Belarusian president gets support from the US in his dispute with Moscow.
Yesterday saw a new spiral in the escalation of the conflict between Moscow and Minsk which flared up in early January over Russian oil supplies to Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenko ordered the border guards to check reports about alleged tightening of the border control by Russia. At the same time it transpired yesterday that Dmitry Peskov, Prime Minister Putin's press secretary, had sent a letter to the Washington Post arguing that the paper was misrepresenting Russia-Belarus differences. He described the Washington Post comments as "ill-thought-out and politically subversive" and not conducive to the solution of the problem.
Relations between Moscow and Minsk took a turn for the worse on Monday when Alexander Lukashenko told the Belarusian border guard agency to report on the situation on the border between Belarus and Russia. "In light of the creation of the Customs Union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan, the situation on the Belarus-Russia border gives some cause for worry," the Belarusian leader said. Contrary to the understandings, Russia is tightening control of the border, he said. "These reports must be checked. If they are true, the presidents should discuss it seriously," Lukashenko said.
The January conflict between Moscow and Minsk over Russian oil supplies to Belarus did not pass unnoticed in the West. The Washington Post published an editorial on the subject titled "Seasonal Cooling" on January 11. The article claims that every January, Russia feels that it should start a politically motivated quarrel with one of its neighbours over supply of oil or gas. This time it was the turn of Belarus.
The paper notes that the sanctions against Minsk have been prompted by the fact that Lukashenko is starting to free himself from Moscow's tutelage while Putin has not given up his dream of restoring Moscow's dominance over the former Soviet states. The Kremlin's tough methods, the paper notes, are counter-productive: even Turkmenistan is in a hurry to establish friendship with the West and China. The Russia-Belarus quarrel should be a wake-up call for Western Europe, a fresh warning that Russia is not a reliable energy supplier.
The Russian Prime Minister's press secretary Dmitry Peskov, in a letter to the Washington Post, claims that the paper has misreported the Russian-Belarusian oil talks. Peskov writes that the argument between Russia and Belarus is part of negotiations between supplier and client. Because of the changed economic situation, Moscow, which has for many years subsidised the Belarusian economy by charging low oil prices, wants to abolish subsidies for that part of the oil which Belarus re-exports in the shape of petroleum products, to which Minsk objects. "Russia seeks simultaneously to meet its obligations to Belarus and remain a reliable supplier for Europe. The ill-considered, politically motivated comments in the Washington Post impede the solution of the problem by the parties concerned," Peskov concludes.
Independent experts believe there is an evident clash of interests between Russia and Belarus. The European Union and the U.S. are trying to get in the fray. Analysts admit the existence of a pattern and some seasonal factors that aggravate the situation over energy supplies to European consumers. "Every winter, come December, Europe is on tenterhooks guessing what will happen to oil and gas supplies from Russia," says Alexei Makarkin, Vice President of the Political Technologies Centre. Last year Moscow was engaged in a spat with Kiev over gas supplies. Now the price of oil for Belarus is at issue. "Russia would like to gain control over the oil refineries in Belarus that process Russian oil," Makarkin explains.
However, Lukashenko is resisting the privatisation of these refineries by asking an unacceptably high price for them. "Politics and commerce intertwine," Makarkin notes. He is convinced that such conflicts are inevitable because Moscow and Minsk have not yet built up their relationship. Every issue becomes the subject of complicated bargaining. Russia is unwilling to follow the old scheme and make concessions to Lukashenko by shoring up the Belarusian economy at its own expense while getting little in return. "We see a struggle of interests in which there is no absolute truth. Peskov is upholding Russia's interests," Makarkin says.
The head of the United Civil Party of Belarus, Stanislav Bogdankevich, puts the blame for the conflicts between Moscow and Minsk on the Belarusian president, calling him "the main initiator." According to Bogdankevich, Russia's offer to continue to supply oil to Belarus for internal consumption at cut prices is good for Minsk. It will save the republic's budget $2 billion. However, Lukashenko thinks Moscow should pay its ally much more.