Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has appreciated Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's jokes about Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, her ability to negotiate gas prices with Putin is more important for Ukraine. Both of these circumstances demonstrate who can influence her chances in the upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections.
Last week in Yalta, Tymoshenko deliberately or unwittingly took up the positions of Viktor Yanukovych, which were created for him in 2004 when Leonid Kuchma was the Ukrainian impresario of Vladimir Putin. Moreover, Kuchma acted as Yanukovych's manager during those national presidential elections. Russia's display of support for Yanukovych was considered a major advantage in the campaign.
Then Russian President Vladimir Putin and then head of the Presidential Executive Office, Dmitry Medvedev, attended celebrations marking the liberation of Kiev from Nazi occupation. Putin and Medvedev stood together with then Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych on the rostrum. Yanukovych, a man of more simplicity in those times,, offered them some candy from his pocket. Putin did not take the candy, while Medvedev accepted. At that moment, voters got a clear idea of which candidate Russia supported.
Five years later, the incumbent Russian prime minister is dealing with Yulia Tymoshenko. Owing to existing stereotypes, this should also be viewed as veiled support for one of Ukraine's presidential candidates. Considering the current political realities of Ukraine, Yanukovych's candy "embarrassment" seems childish in light of the confrontation between Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko that has become so heated that a sense of politeness has disappeared. This also concerns the Ukrainian president's relationship with his Russian counterpart. Tymoshenko cannot wait to see Yushchenko leave the Ukrainian political scene, while Yushchenko is trying to scheme against her whenever possible.
Nobody seems to care that Ukraine will be negatively affected in the long run.
Obviously, Yushchenko was not very happy about media reports that the Ukrainian and Russian prime ministers had a lengthy meeting. Nor was he pleased to hear about Putin's jokes about Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili's visit to Kiev implying all kinds of "lost victories" and Putin's mocking advice for them to dine without ties. This does not seem to be appropriate humour for a Russian prime minister. However, Saakashvili's visit to Kiev as well as Yushchenko's skewed response to the talks between Putin and Tymoshenko in Yalta were not so wise diplomatically either.
Tymoshenko's support of Putin's "tie" jokes has hardly scored her any extra electoral support. On the other hand, Yushchenko has irritated her so much in the past month and a half that Tymoshenko's restraint must have given way; all the more so as she and Putin focused on gas, rather than necktie-eating. Ukraine now considers gas issues far more important than Yushchenko and Saakashvili's relationship.
Tymoshenko seemed far more confident in this respect, mostly because Putin had once again assured her that Russia would not fine Ukraine for failure to take the required amounts of gas. However, Yushchenko recently said that Ukraine would have to pay up to $8 billion in fines as a result of Tymoshenko's actions. Although the decision not to fine Ukraine was not formalised, Putin's statement was enough to show Yushchenko in a bad light and to show how agreements could be reached without being friends.
The price that Ukraine (Tymoshenko) will have to pay in case of sanctions remains unclear. But Tymoshenko publicly denies any interference in the integrity of the Ukrainian gas-pipeline network, in which Russia is greatly interested.
Apart from inviting Saakashvili to Kiev in order to spite Putin, Yushchenko made another mistake by writing a letter to his Russian counterpart the other day. In an effort to regain the role of chief gas negotiator, Yushchenko proposed revising the main January 19, 2009 gas agreements. However, Yushchenko has lost his chance on this because Putin and Tymoshenko are already successfully tackling gas issues. Second, some of the letter's points might make one believe that the experts in Yushchenko's team who drafted the document are extremely forgetful. Yushchenko should not tell Medvedev that Ukraine regularly pays for Russian gas because it was Yushchenko who had recently stopped the transfer of funds for the October payment. Considering the unsuccessful relationship between Medvedev and Yushchenko and that effective dialogue between Putin and Tymoshenko, the Kremlin will obviously ignore the letter of the lame-duck Ukrainian president who will step down three months from now. Putin, Medvedev and Tymoshenko are pragmatists. And Moscow wants to facilitate sustained gas deliveries to Europe after January 17, 2010.
Tymoshenko, who also wants to win in the upcoming presidential elections, will have to gather the support of eastern Ukrainian voters who traditionally sympathise with Russia and prefer Yanukovych. It appears that she is succeeding so far.
A delegation from Ukraine's national energy company Naftogaz is expected to arrive in Moscow on November 24. The two sides are to sign the long-awaited document on the volume of imported gas bought by Ukraine in 2009. The document will stipulate a clause on the lack of claims and penalties on the part of Russian energy giant Gazprom. There are also plans to hold talks with Vnesheconombank, Gazprombank and Alfa Bank on issuing $500 million - $1 billion loans to Naftogaz. They will also negotiate Russian gas volumes, due to be purchased by Ukraine in 2010. So far, Kiev wants to buy up to 30 billion cubic metres, plus another 20%, if necessary.
New gas and gas-transit prices will be clarified after Moscow and Kiev agree on the base price of gas. Ukraine's Minister of the Economy Bohdan Danylyshyn told Zerkalo Nedeli paper, a non-partisan but strongly liberal Ukrainian publication, that 16.6 billion cu m of gas had been purchased in January-September 2009. Such volumes are to total 26 billion cu m by late 2009, with the overall contracted volumes reaching 42 billion cu m. The Ukrainian economy will require 27-29 billion cu m of imported gas in 2010.
Andrei Kapustin