Nezavisimaya Gazeta: “Elections are a long way off, but…”
Medvedev wins out in the information space, but Putin wins out in the real world.
Looking at the schedules of the presence of the two leaders in the media provided by the Medialogia information-analytical system, one notes several interesting patterns that emerged towards the end of last year.
The first thing that leaps out at you is the dramatic increase in their presence in the media. The figures are impressive: while in January 2009 President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin were mentioned 20,000 and 24,000 times respectively, the December figures were 47,000 and 39,000. This may attest to several political and media trends.
First of all, one has to bear in mind that the bulk of these stories come from pro-establishment media that are consumed by the electorate in ever growing doses. On the one hand, the bifurcation of the vertical power structure requires that the heads of TV channels obey the unwritten law of equal presence of the president and the prime minister. The same is true of the government-owned media. The managing secretary of a major federal periodical once confessed to NG: "If we report Medvedev, Putin must be on the same page as well."
On the other hand, it is significant that every notable move of one of the leaders is followed by an equally impressive move of the other. In the opinion of NG experts, the increased coverage indicates not only that the members of the tandem want to be on the screen more, but that the representatives of the elites that stand behind them are becoming more active.
If proof of the above is needed, it is enough to note the slight fluctuations in the presence of Medvedev and Putin in the media. One can imagine that these gentle slopes will be replaced by spikes as the 2012 campaign approaches. One gets the impression that all the other news is simply washed off the TV screens and from the printed press, giving way to the description of visits and quotes from the speeches of the president and the prime minister.
And indeed one can hardly remember when the government channels last took up party politics. Except at the time of parliamentary elections... The only exception today is the meetings of party members with the president and the prime minister. The audience is usually shown how the country's leader walks down a path in his country residence in the company of the bosses of the four main parties who jostle to occupy a position closest to the president (the prime minister). The Saturday report from Zavidovo, where Dmitry Medvedev met with Vyacheslav Volodin, Gennady Zyuganov, Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Sergei Mironov on the eve of a State Council meeting was a perfect example.
This situation demonstrates a serious ailment of parliamentarism, because the Medvedev-Putin rivalry over air time and for the minds and hearts of the electorate unfolds in a vacuum, without any reference to serious inter-party struggle that produces influential opponents to the rulers. There is no opposition within the tandem: on substantive problems Dmitry Medvedev always supports Vladimir Putin and vice versa. The harmony has reached such a degree of perfection that it has even inspired a New Year animated cartoon in which the perfect coordination between the president and the prime minister (not devoid of amiable "jabs" at each other) is satirised in a way that is sometimes really funny.
However, one cannot but note the significant gap that had developed towards the end of the year in the amount of media coverage of the two leaders. Medvedev's index was nearly 120 in November and Putin's only 60. Apparently the moderators of the process were seriously worried by that circumstance, because in December the president's presence in the media almost stopped growing and the prime minister's indicator jumped to 80.
Studying the coverage, one notes the sustained nature of earlier trends. For example, Putin showed great interest in foreign policy issues early last year and at the end of the year. His international activity, which obviously goes beyond the prime minister's scope, along with his direct pronouncements, prompted speculation about the prospects for the 2012 elections.
Let us review some of the highlights of his participation in major international events, as well as minor events that are significant in the light of the above.
January 2009. Davos (spent two days there), Germany (awarded the Saxon Order of Gratitude). At the same time signs a ten-year gas supply contract with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, thus resolving a conflict that had worried Europe.
March 2009: the prime minister receives his Hungarian counterpart, who is a de facto head of state.
July: US President Barak Obama has breakfast with Putin at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence.
September: Putin attends ceremonies to mark the anniversary of the beginning of WWII in Gdansk.
The spike in publicity in late December has something to do with the line of the current prime minister. At first glance, if the dynamics of the approval ratings is the same as on New Year's Eve, the gap between the president's and the prime minister's indicators will narrow still more in the near future. However, Putin never caught up with Medvedev in media presence in 2009.
Meanwhile the presence of the tandem on TV screens, if one leaves aside the difference in figures, has not changed much in terms of themes and images. It is still strictly official. Still nothing personal, only government affairs. The only exception occurred on New Year's Eve when Putin and Medvedev went skiing together. At the end of the outing, Medvedev was driving a snowmobile with Putin as passenger. The prime minister wore a helmet and the president a ski cap. And he was in the driving seat. He seemed to be choosing the route.
This review draws on the media review from January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009. The data have been provided by the Medialogia information-analytical system specially for Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Alexandra Samarina
