Nezavisimaya Gazeta: “Kremlin offers the governors a deal”
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, set to visit Bashkortostan on February 8, will negotiate with 76-year-old Bashkir President Murtaza Rakhimov, raising the issue of his early resignation. Nine "old-timer" regional leaders who have already served three to four terms in office might also have to step down in March-October 2010.
President Dmitry Medvedev recently said that regional leaders should not serve more than three consecutive terms. The pro-Kremlin United Russia party that submits candidates as prospective governors, however, has little room to maneuver. The easiest solution is to reach an agreement with existing regional leaders so that they can follow the example of Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiyev and publicly resign as partisan candidates.
The tenure of Bashkir President Murtaza Rakhimov is to expire in October 2011—that is, in the run-up to elections for the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. By that time, Rakhimov will have finished his fourth term in office. The Kremlin, which realizes that it would be unwise to force him to resign during the parliamentary election race, has no intention of extending his tenure. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, due to chair a meeting on the development of regional politics in Ufa February 8, is expected to give him the message. A source close to the Presidential Executive Office said that the Kremlin has already selected prospective candidates for the post of republican president.
In early March, United Russia will also submit candidates for the post of Chelyabinsk Region Governor to the president for consideration. The incumbent regional Governor Pyotr Sumin's term is to expire on April 18. This time, United Russia will opt for a modified plan and will submit candidates' lists 45 days pending the expiration of regional leaders' terms, rather than 90 days in advance, as they have done since July 2009, when a new procedure for appointing governors was introduced. Last fall, Medvedev proposed modifying the new system for appointing regional leaders. It became obvious during the nomination of candidates for the post of Sverdlovsk Region Governor that the delayed intrigue regarding the list of candidates automatically turned the incumbent regional leader into a lame duck, and that this could negatively affect the socio-political stability in any given constituent entity.
Chelyabinsk Region Governor Pyotr Sumin, 64, has served three consecutive terms in office since 1996. In late December, the President said that regional leaders should not hold their posts for more than three terms. The Kremlin indicated that Sumin should not expect to be reappointed, the paper's source said.
Two veteran regional leaders—former Sverdlovsk Region Governor Eduard Rossel and Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiyev—have resigned in the past six months. But United Russia included both Rossel and Shaimiyev in the list of possible candidates for the post submitted to the President. Rossel hoped until the last that he would be able to serve one more term in office, while Shamiyev chose to voluntarily step down in a face-saving gesture. He asked the President not to examine his candidacy and to choose his successor, Rustam Minnikhanov, instead.
Sumin will now face a similar situation. A source close to United Russia said the best way for Sumin to step down would be to ask United Russia not to include his candidacy in the planned regional-leader lists. Sumin, who has performed great services for the Chelyabinsk Region, might be able to appoint a successor. "No one yet has any plans to send an outsider to the Chelyabinsk Region," a source close to the Kremlin told the paper.
Due to new requirements, Penza Region Governor Vasily Bochkaryov, 61, who has served three consecutive terms in office since 1998, may have to resign in mid-May. Lipetsk Region Governor Oleg Korolyov, 58, who has also served three terms since 1998 is next in line and will have to resign in late May. Rostov Region Governor Vladimir Chub, 62, has served four terms in office since 1991, and his tenure is to expire in mid-June. The oldest of this group of governors is Orenburg Region Governor Alexei Chernyshov, 71, who has served three terms and has to abandon his post in mid-June. Tambov Region Governor Oleg Betin, 60, has also served three terms in office. His tenure is set to expire in July. President of Chuvashia Nikolai Fyodorov, 52, has served four terms in office since 1994 and will have to step down in late August.
48-year-old President of Kalmykia Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, another old-timer, is still quite young but has already served four terms in office. President of Mordovia Nikolai Merkushkin, 59, who has also served four terms, will have to resign in mid-November.
Professor Rostislav Turovsky of Moscow State University's political science department said he doubted that the President would purposefully replace the governor corps. "In most cases, there are no complains with regard to old-timer governors," Turovsky said. The President is unlikely to sack Lipetsk Governor Korolyov or Rostov Region Governor Chub, Turovsky told the paper. "Otherwise, why did he recently visit both regions?" the political analyst inquired. "Mordovian President Merkushkin, who has addressed a State Council meeting on the development of the regional electronic government, is obviously lobbying for his reappointment but does not realise that he will have to leave a successor in his place," Turovsky said.
He said the system for reappointing governors had not been streamlined completely and that it was impossible to apply this system to all regional leaders. "On the other hand, the system will be looking for a victim in the near future. In effect, one or two governors, rather than all nine, will be sacked," Turovsky said in conclusion.
Elina Bilevskaya
