The new Cabinet is a month old.
Putin's Cabinet of Ministers was formed a month ago, on May 12, a baby Cabinet. But unlike a human baby who at this age wants nothing but his mother's breast, the Government has no time to grow up, to learn about the world and find its place in it. A baby has all its life ahead of it, it has his parents to care for it, but the Cabinet, even though it is a month old, has itself to take care of a huge and difficult country which it must feed, keep warm, and provide with money.
What is one to make of the first steps of the new Government? What is one to expect from it? Our experts have tried to answer these questions.
A movable feast
In December of last year when it became known that Putin would become the Prime Minister, on New Year's Eve he went to the Government House and told the then Prime Minister Zubkov to make sure that "my joining the Government is perceived as a feast."
Admittedly, it was a nervous feast. Right up to Prime Minister Putin's first working day at the White House (Monday, May 12) the ministers did not know who would keep his job and who would not. One can imagine how jittery they were. Some of them may have learnt their fate on Sunday evening. They were allowed into the room according to a check list to be sure unauthorised officials did not make their way in.
They were inundated with work from the start, so, chances are the ministers recall the former premierships as the real feast, not Putin's. You should see the deputy prime ministers and ministers before the Monday meetings of the presidium: lugging huge folders, voluminous collections of documents, engaged in stormy discussions as they await Putin's appearance, serious and worried faces. In short, people are working feverishly.
Not all of the Government department heads have been confirmed, nor have the briefs of the various ministries been delimited. Also, new faces (coming not only from the Kremlin) are expected to appear in the Government. Things are unlikely to jell until the autumn. But organisational matters are being solved without interrupting the routine of work. The ministers are poring over graphs and numbers trying to square economic dreams (call them ambitious goals, if you like) with reality. The creative endeavours of the ministers do not always meet with Putin's approval. At one presidium meeting he glanced at the forecasts submitted to him and said: "I have looked at the numbers and I see little sign of innovation." Minister Nabiullina set out in search of fresh resources to inject more innovation into her plans.
Stop squabbling
The Government staff works long hours, even Sundays. One government official says Putin has set a tough schedule and is determined to throw out red tape. Here is an example. When Putin spoke at a recent presidium meeting about tax cuts his ghost-written report had a sentence which urged the Government to submit amendments to the Duma as soon as possible. Putin read out the report and immediately challenged it by replacing the words "as soon as possible" with the words "within a week." And - lo and behold: within a week the amendments landed on his desk.
In addition to the tough Prime Minister there is also Mr Shuvalov, the First Deputy Prime Minister. Memories are still fresh in the White House of the severe discipline he had imposed as the head of the Government Office several years ago. Now he is in effect in charge of the day-to-day work of the Government.
"Of course Putin seeks to make the Government work more dynamically, says Vagif GUSEINOV, director of the Strategic Assessments and Analysis Institute. He knows the problems of the White House, the red tape, the squabbling among the Government officials, for example one recalls the quarrel between Minister Sokolov and agency head Shvydkoi (Putin has sacked both). This squabble is one that surfaced. There were many conflicts the public never learned about.
"The Government is still getting its act together, thinks Stanislav RADKEVICH, political scientist and director of the PR-3000 company. But the Government has already proclaimed a socially-oriented policy that includes tax cuts. The question is whether increased social benefits will spur inflation which amounts to a hidden tax on the population that is not written down in any law."
"The Cabinet is clearly committed to following the so-called "Lifshits principle" (share your profits with the people), social expenditures have been announced, says Mikhail AFANASYEV, strategies and analysis director of the Niccolo M group of companies. However, some government moves are controversial. For example, it is unclear how efficient the newly appointed deputy prime ministers coming from Putin's entourage will be. Could it be a case of favouritism?
"The handling of personnel matters is competent, thinks political scientist Guseinov. The people close to Putin have stayed at the Kremlin and the people close to Medvedev have moved to the White House. The Prime Minister and the President have mixed their teams to create a system of mutual dependence, which is a guarantee against conflicts and confrontations. Shuvalov is both Putin's and Medvedev's man. Another important official is the head of the Government Office, Sobyanin, an effective and skilful manager and a man not given to conflict. The Government includes both advocates of a strong state and liberals. It is better if an orchestra has many different voices and not, for example, only trumpeters."
Why does the White House need an ambassador?
As soon as Prime Minister Putin went to Paris and made foreign policy remarks there he was criticised for hogging the powers of the President. But it would be odd if Putin suddenly lost interest in international affairs. After all, Putin takes credit for changing the world's attitude to Russia from one of condescension to respect. Putin is not crowding President Medvedev out the foreign policy field: think of his unexpectedly tough speech in Berlin which in many ways is a continuation of his predecessor's policy.
"I am a little sorry for Lavrov, political scientist Radkevich admits. His job is done for him now by the Prime Minister and now by the President, and yet Lavrov is a top-notch professional."
It is unlikely however that the Foreign Minister will be without work: at the end of the day for Medvedev and Putin to be able to deliver high-profile speeches in the West a lot of preparatory work unseen by the public must be done, and Sergei Lavrov is a past master at this preparation.
But come to think of it, Sergei Lavrov has no reason to grumble. It is standard practice throughout the world that strategic speeches laying out a country's foreign policy are delivered by that country's top authority.
Talking about professionalism. Yuri Ushakov, Russia's Ambassador to the US, was recently appointed as deputy to Sobyanin, Deputy Prime Minister and the head of the Government Office. Americans are said to be in a shock: Ushakov is not a man you can push around, he is adamant in upholding Russian interests, undaunted by America's authority and demands. Here is what he wrote in the newspaper, the Los Angeles Times last year: "We will not allow anyone to determine our domestic or foreign policy. We find insulting the view held by some in Washington that Russia can be used when necessary and then shoved aside and be vilified when it cannot be instrumental in promoting the interests of the US."
Ushakov's appointment as a Government official is a telltale fact. It shows that Russia will continue to consistently promote its interests in the world, and that this will be a major concern for Prime Minister Putin.
Don't squander money
Prime Minister Putin and his team understand of course that the critical priority today is to stop inflation.
"Obviously the Cabinet intends to fight inflation, but from what I see so far it will do so in only one way, by reducing the money supply through the banking system, according to political scientist Mikhail Afanasyev. Experts say the economy is overheated, but this is a dubious argument. The way to fight inflation is to develop the economy and not to restrict the money supply."
"What is needed to conquer inflation is the market and competition, and we don't have that, says professor Yuri Boryan, PhD (Economics), author of the book ‘Russia with Putin after 2008'. Look what happens: they decide to cut the import of American chickens, supposedly to boost domestic production. But who says it will happen? I think our producers will simply raise prices. Our Antimonopoly Committee is obviously underperforming; you can see it by the petrol prices."
The prices will only go down if there is competition.
Professor Boryan believes that the ministers need to explain what their actions bring for the man on the street. He recalls that in Soviet times the economic effect of government moves was carefully calculated with regard to every individual citizen.
"And how does our Government work today? Professor Boryan asks. If the project brings profit it is good, if not it is bad. They care only about macro-economic indicators and the country's prestige. But not a word is said about what the project would mean for you and me. Yet, this is what the people want to know."
Wait 100 days
"The Cabinet's performance is assessed after 100 days, that's the accepted procedure, writes Stanislav Radkevich. It is an important period in business, in the operation of stock exchanges and even political organisations. So far it is too soon to give marks to the Cabinet; one can merely assess the promises and the proposed economic strategy through 2020. Basically, it is a good idea. It is clearly an attempt by the Prime Minister and the President to chart the country's strategy. But if Putin does not work on Plan 2020 and instead devotes himself entirely to inaugurating factories and bridges all over the country, he risks being bogged down in detail at the expense of strategy.
"Many strategic tasks have been put on the back burner, political scientist Mikhail Afanasyev says. For example, the pension reform. Putin also has to come to grips with the problem of inefficient bureaucracy, which can gobble up all the oil revenues."
If even 70% of the national projects are fulfilled by 2020, it would mean that the country will have learned to create something for the first time since Peter the Great, political scientist Vagif Guseinov says. Putin faces a daunting task, he has no justification for failing. He will not be able to put the blame on the oligarchs, or the dire legacy of the past. There is nothing to obstruct him. Yes, he has stopped the country from sliding into an abyss and many believe that Yeltsin's main achievement was to bring Putin to power. No other man could have coped with the job. But today it is not enough to teeter on the edge of an abyss, we must strive towards pinnacles. It is good that Prime Minister Putin has drive, he is trying to achieve what seems to be impossible."
By Larisa KAFTAN