Today, the governments of Russia and Ukraine will try to undo the knot of gas problems between the two countries. The two countries' prime ministers, Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko, will meet in Yalta at the CIS heads of government summit. However, experts doubt that this meeting will help avoid the recurrent gas problems between the two countries during the forthcoming winter.
The prime ministers will discuss at least four issues connected with Russian gas supplies and gas transportation to Europe: gas prices for Ukraine, the volume of gas supplies to that country for next year, penalties for Ukraine's failure to purchase contracted volumes of gas this year, and Russia's participation in the effort to modernise the Ukrainian gas pipeline system.
"First, the sides must revise the scope of supplies for next year," says Dmitry Lyutyagin, an analyst with Veles Capital investment company. This year, Gazprom and Naftogaz [of Ukraine] have signed a ten-year supply agreement. In 2009, Ukraine enjoyed a 20% discount on the price. "From 2010, prices will be dictated by the market."
"Most probably, the bargaining will cover these issues.
Ukraine will try to retain the discount scheme," Lyutyagin says. The Ukrainian government has already promised to retain special gas prices for chemical plants for the first quarter of next year. It is not yet clear how much gas Ukraine will buy next year. Under the contracts, its gas purchases will exceed 50 billion cubic metres. However, according to Izvestia's previous reports, Ukraine will fail to purchase similar amounts of contracted gas this year. Today it will try to defer its obligations to next year.
The upcoming meeting was preceded by Yulia Tymoshenko's unexpected demarche related to Russia's participation in the effort to modernise the Ukrainian gas pipeline system. Early this week, Russia's Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said this issue was included in the intergovernmental gas agreement that is being prepared now.
Yesterday, Grigory Nemyrya, Ukraine's deputy prime minister, said that "the Ukrainian side welcomes Russia's intention to take part in the effort to modernise the Ukrainian gas pipeline system." However, it turned out that his opinion differed from that of his direct superior.
Yulia Tymoshenko said that she would never let that happen. "Being in power or in opposition, I will never permit the establishment of any international consortiums or other countries' encroachments on our gas pipeline system. This is our national treasure that must always remain Ukraine's state-owned asset," the government's press service quotes her as saying.
"This is yet another proof that the Ukrainian government does not have a uniform and distinct position and that a constructive dialogue with Ukraine is impossible," says Maxim Shein, head of the analytical department at Broker Credit Service. He thinks today's meeting will not decide anything. Nor will it help to avoid crises in winter. "We have a vast experience of talks in this format. As we see it, they produce no change and give no guarantees," Shein says.
Varvara Aglamishiyan
