Judging by Dmitry Medvedev's addresses to the Federal Assembly, he formally passed the halfway pointof his presidential term last Thursday. Maybe he has even covered its bigger part. Medvedev established the practice of making these addresses in November, and for this reason in 2011 he will make his address at the peak of parliamentary elections and at the beginning of the presidential campaign. In the circumstances, he may either sum up the results of his presidency if he decides to leave, or make an election speech if he dares compete for the next term. It is during his speech in the Kremlin's Georgiyevsky Hall in two years that Medvedev will announce to the entire nation what deal he reached with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who will sit in the first row to support him.
If the presidency is measured by addresses, Medvedev will make only one speech to the Federal Assembly next year. He may either declare with satisfaction that the process of reforms he announced has got underway and it is necessary to speed it up and deepen it. Or he will have to admit that his new political programme of modernisation is stuck, and requires new orientation training, new personnel and other elements of sophisticated perestroika.
In any case, 2010 will become another decisive and destiny-making year in Russian politics. Some events will have to take place. First of all, in order to start the new orientation training it is necessary to wait for the United Russia congress and find out whether Putin will join the party or not. This will make it clear whether the political system will start moving faster towards party government of parliamentary majority and, in perspective, probably towards a party monopoly on the presidential seat.
Nevertheless, the first year of the new decade will be the most important at least for two reasons. First, during this year we will see a switch from words to deeds in the modernisation programme, which Medvedev has finally formulated. This means that at the end of the year, the plans and projects of his presidential mandate are bound to be assessed as well as the first results of his presidency.
Second, during this year the ruling tandem will have to "sit down and strike a deal" - at least tentatively and off the record. After Putin and Medvedev's reciprocal statement to the effect that they may go for any option, the ruling elite will regard as a test any actions by the participants in the tandem, including the president's address and the government's future measures on its implementation. This will be a test of real intentions. It will show whether "all options are still possible" or the decision has been made. Absence of a clear-cut political decision on the 2012 problem will increasingly create almost a stalemate for the elite's motivation and the vertical power structure's efficiency in implementing Medvedev's modernisation strategy.
This political agenda for 2010 means that not only the presidential address to the Federal Assembly but also a list of Medvedev's instructions on its implementation will become the main political documents. Out of 25 specific instructions, Putin is responsible for 18.
Finally, one more key event will take place - appointment of the man in charge of what Medvedev called the main domestic problem - the North Caucasus. The president has not authorised anyone to perform this task and is likely to appoint this person himself. The only future personnel decision which he has directly mentioned in his address, and which stems from it, will be indicative and important.
The author is Dmitry Badovsky, deputy director of the Social Systems Institute.