Ukrainian and Russian government working groups are preparing a package of documents on deepening economic cooperation to be signed before the New Year. The main cooperation projects are in aviation, engineering and the nuclear industry, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said after talks with her Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on Friday. Economists note that plans for cooperation in these areas have been in preparation from the spring of 2008, but pending the presidential election in Ukraine they can only be signed in the form of declarations of intent.
Ukrainian and Russian experts have long been saying almost with one voice that Vladimir Putin effectively supports Yulia Tymoshenko for president of Ukraine.
They cite as proof Gazprom's readiness to compromise and not to punish Ukraine for shortfalls in the consumption of gas, and bilateral agreements aimed at deepening cooperation in the aerospace and nuclear sectors declared by the two prime ministers. However, political scientists and politicians are sure that actual agreements will only be signed after the elections and that what Putin and Tymoshenko promise today is just Putin's attempt to help Yulia Tymoshenko in the upcoming elections.
Meanwhile Tymoshenko herself claims that the relevant ministries have practically completed a draft strategic contract on nuclear energy cooperation until 2020. The members of the Ukrainian delegation say the document includes a long-term agreement on supplies of Russian nuclear fuel to Ukraine which was to be signed in July this year; Ukraine's participation in a uranium enrichment centre and, most importantly, Russia's participation in completing the construction of reactors at Ukrainian nuclear power plants and the use of Russian technology to build a Ukrainian plant for the production of nuclear fuel for nuclear power stations.
Ilona Zayets, an expert of the Ukrainian Atomic News Agency, notes that there is nothing new in these projects: the agreements have been under discussion throughout the year. "I think a memorandum of intent will be signed on the eve of the presidential elections in Ukraine. But the implementation of the accords is by no means a foregone conclusion even if Yulia Tymoshenko becomes president. Under Ukrainian law, all issues connected with nuclear energy must be decided by parliament. There are also some technological issues, beginning from feasibility studies for the projects and ending with the choice of sites and public hearings," Zayets notes.
Tymoshenko also spoke about two other major areas of cooperation with Russia, machine-building and aircraft-building industry. Ukrainian agencies have not disclosed the content of the documents being prepared. Tymoshenko said, however, that the two governments were planning to sign a protocol on cooperation between enterprises for 2010 before the end of the year. She said it would primarily deal with machine-building, an area in which the two sides gained some positive experience of cooperation this year and on which they will build next year.
A source close to the government reminded NG that Tymoshenko did not invent cooperation between Ukrainian and Russian enterprises: "Such protocols have been signed since 1998. At certain times, the cooperation programme included up to a thousand enterprises which received equipment parts and units under a simplified procedure authorised by the government. The scheme has been used by producers of aircraft and medical equipment, automobiles, buses, agricultural and construction machines, etc."
But NG's interlocutor pointed out that in Yalta, Vladimir Putin cited some figures of trade between Ukraine and Russia. "Our trade with Ukraine has dropped significantly: Ukraine now lags behind Belarus which has moved to first place among our trade and economic partners," the Russian Prime Minister said. Ukrainian-Russian trade is under $15 billion a year compared with about $25 billion before the crisis, and two years ago experts predicted a growth of up to $40 billion. "So, under current conditions the cooperation plan is a programme for survival rather than development," NG's source says.
Economic analyst Igor Lutsenko agrees. He says that in the time of crisis the main problem for Ukrainian and Russian producers is not increasing output, but finding markets. "Russia has always been the leader in this field. The Russians have a smooth running system, procedures and experienced specialists. It is by no means certain that they will be willing to share their expertise with Ukrainian enterprises," he said. Previously, the enterprises have always sought cooperation, but it was stymied by political factors. "Ukraine has been, and remains, the subject in this scheme of things while Russia is the object. So one could only speak about development of economic cooperation after the elections, depending on how Russia assesses their winner," Lutsenko explained.
Aircraft industry, a field in which both Russia and Ukraine are interested in cooperation, may be an exception from the rule. Yulia Tymoshenko proposed to Vladimir Putin to swap minority stakes in state aircraft-building enterprises. She explained that this would help breathe new life into the An-70 project and to continue work on the An-140, An-148 and An-124-100 projects. Russia is expected to answer to Tymoshenko's proposal later in the year.
Experts note that the crisis is a favourable time for concentrating efforts in this hi-tech sphere in order to break into new markets, but they draw attention to the fact that neither Russia, still less Ukraine, has free money to invest in such ambitious projects.
Vasily Yurchishin, the head of the Razumkov Centre Economic Programmes told NG: "Russia and Ukraine have signed many fine documents that make it possible to develop economic cooperation but few of them are being implemented. The preparation of large-scale projects between the two states often proceeds in secrecy, nobody knows the exact terms of the agreements." Yurchishin is sure that this time Tymoshenko was premature in declaring a breakthrough in Russian-Ukrainian economic relations because no dramatic changes will take place in this sphere until after the presidential elections.
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We are talking above all about machine-building.
Tatyana Ivzhenko
