“Izvestia”: “A sad anniversary”
Yesterday Ukraine celebrated the anniversary of the Orange Revolution, but it would be wrong to say "celebrated" because every relatively decent person felt ashamed or offended. There was nothing to celebrate.
Ukraine has become a more oligarchic country, rather than a democratic one.
A pattern of competitive oligarchy took shape in Ukraine as early as the 1990s because of weak presidents Leonid Kravchyuk and Leonid Kuchma. Political and economic oligarchs were not restrained either by law, political tradition or a "strong hand" (which simply did not exist). They were endlessly fighting over industrial assets, powerful positions and other relevant resources. They followed our example, but their elite were provincial and attracted mostly to nationalism. And we found an effective leader in 1999 with Vladimir Putin. He managed to reign in oligarchs and make the state more democratic within a short span of time. Ukraine did not find its Putin in 2004 and went down a different road.
The rivalry of the two oligarchic coalitions during the presidential elections ended in a staged "revolution." The leaders and sponsors of the Orange coalition which lost the second round proved to be more creative and courageous than their white-blue rivals. They organised massive street protests with Western support and insisted on the illegal "third round." The violation of the law was proclaimed to be the "triumph of democracy."
Incidentally, in theory this outrage in itself did not preclude the advent of a more or less strong president who could put things in order relying on "popular legitimacy" and the help of Western governments. At least such an attempt could have been made. However, the Orange candidate was Viktor Yushchenko, an exceptionally confused and dim politician. During the "revolution" he paid for the third round by agreeing to carry out constitutional reform which deprived the president of a number of important powers. Later on he failed to win this back. Yushchenko used democracy to cover up for his cowardice and stupidity. He quickly wasted his popularity and authority and completely wrecked relations with almost all of his allies. During the past few years the oligarchy got out of hand. One row followed another; Prime Ministers Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovich were openly quarreling with the president; a crisis of the government developed into a parliamentary crisis; deputy votes were sold and resold, and the media owners were getting fatter and fatter... In the meantime, the economy completely degraded, security-related agencies disintegrated and the international reputation, which initially rose on the wave of "revolutionary" romanticism, sank to zero.
Now "a strong hand" and the attainment of order are no longer historical options but indispensable conditions for preserving or, to be more precise, saving the state. Now Ukraine must elect its "own Putin." Even the West understands this. It has long been disenchanted with the Stone-Age oligarchy, which cannot be considered a "young democracy" by any stretch of imagination. The idea of a "young democracy" has been used in diplomatic games. However, it is not certain that Ukraine will indeed elect "her Putin" and that the new leader will manage to achieve something.
In any event, the Orange "revolution" marked the beginning of the most difficult and shameful period in the history of the former Ukrainian SSR. If this period does not come to an end in the near future, the Ukrainian state may cease to exist. This is not the worst option.
Vitaly Ivanov
