Moscow and Bratislava have calculated the relevant energy-security formula for the European Union.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin held talks on November 16 with his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico who arrived in Moscow on a working visit. Moscow and Bratislava, which prioritise their energy dialogue, focused on this issue once again. Fico displayed a loyal attitude towards Russia, saying Ukraine was mostly responsible for previous and future crises regarding delivery of Russian gas to Europe.
Fico no doubt easily won the sympathies of Prime Minister Putin, when he said at the beginning of the talks that Slovakia appreciated Russia's stance on the January 2009 gas crisis. The Slovak Prime Minister blamed Ukraine, an unreliable partner of Russian energy giant Gazprom, for the situation. The prime minister, who has been recently warning his EU counterparts that the January 2009 scenario may be repeated due to Kiev's unconstructive official stand, was impressed by Fico's words. Putin expressed hope that both countries would be able to restore their bilateral trade turnover to pre-crisis levels ($9.3 billion) through joint efforts. Of this sum, Russian exports account for $6.3 billion. Consequently, high global fuel and energy prices may boost bilateral trade far more effectively than administrative methods at a time when fuel and energy make up for 90% of Russia's exports to Slovakia.
The Slovak economy now gets 98% of its natural gas from Russia. Bratislava, which has learned its lessons from the January 2009 gas crisis and which realises that the crisis may be repeated this winter, strives to get rid of its servile dependence on Gazprom. Bratislava, which claims unequivocal support for Moscow, assesses two scenarios for solving the energy-security problem. The first scenario stipulates construction of new underground gas reservoirs in Slovakia. Although the relevant proposals have already been submitted to Gazprom, it is unclear whether such projects will be implemented. Slovakia's Economy Minister Lubomir Jahnatek has already expressed his disappointment in this connection. Bratislava has opted for a second scenario, calling for its involvement in building the proposed Nabucco gas pipeline from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March in Austria. This project is backed by several European Union states and the United States. Bratislava says openly that it prioritises the Nabucco pipeline in the context of facilitating energy security, citing the need to diversify gas-supply routes.
Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner and analyst with the independent Moscow-based RusEnergy consultancy, believes that Gazprom will accept the profitable proposals to build underground gas reservoirs in Slovakia. Similar projects will be implemented in Austria, thereby making it possible to turn both countries into a major EU regional gas centre (hub). However, Krutikhin draws attention to the fact that Bratislava is more interested in the Nabucco project. He said project South Stream did not fit in with EU plans to create a joint European gas-supply network and to integrate the EU gas market.
Talks between Putin and Fico were followed by a business lunch. After that, both prime ministers talked to journalists and told them about their joint statement, noting the strategic importance of energy cooperation and the significance of Russian-Slovak constructive dialogue on the energy-security issue and sustained energy supplies, including shipments, transits and deliveries of fuel and energy resources to end customers.
Putin and Fico mostly voiced similar opinions of their talks. Putin called them detailed and constructive, while Fico referred to them as constructive and rational. Putin said nothing about gas and Ukraine, giving the floor to Fico who spoke on both statesmen's behalf. Fico admitted honestly that this issue had taken up most of the talks. Putin also warned bluntly that Europe might once again find itself without gas if Kiev failed to make monthly payments. Moscow and Bratislava have a limited potential for preventing another crisis. Putin merely promised to promptly notify Fico of the impending threat. Fico thanked him in a restrained manner and went to Gazprom in order to obtain more substantial guarantees there.
Igor Naumov
