems. There is almost a total ban on showing governors and bureaucrats, but Putin's public reception offices across the country provide regular party press releases. Party members help people with their housing problems, deliver the remains of an old man who died in the war in Europe to his grave, write to the governor about attempts to take possession of community garden plots.
The signs are that this approach has Putin's blessing. That is the way he sees his image: czar-plumber, as a party official puts it. Last year, says a government official, Putin made his chief of Staff, Sergey Sobyanin, responsible for party work. Sobyanin has met regularly with the party's leaders, preparing the prime minister's meetings with United Russia and to all intents and purposes controls the party inasmuch as its agenda overlaps with that of the government. Once a month Sobyanin receives the man in charge of Putin's public reception offices, Deputy Mikhail Babich, who reports on how the party has helped, when and where.
The party, too, needs such statistics. "We accumulate all these data and use them on television and in elections," a high-ranking party official said. However, friction occasionally arises between Sobyanin and party leadership. For example, in February Sobyanin almost chased out of his office the head of the party's executive, Andrei Vorobyov, for botching the preparation of a meeting, a government official says.
"Party functionaries lack bureaucratic skills, a member of the government staff explains. We have to make up for their failures." For the conference in Novosibirsk to be a success, the Ministry of Regional Development had to urgently finalise the Development Strategy for Siberia through 2020 and submit it to the government, says a member of the ministry's staff. One of Sobyanin's subordinates is sure that Sobyanin will himself take on the task of preparing such conferences in the future: "All that will be left for the Party to do is to deliver the delegates."
Keeping an eye on the party
Thus Sobyanin has already become an informal head of Putin's campaign staff. The prime minister no longer uses the president's staff to work with his party. One of the top members of the president's staff, Vladislav Surkov, who is United Russia's ideological mentor, still chairs meetings on the party's political agenda, but he has long since stopped working directly with Putin, several Kremlin staffers say.
Surkov's brief is to supervise the party generally, this is the president's assignment, one Kremlin official explains. He cites an example. The president suggested that small parties should appear on TV more frequently. Surkov issued an order and, after a long absence, the Yabloko party was given air time on television.
Newsweek's sources at the Kremlin say that Vladislav Surkov is quite happy with the current state of affairs and would like it to continue beyond 2012 and to have Medvedev to continue working at the Kremlin. Early in the year, Newsweek has learned, he regained the authority to make suggestions for the presidential schedule. Last Friday, at Medvedev's request, he organised his meeting with the party. It was attended by 140 deputies, senators and rank-and-file party members from the regions, and was broadcast live on the party website.
"Business supports you and in some ways turns us into like-thinking people," meatpacker Vadim Dymov, the Party's rising star, was saying eagerly. From Newsweek's information he may soon become the United Russia liaison officer with the business community. Medvedev thanked those present for their support and spent half an hour urging them to pay more attention to modernising the country. "Oil at $140 per barrel spells disaster for Russia," the president said. Dmitry Medvedev even hinted at a similarity between United Russia and the CPSU: "You shouldn't work like your legal predecessors in the party line."
A draw on points
Sociology is a handy tool in the work of party functionaries. One sociologist cited this example: in 2002, after the terrorist attack on Dubrovka, Putin made his decisions proceeding from the results of opinion polls which showed that his popularity was falling, although the figures could be interpreted in various ways.
Pollsters note that in the last two years public opinion has largely approved of the performance of the tandem. At any rate, it does not see an alternative to Putin and Medvedev. The party is used to seeing Putin's rating higher, so he should lead the party in the elections. Indeed, all the polls show Putin slightly ahead. "There is a small gap that does not go away," says the head of Levada Centre, Lev Gudkov. Medvedev is still not perceived as an independent figure." The Public Opinion Fund reports a similar picture: Medvedev's approval rating is 60% and Putin's 67%.
But the opinion polls, including those of Levada Centre, show that Medvedev's approval rating is growing: during the past two years the number of respondents who think Medvedev pursues an independent policy has doubled. But the share of those who think they rule together is the same as two years ago (allowing for statistical error). No qualitative change has occurred, says Mikhail Vinogradov of Petersburg Politics Fund.
However, classified surveys by the Public Opinion Fund which model the election situation reveal yet a different picture. If Putin and Medvedev were on the same ballot the contest between them would be a draw: 32% for Putin and 31% for Medvedev. As late as January 2009 the figures were very different: 46% for Putin versus 20% for Medvedev.
This means that there is no clear favourite. The Public Opinion Fund does not publish these polls, which are accessible only to several Kremlin directorates and a couple of government departments. They were made available to Newsweek by an official. The Fund's director, Alexander Oslon, refused to comment on these figures. "We do not comment on what we do not publish."
On the one hand, these data may suggest that Medvedev is growing stronger. This is normal: people are getting used to the fact that he is the president and that already gives him extra points. On the other hand, the question is somewhat abstract. In reality people will not be asked to choose between the two rulers. For example, VTsIOM has dropped Putin from these polls and offers as candidates Medvedev, Zyuganov, Zhirinovsky or Shoigu. The head of VTsIOM Valery Fyodorov explains: "To ask respondents who they would vote for, Medvedev or Putin, is like asking a child whom he loves more, mum or dad."
Konstantin Gaaze
