“Kommersant” (Moscow), №1, 11.01.2010 “The price paid”
The new energy conflict between Moscow and Minsk follows a certain logic. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who, unlike his Russian counterparts, has long renounced his desire for a union state, is again displaying his talent as an ingenious political player. He knows that if he presses the right button at the right time, "big brother" will yield. Lukashenko has done this for many years and should be given credit for his skill in outwitting Russian presidents Boris Yeltsin Vladimir Putin and now Dmitry Medvedev.
Lukashenko's line in relations with Moscow remains the same. He is always ready to promise something. He merely hints that Minsk was not getting along with the previous leader but will certainly get along with the new one and his aim is achieved. Lukashenko promises, receives, and cheats with amazing ease and never fails to find an asymmetrical response beyond the bounds of decency when his partner objects.
This time electric supplies to the Kaliningrad Region are at stake. Before, the disputes revolved around customs and air defence, a turn to the West, and readiness to create a bloc of transit countries together with Ukraine. In every case, Russia appears to be the debtor, not Belarus.
The current issue costs about $5 billion. The reasons are obvious. Pensioners account for about one third of the Belarusian population of 9 million. In effect, to this day, Russia foots the bill for these pensioners, while Lukashenko contrived not to reciprocate for this in any way.
Today, Belarus is facing serious economic problems. Lukashenko inherited the most industrially modernized republic in the former USSR, but he has squeezed it dry and is in dire need of modernization and innovation. As a result, pensioners and public-sector employees will have to wait for their share-all government funds will be spent on the purchase of equipment and technologies. Lukashenko does not doubt for a moment his ability to resolve problems at someone else's expense. If he does not receive a loan from Putin, he will get one from Medvedev by promising him the laurels of the consolidator. Nor does he find it awkward in the least to ask for money from the West by promising to meet it halfway or from China by giving it a pledge to promote its position in Central Europe.
It is time for Moscow to give up wishful thinking. This is already happening, but not in a very obvious way. Respectable men from the Presidential Executive Office and the Foreign Ministry, who liked to repeat "He may be a son-of-a-bitch, but he is our son-of-a-bitch," have become less comfortable with this quote. They seem to realize that they put Lukashenko into the wrong category. In effect, we are dealing with a "new son-of-a-bitch"-the kind who walks by himself.
By Dmitry Oreshkin, political analyst
