Moscow has not made up its mind about what candidate to support in the Ukrainian presidential election.
Russia and Ukraine are once again at each other's throats over the transit of Russian gas to the European Union through Ukrainian territory. To everyone's dismay, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin supported Yulia Tymoshenko, the main opponent of Viktor Yanukovych in the presidential election, by effectively absolving her of all responsibility for Ukraine's possible default on its gas supply payments.
Independent experts maintain that Moscow has not yet made up its mind on what candidate to support in the Ukrainian presidential race.
Putin met with leaders of United Russia at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence just last Friday. His conversation with the activists of the party, which he does not in fact belong to but whose very survival hinges on him, opened with the unexpected topic of gas cooperation between Moscow and Kiev.
As Putin had gathered from a telephone conversation with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko shortly before the meeting, that very cooperation was at risk yet again. "It looks like we are facing problems with the payment for our energy again. Which is just very sad," Putin said, adding that according to Tymoshenko, President Viktor Yushchenko was blocking the transfer of funds meant to pay for the Russian gas supplies. Putin went on to point out that Ukraine clearly had the money.
"Ukraine's gold and currency reserves stand at $27-$28 billion, and the limit that ensures the national currency's stability and support of foreign trade transactions is around $12 billion, according to the IMF," the Russian Prime Minister stressed. He cited the position of the IMF, whose experts deemed it "possible and proper" for Ukraine to use their reserves to pay Russia for energy supplies. He also called attention to the fact that Moscow had made an advance payment for gas transit to the EU for the first quarter of 2010.
"We credited the Ukrainian economy to the tune of about $2.5 billion. So the question is, what do we do now?"
Yushchenko, whom Putin blamed for the looming Russian-Ukrainian gas war at the instigation of Tymoshenko, reacted promptly. Within hours, the Ukrainian President's Representative for Energy Security, Bohdan Sokolovsky, responded by denouncing Putin's remarks as "groundless and unfriendly". He also asserted that Yushchenko deserved much of the credit for the fact that Ukraine has been paying for the fuel "in spite of the absolutely unfair and crippling gas contracts which Tymoshenko signed in January." As for the IMF's recommendation to use gold and currency reserves to pay for energy supplies, Sokolovsky contended that "Ukraine doesn't need help from outside advisers on how to use the IMF loan."
Europe is not just passively standing by and watching all of this unfold. On Saturday, a representative of the European Commission suggested that Putin's remarks were simply part of the election campaign in Ukraine and stressed that "we will not allow ourselves to be drawn into the election campaign and we cannot allow European citizens to suffer as a result of a potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine".
Experts are convinced that the actions of Putin, who supports Tymoshenko, the main opponent of the supposedly pro-Russian presidential candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, indicate uncertainty about which of the two front runners Russia should support.
As Vice President of the Political Technologies Centre Alexei Makarkin sees it, Russia is clearly torn on the issue. Tymoshenko may have promised that Ukraine would abide by the contracts signed in January, but, by all appearances, the country is simply unable to do so. At the same time, Yanukovych has "seriously let down" the Kremlin at least twice, first by agreeing to a second round of the presidential election in 2004 and to a snap election for parliament a year ago.
With all of these negative experiences still fresh in memory, Russia would hate to make a mistake in choosing a "reliable partner" in the new presidential election. "The position Moscow takes on the gas issue will reveal whom it has decided to support", the expert stressed. "If the position is tough, it will deal a blow to Tymoshenko, the one responsible for the economy, and show that all bets are on Yanukovych. If the reaction is soft, it will signify support for Tymoshenko."
Makarkin also emphasised the significance of the format of the meeting where Putin made his remarks. The meeting with the leaders of United Russia, which was held before the meeting of the Security Council chaired by President Dmitry Medvedev, was deliberately chosen to make the remarks that were addressed to not only Ukraine but also to the EU as a kind of "force component."
But in the opinion of Yevgeny Minchenko, director of the International Institute for Political Expertise, the roles within the Medvedev-Putin tandem are so dispersed that the Russian president supports his Ukrainian colleague and the Russian Prime Minister supports the Ukrainian Prime Minister. "No matter which of the two contenders wins, Russia will not look as a loser," Minchenko explained.
He's certain that Tymoshenko would like Russia to be neutral about the presidential elections in Ukraine. For this purpose, she's attempting to exaggerate Yushchenko's role in solving economic issues. Either way, the support she received from Putin seems to be a one-off move.
Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner with the consulting company RusEnergy, considers the threat of a new gas war between Russia and Ukraine to be very real. "Yushchenko may disrupt payments for gas in order to undermine the positions of his two main opponents in the presidential race," the expert noted. But he went on to highlight another factor: Gazprom's desire to portray Ukraine as an unreliable partner in gas cooperation. Gazprom may stir up a crisis to convince the EU of the necessity to go ahead with the construction of gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine under the Baltic and Black Seas. "It is unclear which of these factors will work. Actually, both of them might," Krutikhin concluded.
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The threat of a new gas war between Moscow and Kiev is real.
Elina Bilevskaya, Igor Naumov
