The agenda of the future parliamentary and presidential elections will have to be determined in spring. Meanwhile, part of the Russian political elite thinks that this question boils down to the trivial question, "who?"
This year, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev will continue evading answers to the question of "the 2012 candidate." It is pointless to be surprised or hope that this issue will be resolved any time soon. The Kremlin has already tested this tactic in 2005-2007 – during the choice between Medvedev and current Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov – and the authorities considered this tactic effective both politically and technologically. The tandem is now using it to avoid the conflict-prone consolidation of the elites around each other.
Part of the elite feels uncomfortable about this. Sometimes, it is difficult to grasp this psychologically. But this does not affect the binary in power. The tandem continues to be effective.
The massive perception of Putin as the national leader and Medvedev as a rational leader, the initiator of modernization, which consolidated during the implementation of national projects, has become much more pronounced. To a certain extent, Putin's relative conservatism is the foundation and guarantee of Medvedev's relative modernism because they are doomed to parry "the challenge of administrative effectiveness" together.
Many issues are at the junction of the president and the prime minister's respective spheres of responsibility that require them to make decisions together. This confluence also gives the political and lobbying groups an opportunity to test the tandem's integrity from time to time. However, a two-pronged principle continues to be used on all key issues (the choice of conservative modernisation, major directions of socio-economic development, the budget, the continued reform of the political system, and foreign policy, to name a few). Occasionally, the prime minister and the president duplicate each other's public statements (the mirror tactic), but in the majority of cases, they elaborate a consolidated position.
This does not mean that the attempts to destabilise the tandem will weaken in the future. In many respects, 2010 will become a decisive year. The general agenda of the future parliamentary (2011) and presidential (2012) elections will have to be determined in spring. In the meantime, a considerable part of the domestic political elite still believes that the issue boils down to the trivial question of "who?"
Moreover, the search for conflicts inside the tandem is typically based on the objective differences in the political styles of the two leaders. Thus, the president is more prone to "provocative" measures in discussing the national agenda and tough personnel decisions after major scandals (the Yevsyukov case, explosions in Ulyanovsk, a fire in Perm, and the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky in police custody). Medvedev's readiness to take surprise steps and even risk his image, such as a trip to a play-off during the world football championship in Slovenia, where the Russian team had a slim chance of success, or consultations with Belarusian opposition journalists, attest to his dynamic style.
The prime minister's style is much more conservative. His staple question-and-answer session, "A Conversation with Vladimir Putin Continued," is very indicative in this respect. However, Putin is striving to expand the social basis of the government's support, of the "Putin majority." He is doing this not only by conservative outreach; he is also searching for new forms of communication with the public. Thus, for instance, Putin took part in the award ceremony of the Muz-TV network.
Nevertheless, the tandem remains united. Moreover, both Putin and Medvedev are setting new criteria for the effectiveness of the elite and the intra-elite interest groups in power. Indicatively, the tandem is obviously not planning to effect the aggressive destabilization of officialdom and corporations in the "cultural revolution" style.
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A search for conflicts inside the tandem is based upon the objective differences in the political styles of Medvedev and Putin.
Dmitry Orlov