“Kommersant”: "Political pressure rises in gas pipeline"
How Moscow and Brussels regarded Kiev's warnings.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has suggested that Dmitry Medvedev changes January gas contracts between Gazprom and Naftogaz to avoid difficulties with transit of gas to the EU. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU warned that Kiev would not be able to deliver gas to Europe if Gazprom turns the taps off. Moscow and Brussels reacted in unison: Ukraine is practicing political blackmail.
A letter from Yushchenko to Dmitry Medvedev was posted yesterday on the Ukrainian president's web-site. In fact, it was the the second letter in the history of the two leaders' relationships. The first one was a response to Medvedev's statement that until Ukraine has a new president, Moscow would not continue high level dialogue. This, however, did not prevent Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko from talking over pressing issues.
The Ukrainian president says in his address that fulfillment of obligations set forth in the agreements of January 19 is "extremely daunting" for his country. Firstly, because in the last three years Russian gas prices for Ukraine have increased "nearly three times and now exceed the average European price," while transit rates remain the same, from almost half to a third of European rates, which led to loss of $2-3 billion of transit profits for Naftogaz, Ukraine's state energy company. Secondly, the sales contract is "take-or-pay" while the transit contract is not "deliver-or-pay," which allows Gazprom to impose fines on Naftogaz but never pay for cuts in transit fees. This resulted in the state company's budget deficit of over $4 billion, Yushchenko calculated. Therefore, Russia can at any time charge Ukraine $7.5-8.5 billion for the outstanding 14 billion cu m of gas.
The above-mentioned arguments prompted Yushchenko to propose "immediate changes in some clauses." Specifically, the letter says, there must be "an economically based gas price" and the maximum volume of gas purchased must be reduced to 30 billion cu m per year (the contract of January 19, 2009 stipulates 40 billion cu m in 2009 and 50 billion cu m in 2010). Another proposal is for Gazprom to fix in the contract the minimum transit level - say, 100bn cu m per year with a new transit rate formula and "symmetrical penalties."
According to a forecast by the Ukrainian president's representative for international energy security issues Bohdan Sokolovsky, the gas price for Ukraine in 2010 should amount to $270-300, with transit rates doubling ($1.09-1.7 for each 1,000 cu m per 100 km in 2009).
The main request, however, was in the final part of Yushchenko's letter. The contracts must be supplemented with "an addendum on non-application in 2009 of penalties for amounts of non-purchased gas by Ukraine". On the same day Ukraine's Ambassador to the EU Andri Veselovsky warned at a briefing in Brussels, "With all our desire and goodwill we cannot do anything for the EU if Gazprom ceases supplies to Ukraine." He let Brussels know that Europe should be ready for Russian gas cuts.
Moscow's response, although delivered by presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko and not by the respondent himself, was a strong objection. "Threats of gas transit crisis smack of political blackmail," he said surprised at the fact that a proposal of this kind was not officially submitted to Russia, but posted on a web-site. "The authors must have been in a hurry, they wanted to be on time for the session of Russia-Ukraine intergovernmental economy committee when Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko would cover energy sector relations," Prikhodko explained and said "Russia has no intention of taking part in these intra-Ukrainian fights." The corporate level is sufficient for such talks, he thinks.
Brussels' position on the issue has matched with Russia's for the first time. In his talk with ITAR-TASS, a source from the European Commission called Ukraine's actions "pure and simple blackmailing" and said that at the beginning of the week Ukraine's Foreign Minister Petro Poroshenko requested from the EU a large financial aid for the country's energy sector. In mid-November, International Monetary Fund suspended Ukraine support program and rejected an appeal for $3.4 billion.
Yesterday Bohdan Sokolovsky said the gas price for Ukraine in 2010 is $270-300 per 1,000 cu m. Gazprom Ukraine (100% owned by Gazprom) confirmed the accuracy of the forecast. The final price will be defined during the talks between Gazprom and Naftogaz, with due account of any adequate suggestions from Ukraine, according to a source. "Gazprom will not accept the proposal made by Viktor Yushchenko," said the source. Another spokesperson for Ukraine's Ministry of fuel and energy told Kommersant that Russian and Ukrainian PMs would not be discussing the supply agreement on reduced gas purchase. So, Yulia Tymoshenko's government did ignore the president's request.
Natalia Grib; Oleg Gavrish
