What the new Cabinet of Ministers has and has not done
Today marks the first 100 days of Putin's premiership. It is not a long period by the measure of history or indeed compared with Putin's 8 years as president, but the direction or the "trend," to use the prime minister's favourite word, can already be discerned.
What have Putin's first 100 days as prime minister shown? Below our experts share their opinions.
National leader versus oligarch
Last autumn the United Russia Party declared Putin to be the national leader, but of late it has been soft-pedaling that definition, probably because it would not be very tactful under a sitting president. But United Russia does not intend to change its definition. Political scientist Sergei MARKOV, a United Russia member of the State Duma, told Komsomolskaya Pravda:
"The main result of Putin's 100 days as prime minister is that he has preserved people's trust as the national leader, the country's most popular man to whom people look. He continues to demonstrate his strength, for example, by publicly telling the major mining and steel-making company Mechel not to fiddle with coal prices."
"But one should not forget that it was Prime Minister Putin who decided to cut taxes on the mining of minerals," recalls Vagif GUSEINOV, Director General of the Institute of Strategic Assessments and Analysis. "The money thus released will be used to develop mining companies and explore new fields."
In other words, Putin seems to be punishing brash self-confident oligarchs with one hand and encouraging those who think not only about profits, but also about state interests with the other hand.
"Of course it is extremely important for Putin at least to cut down on tax dodging by big business," thinks Professor Yuri BORYAN, Ph.D. (Economy), author of the book "Russia with Putin after 2008". "Some criticize him for his promise ‘to send the doctors over' [to the head of Mechel, who ‘urgently' fell ill]. But first, Putin is a public politician and people like his vernacular phrases, and second, he sent a strong signal to other companies that the methods of tax evasion they had invented in the 1990s would no longer be tolerated."
However, Putin's intentions over the Mechel case are obvious, in fact he declared them himself: transparency in the work of Russian companies, including in Western markets. The government's task is to create a level and understandable playing field for all of them. This led to instructions being issued to Minister Kudrin to prepare a package of documents on this theme and submit it to the State Duma by September.
Putin versus inflation
Slowing down rising prices is the priority task Putin sets his government. Our source in the government believes that every meeting of the Government Presidium tries to find a balance between price growth and addressing social issues. At a recent meeting of the Presidium Putin gave a thumbnail sketch, even though the example he chose was the much-maligned Mechel, of how food prices are jacked up using the same scheme. And he ordered his First Deputy, Shuvalov, to bring producers and traders to the negotiating table to teach them to cooperate in a civilized way and not to hike food price through speculation.
Stanislav RADKEVICH, political scientist and director of the PR-3000 Agency, reports that all the surveys show that the number of people who consider themselves poor has stopped growing; but unless inflation is curbed that number will grow.
"You cannot conquer inflation in 100 days," analyst Vagif GUSEINOV told KP. "Inflation is a many-sided process connected not only with the status of the Russian economy, but with the situation in the world economy and in the Western markets. It is important that the government is constantly trying to find a way out of the situation and does not give up the fight against inflation."
"Inflation will go into double digits because food prices have grown all over the world, but it will not exceed the psychological tipping point for Russian people," according to Vice President of the Political Technologies Center Foundation, Alexei MAKARKIN. "There will be no repeat of the catastrophic inflation of the 1990s."
How to spend the petrodollars?
Analysts readily discuss inflation, windfall petrodollars and the dogged determination of Finance Minister Kudrin, member of the Government Presidium and vice premier, to invest it in Western securities.
"It is not quite clear what makes Kudrin claim that petrodollars cannot be invested in some sectors of our economy because it may trigger a surge in inflation," says political scientist GUSEINOV. "At the same time he thinks it is reasonable to invest them in Western securities and watch their prices fall and lose billions".
And the expert goes on to conclude:
"Either we have some obligations to the West or this is our way of helping the world to solve its financial crisis. What beats me is why it should be done at the expense of Russians. I think Kudrin exposes the Government to the risk of being criticized by the State Duma and by erstwhile critics from the opposition".
Still on the topic of petrodollars, Economics Professor BORYAN notes that oil prices have dropped from $143 dollars per barrel to $120. In the expert's opinion that trend may continue because America may be speculating in oil: American shareholders are involved in the Saudi oil industry.
"But what is important for us," Professor BORYAN continues, "assessing the Cabinet's record over the last three months, is whether we will be able to pay our way if oil prices go down? We still import food, clothing and footwear and, most importantly, machines and equipment for our factories. If money runs out we will have no wherewithal to buy equipment for production and we cannot yet produce our own machines. The prime minister declares that the Government is following a socially-oriented policy. However, even though taxes are cut and wages and pensions are growing, social expenditure is still not large enough compared with spending on other spheres of life. But we see the prime minister giving instructions to the Government to prepare amendments to the budget, validating additional, mainly social spending."
To get the Army up on its feet
Experts note that Putin visits factories several times a month to get a hands-on feel of how they work and how the economy is doing. By visiting reasonably organised enterprises - be it a farm or a defence plant (he visited dozens of enterprises within three months) - he seeks to demonstrate how important it is to create modern and successful production facilities. "Previously there were puddles on the factory floor and workers were laid off," he told the Government Presidium recently after a trip to a "resurgent" factory that produces unique anti-aircraft weapons.
"It is right that the premier pays so much attention to the defense industry and the modernisation of the Army and allocates generously to meet their needs," according to political scientist GUSEINOV. "Developments in South Ossetia have shown how much we need a mobile, modern Army and weaponry to defend our citizens and our national interests."
Analysts point out that Russia could not have successfully completed the operation of "cutting Saakashvili down to size" if we did not have modern military hardware and well trained soldiers. We could not have stopped the aggressor's American-armed troops within a few days. Putin has ordered a pay rise for Russian troops in the conflict zone.
Before Georgia's attack on South Ossetia, Putin had ordered the restoration of domestic production of materials and composites for military purposes that we had to buy abroad because our own production had been stopped in the 1990s.
"Putin is a champion of the strong state", Professor BORYAN says, explaining the prime minister's thinking. "For him improving the country's defences, the Army and boosting the prestige of the state has been and remains the main priority".
As for the ability to handle extreme situations, Putin the prime minister behaves in the same as way as Putin the president: he personally goes to "hot spots" to see everything with his own eyes. At the height of the Georgian aggression Putin changed his schedule and flew from the Beijing Olympics to North Ossetia. It was a risky operation because the prime minister was practically next to the battlefield, on the border between North and South Ossetia. He visited the field hospital, talked with the refugees and gave directions to the services. He devoted the last meeting of the Presidium entirely to the question of bringing relief to the conflict zone: he personally checked with the ministers how much food, water and medical supplies had been dispatched, what the state of the roads was, how the ruined houses would be restored and where the children of refugees would go to study.
How to fulfill the three instructions?
"Vladimir Putin was the prime minister before he became the president," head of the Strategic Assessments and Analysis Institute GUSEINOV recalls. "So, it is not a new job for him, and his first 100 days as prime minister this time around did not require so much adaptation as the first time. While in the Yeltsin era he was a novice prime minister, now he is an experienced prime minister who knows the weaknesses and strengths of the Government members whom he himself selected when Zubkov was prime minister. Putin was forming the Government so carefully last autumn so as not to have to change its work drastically under the new president, to ensure s smooth transition of power, to preserve stability and launch the modernisation of the country."
Mr GUSEINOV believes that the problem facing Putin is that he will now have to organize and implement the instructions he had given the Cabinet as president and those that he is issuing now, plus those issued by President Medvedev.
"Putin has formed a Government Presidium. On the face of it, it is a routine organisational matter, but in fact it is highly telling," muses political scientist Alexei MAKARKIN. "Now the Presidium includes the heads of the "power ministries" and the Foreign Ministry. In this way the prime minister for the first time demonstrated that he has influence on them whereas previous prime ministers were just keeping the seat warm. Now the heads of these agencies report to the president and the prime minister. This confirms that Russia now has a political prime minister."
Alexei MAKARKIN also noted that Putin as prime minister acts as an arbiter in disputes between agencies, which is also a new feature. When Fradkov was the prime minister he advocated a cut of the VAT, but at that time nothing happened. Today, according to Alexei MAKARKIN, there is an ongoing argument between the Finance Ministry and the Economics Ministry as to whether increasing GDP or financial stability should be the priority. The arbiter in this argument between Kudrin and Nabiullina will be Prime Minister Putin, who will have the final say.
You will never live to see it happen
Just like in the early stage of the work of the Putin-Medvedev tandem, speculation continues over whether they will continue to work as a team or whether differences and conflicts are inevitable.
Political scientist Stanislav RADKEVICH flatly declares that Russia has already become a parliamentary republic.
"Putin has never crossed Medvedev's path," political scientist and State Duma deputy Sergei MARKOV objects. "Putin has never interfered with the president's prerogatives. Of course, he remains a political figure, but he has made no statements before the G8 or the CIS summits. His behaviour with regard to the incumbent president is perfectly correct."
As regards international affairs, it should be recalled that President Medvedev addressing Russian ambassadors at the Foreign Ministry recently endorsed the Government's involvement in foreign policy. Now Putin can hardly be criticized for meddling in international affairs. The president has urged the Cabinet to be active in the international arena. Putin's own foreign trips were confined to Paris and Beijing. Apart from the Beijing Olympics, the emphasis of these two foreign visits has been on trade and economic cooperation, which is within the Government's brief, a government source has stressed.
When Putin announced that he would hold live Q&A sessions, like in the time of his presidency, some critics muttered that this is the president's prerogative. But Professor BORYAN recalls that Germany's greatest economics minister in the last century, Ludwig Erhard, made weekly addresses to the nation to explain the government's actions. It is hard to imagine Kudrin taking that role, so it would be much more logical to have Putin providing the explanations from the screen.
"Besides, Putin will hold his "TV linkups" not only as prime minister, but also as the leader of the nation which he has been and remains," says political scientist MARKOV.
Contrary to experts' fears, our sources at the Kremlin and the White House categorically deny any friction between the president and the prime minister. "The tandem is working absolutely smoothly," a high-ranking Government official says. "The first 100 days vindicate this tandem which got off to a flying start, displaying energy and effectiveness". The teamwork was particularly evident during the war in South Ossetia. This is an opinion shared by people at the Kremlin and the Government. The spheres of influence were clearly defined and there was not a single discrepancy in assessments, statements and orders issued.
"Galley slave" again
As many analysts note, Putin is obviously competing not with Medvedev but with himself as a recent head of state who is enormously popular and set ambitious tasks. During the eight years of his presidency he did everything to raise the bar high, and now the onus is on him to display quality in the new job. Competing against oneself is far more difficult. Leaving his presidential post Putin surely knew that the prime minister's job would not be easier. On the contrary, it would be more difficult. In economics, you deal with concrete things, ploughing the field which may or may not yield a good harvest. What the prime minister is creating everyone can touch with his hands, see on his dinner table and feel in his purse.
Analysts recall that Putin could have made a graceful exit, remaining in history as a ruler who prevented the disintegration of Russia and pulled it back from the brink of the abyss into which it was about to fall. But the people around Putin stressed that he had taken on the taxing job of prime minister precisely because he feels responsible for his country. He continues to be a "galley slave". Three months before his presidency ran out Putin unveiled a programme of the country's modernisation to 2020. Together with a young and ambitious president, the prime minister, hopefully, will find it easier to bring about a leap forward. In fact the first 100 days have demonstrated this mutual commitment of the president and the prime minister.
By Larisa KAFTAN