Three days after the crash of the Neva Express there was a blast on a railway in Dagestan, which attracted far less attention because it claimed no victims. Vladimir Putin said there was a link between the two terrorist attacks, but many in Dagestan attribute the explosive situation in the region not so much to the increased activity of the militants as the approaching change of government.
An explosive device equivalent to about 300 grams of TNT was set off on November 30 at the 2354th kilometer of the Moscow-Baku Railway under the locomotive of the Tyumen-Baku passenger train. The locomotive was damaged, but the train was not derailed. It arrived in Baku on December 1. The outcome might have been different if a more powerful explosive device had been used.
Makhachkala does not rule out that the organizers of the terrorist attack never intended to derail the train, but merely wanted to scare the authorities. However, people in Dagestan agree to comment on the situation only on condition of anonymity.
"We recently had a meeting to discuss railway security," says a local security man. "This is the seventh explosion since last summer. But the blasts are designed in such a way as not to cause any casualties. Gas pipelines are another target. Many believe that this is a way of blackmailing the authorities, the message being that they should pay up or else. Many businessmen and the managers of large enterprises already pay protection money to militants. Such explosions and attacks are staged each time we have some political quarrels or change of government. Where is the Kremlin looking? Why take such a long time to appoint our president? Why not do it quietly and quickly? Some people are prepared to derail not only trains but the whole country to get the top job."
The term of Dagestan's president Mukhu Aliyev runs out in February, but preparation for a change of government has been underway for some time now. For this reason, people in Dagestan recall Derbent where a municipal election was held on October 11 and was watched by the whole country. Because of the numerous irregularities - half of the polling stations never opened - the media declared the elections to be illegitimate, but the election commission approved its results.
The rivals accused each other of electoral fraud. The former Public Prosecutor of Dagestan Imam Yaraliyev, who lost the election for the Mayor of Derbent, claimed that the members of election commissions and voters were intimidated in order to disrupt the election which his rival was losing. The representatives of the authorities that supported the winning incumbent mayor Felix Kaziakhmedov, on the contrary, asked: "Why should Kaziakhmedov try to disrupt the election he is bound to win anyway? He commands authority in the city, everybody knows him as the mayor. He won more than 60% of the votes to Yaraliyev's 28%. Who would have benefited if the election was disrupted?"
Officials in Derbent do not hesitate answering that question when talking privately: Imam Yaraliyev is thought to be a man loyal to Senator and oligarch Suleiman Kerimov. In their opinion, Kerimov is determined to topple the incumbent president Mukhu Aliyev. But why was Derbent chosen as the field of battle?
It was the first Russian city to be awarded the UNESCO prize for tolerance because Christians, Muslims and Jews have coexisted there for thousands of years. But in addition to the mosque, the synagogue and the church it has another feature that has to do with ethnicity: Derbent is predominantly populated by Lezgins, but there is a huge Azeri diaspora which is almost as large. From time to time radicals who resent the presence of Azeri culture and language in the city, raise the ethnic issue to provoke civil unrest.
"If these people get their way they will provoke a clash not only between the Lezgins and Azeris, but between Russia and Azerbaijan," a local official told me. "Inter-communal balance has always been kept in Derbent, but if it is upset, the situation will get out of hand."
We climb to the ancient fortress on top of a mountain, a UNESCO protected landmark, a reminder of the state of Caucasian Albania that existed there in the first century. In 2000 when Dagestan was a bridgehead in the war with Chechnya, Vladimir Putin's helicopter landed at that fortress.
"After the Chechen war Putin has always backed Dagestan's leaders," says my interlocutor. "He is well liked here. He is on good terms with Mukhu Aliyev. Some say that part of the reason is that Mukhu Aliyev is conducting a very sound policy with regard to Azerbaijan. But more recently some people at the Kremlin have been trying to discredit our president."
"Who are these people?"
"Kerimov has strong connections at the Kremlin. He is a friend of Serdyukov and Surkov. Do you know that on election day, Surkov called our president every hour asking about Derbent? One had the impression that Moscow couldn't wait to see the elections disrupted. Later, when Ustinov came here to look into the situation, everybody realized that it was a dirty affair: everybody knows that Ustinov does not come to a place without a good reason."
"Why should Moscow have tried to disrupt these elections?"
"To discredit Aliyev and demonstrate to President Medvedev that Aliyev was not coping with his job. You may have noticed that in his address, Medvedev too mentioned ‘certain leaders' who were using the administrative resource in elections." Mukhu Aliyev's supporters say that Derbent had become a battlefield long before October 11. They claim that Kerimov wanted to become a State Duma deputy from Dagestan, but Aliyev did not back his bid. Instead he backed a businessman for membership of the Federation Council on condition that he would register with the tax authorities in Dagestan. In return Dagestan's budget has been receiving 1.5 billion roubles in taxes and the budget of Derbent, where the businessman was registered, got a further 500 million roubles. But then another conflict broke out: the businessman and the president, officials claim, fell out over the issue of taxation. "Kerimov came up with some schemes to divert part of his money from the republic, and the President did not agree," an official at the Dagestan government told me on condition of anonymity. "As a result, Kerimov withdrew his registration. That triggered a smear campaign against Aliyev in the media: the media was writing about Dagestan almost every day. Last year we had 30 explosions and Chechnya had 120, but nothing was written about Chechnya because Surkov had forbidden it. Then four planes loaded with money landed in Makhachkala, and all that money was sent to Derbent."
The representatives of the losing candidate tell a different story. Though Imam Yraliyev refused to talk to Vlast, his supporters claim that in accusing Yaraliyev and Kerimov the authorities were simply trying to cover up their unlawful actions and the victory of Felix Kaziakhmedov.
"What is Dagestan to Kerimov?" a local opposition supporter asked me. "He is a rich man, he has everything, he would never want to be the President here. The truth is that Kerimov does not want to pander to Aliyev and pay him kickbacks for various projects as other rich people in Dagestan do. And why should he pay kickbacks to Aliyev if he doesn't like him?
Kaziakhmedov's rivals have challenged the results of the elections in court. Surprisingly, the city court of Derbent cancelled the results on December 3. It declared the protocols of elections in all the city's electoral commissions and the final protocol of the local electoral commission to be invalid. Even if that ruling is revoked, it is a serious blow to Dagestan's President Mukhu Aliyev.
In November State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov submitted five candidates for President of Dagestan to President Medvedev on behalf of United Russia. They included the incumbent president Mukhu Aliyev, Deputy Prime Minister Magomed Abdulayev, advisor to the Federation Council Speaker Magomed Magomedov, deputy of Dagestan's People's Assembly Magomedsalam Magomedov and the head of the Federal Treasury Department for Dagestan, Saigidgusein Magomedov.
The republican branch of United Russia, people in Makhachkala say, had submitted to Moscow only three candidates, of whom only one, Mukhu Aliyev, made it to the final list of the UR General Council. The publication of the list caused panic in Dagestan. On November 26 the regional parliament deputies staged what amounted to a revolt by contemporary Russian standards: they appealed to the Russian President not to present them with candidates without their preliminary approval. In the opinion of the deputies, not all the candidates proposed by United Russia, "meet the requirements" because "eradicating the unprecedented level of corruption, violence and clannishness and ensuring social and political stability in the Republic of Dagestan calls for a leader who has unchallenged authority and support of the absolute majority of the multinational people of Dagestan."
The appeal effectively says that the deputies dislike at least four of the five proposed candidates, including the son of the former head of Dagestan, Magomedsalam Magomedov, who represents the politics of clans and the representative of the Treasury, Saigidgusein Magomedov, whom the local newspapers describe as the "grey cardinal." Apparently Magomed Magomedov and Magomed Abdulayev are thought to be candidates who "command no authority and do not have the support of the absolute majority:" they are little known in Dagestan because they have spent much of their lives outside the republic. Yet these two candidates appear to be the main contenders for presidency. Magomed Abdulayev is thought to be Medvedev's man: rumour has it that they have known each other since the late 1990s when Abdulayev, a lawyer, taught at the theory of law and state department at the Interior Ministry's St Petersburg University. Early this year Abdulayev, until recently the head of the management legal support department at the Moscow State Management University, suddenly became advisor to Mukhu Aliyev and in late October, a deputy Prime Minister. Candidate Magomed Magomedov has a good personal relationship with the Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov. They are said to play football together and this high connection accounts for Magomed Magomedov being on the coveted short list.
In the opinion of Dagestan political scientist Khadzhimurat Kamalov, the list of candidates for president of the republic was formed in violation of the usual scheme: in the case of Dagestan the right to promote candidates has been "usurped" by the General Council of United Russia from the party's regional council. That is why the list includes candidates who would never have been approved by the parliament of Dagestan. Kamalov claims that Magomed Abdulayev's nomination was engineered by the chief of the Russian President Staff, Sergey Naryshkin, that of Saigitgusein Magomedov by the Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, while Magomed Magomedov has the support of Boris Gryzlov and Magomedsalam Magomedov has the support of Suleiman Kerimov.
The protest of the deputies which was staged with a nod from Mukhu Aliyev, experts claim, did not last long. The day after State Duma deputies Nikolai Pankov and Sergey Neverov arrived in Makhachkala to conduct a "clarification talk" with the rebels, signatures were collected under a new appeal to Dmitry Medvedev. This time the deputies of Dagestan said they would approve any candidate proposed by the Russian President.
Makhachkala does not hide the fact that the parliament, which supports the incumbent president Mukhu Aliyev, had come under heavy pressure.
"Can you imagine what would have happened if Medvedev proposed a candidate and parliament failed to approve him?" a source at the Dagestan government says. "Many heads would have rolled."
Early last week Sergey Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst and State Duma deputy, told journalists that "by his recent statements and actions Mukhu Aliyev put himself in an ambiguous position. Clumsy attempts to organize a support campaign for him immediately after United Russia, in accordance with the federal law, presented its candidates for the head of the republic to the Russian president, will be counterproductive. Obviously, all these actions undermine Aliyev's chances of being reelected."
Administrative intrigues have created a frontline situation in Dagestan. The commander of the Dagestan Interior Ministry's SOBR unit, Sapi Aligadzhiyev, was shot dead in Makhachkala on November 26. Hours later, engineers defused a 10 kilogram TNT equivalent explosive device on the long-distance gas pipeline Mozdok-Gazimagomed which carries gas to Azerbaijan. On November 30 unidentified gunmen killed the head of the Magaramkent district of Dagestan, Abrek Gadzhiyev. And on the same day an explosive device went off under the locomotive of the Tyumen-Baku passenger train.
Obviously, the more time Dmitry Medvedev takes to choose a candidate for president of Dagestan, the more the situation there will deteriorate. By law the Russian president must approve or reject the list submitted to him not later than December 19. The final choice of one candidate who will become the new President of Dagestan is not to be made until mid-February. Between then and now many more trains may be blown up in Dagestan.
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Where is the Kremlin looking? Why take so much time to appoint our President? Why not do it quietly and quickly? To get this post people are prepared to derail not only trains but the whole country.
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The more time Dmitry Medvedev takes to choose the candidate for President OF Dagestan the more the situation there will deteriorate.
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The regional parliament deputies staged what can be described as a revolt in contemporary russian conditions: they appealed to the President OF Russia not to propose candidates without their prior approval.
Olga Allenova
