“Moskovsky Komsomolets”: “Antibiotics Versus the “Chief”
Russian-Belarusian negotiations reach a dead end.
Negotiations with Belarus on duty rates for Russia's oil have reached a dead end. Diplomatic trench warfare has begun around the main topic. The Belarusians question Russia's transport of electric energy to the Kaliningrad Region and Baltic countries, demanding that the tariff be increased by 5.5 times. Russian officials keep busy as well. The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision has unexpectedly found hazardous additives and antibiotics in Belarusian milk. However, experts believe that the parties will soon arrive at an agreement.
Despite the conflict, oil is being supplied to Belarus and Western countries. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov assured his Spanish counterpart and all European partners on Tuesday: "If problems arise they will be caused by the transit country only."
"The bargaining is harsh," political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko told Moskovsky Komsomolets. "Alexander Lukashenko believes that his military and political loyalty to Moscow is priceless. The Kremlin admits that it is very important, but wants to set the price. Russia is giving its neighbour many advantages, for example, in agriculture. But duty-free oil is a black hole for our economy."
The expert believes that the Customs Union agreement weakens Russia's stance: "Everything should have been considered thoroughly before signing the agreement. And now everyone is rightfully referring to these agreements (on duty-free oil supplies - M.K.). But Belarus will not evade the duties."
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has already said that there will be separate agreements for energy resources within the Customs Union. It was important not to throw the baby out with the bath water. The Customs Unions is advantageous for everyone. There must be a compromise.
Alexander Fadeyev, head of the Belarus department at the Institute of CIS countries, believes that compromise options are on the surface: "The most evident option is to sell Belarusian fuel and energy assets to Russia in settlement of the duties. The moment of truth has come for Belarus on this issue. Another option is to retain the special terms for the brotherly nation for the next six months with the duty rates slightly higher than before. The Belarusians have no grounds to refer to the Customs Union. When signing the agreement, it was decided that there would be separate agreements for fuel and energy. Russia is suffering losses from the Customs Union as it is. That's why our stance on oil is firm and rational."
During the whole of the January holiday, Alexander Lukashenko-called the "Chief" (Batka, also meaning "Father")-pretended to be far from any global economic or political issues. He played for the Belarusian amateur hockey team at the Christmas presidential tournament. But experts believe that the provocative behaviour of Vladimir Semashko, the Belarusian First Deputy Prime Minister and head of the country's delegation in Moscow and statements made by Belarusian energy industry representatives could all have been dictated by "Daddy." A Belarusian official will never do anything without asking for the President's permission.
Lukashenko chaired a meeting on security in Minsk on Monday. He evidently intended the meeting to remind Russia that Belarus remained its only Western ally. The "Chief" knows the approach to Russian authorities. Whatever harsh and insulting tone his statements may take and however sharply he may be criticized by the media, he always manages to agree on acceptable terms. Russia is ready to pay for the ephemeral Union State and declarations of eternal friendship, and the Belarusian leader knows how to make use of it.
by Igor Karmazin
