Kommersant: "Polish plane crashed outside Smolensk due to extreme conditions"
The Polish presidential plane crashed outside Smolensk due to the extreme weather conditions. For the time being, this is the only conclusion of aviation experts
Yesterday, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin instructed Tatyana Anodina, the head of the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC), to take charge of the technical
investigation into the cause of the Polish Tu-154's crash near Smolensk.
Earlier, Alexei Morozov, the head of the IAC Commission on Investigating Air Accidents, was in charge of the IAC technical commission, while Putin managed the general direction of the investigation upon President Dmitry Medvedev's instructions. It is still unclear who will pass his duties to Anodina. Meanwhile, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has already suggested the most likely cause of the crash: "It was the wrong decision by the main man."
Based on the IAC's official statement on April 13, Putin instructed Anodina to undertake the "general direction of the technical investigation and the coordination of the efforts of the Russian and foreign organisations concerned."
Earlier, Anodina served as the deputy head of the Government Commission on Investigating the Tu-154 Crash. Immediately after the tragedy, Medvedev ordered Putin to head the commission and coordinate the actions of the "organisations concerned." At the same time, Morozov led the IAC technical commission that included experienced pilots and IAC experts. Managing such commissions is Morozov's responsibility.
It is unclear if Anodina will replace her predecessor or coordinate Putin's and Morozov's actions. The IAC declined to comment on Anodina's new appointment, as it has already published all the information for the media on its official website.
In the meantime, the technical commission's experts are not rushing to conclusions when it comes to the cause of the crash that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski, his wife and other representatives of the Polish political elite.
One member told Kommersant that the commission has established for the time being that the landing conditions were not only complicated, but extreme.
"The likelihood of a catastrophe was very high," he said. "The presidential plane's chief pilot knew this well, but took an unjustified risk against all flying instructions and common sense."
According to experts, the plane landed in a thick fog, which ended only 30 metres above the ground. Direct visibility was 200-400 metres. While landing, a plane covers this distance in seconds. Thus, experts say the presidential pilots were landing blind.
The Tu-154 navigational system could have oriented the pilots in the fog. It is designed to build a landing trajectory – a direct slanting glide path that ends on the landing point on a runway. However, the Tu-154 navigational equipment could only have been used if the Severny military airport had been equipped with the Instrument Landing System – glide-path radio markers, extra light instruments, etc. But the airport has the much more primitive Landing System Equipment (LSE) – its outer and inner radio markers merely inform the pilot about the plane's passage through these points. An air traffic controller continuously informs the pilot about the distance to the markers, and upon receiving this information, the pilot calculates in his head the altitude at which he should be flying. Experts maintain that for landing at LSE-equipped airports, direct visibility should not be lower than 1,800 metres. Hence, the lower cloud level should be over 120 metres from the ground.
The commission said the local air traffic controllers warned the Polish crew that the landing was impossible as the plane approached the airport and offered that they fly to Minsk or Moscow. However, the chief pilot insisted on reaching the point of Aeronautical Decision Making. For a Tu-154 passenger plane, this is a height of 100 metres over the airport. At this point, the pilot must decide whether or not to land. If his plane descends below this point, then he will not be able to regain altitude. Experts say that, having passed this control point, the Polish plane confidently continued its descent in the fog. Experts cannot explain this strange behaviour because the investigation is still continuing.
In the meantime, Lukashenko believes it was Kaczynski, rather than the crew, who decided to land in the bad weather. He explained that when a presidential plane falls behind schedule, its commander must report to the high-ranking passenger.
"The president has the last say," Lukashenko said. "He decides whether to land. In my opinion, the pilots had the right to disobey, but they would not have dared to do so." He added that he and his colleagues will learn a serious lesson from the tragedy.
Sergei Mashkin
