The crisis will in no way hinder the renewal of data on the Russian population: Rosstat will be given back the money taken from its 2010 budget and compensated for the shortfalls in its budgeting in 2009.
The 2010 budget earmarks 10.5 billion roubles for a nationwide census, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said.
A Finance Ministry official has confirmed that the Ministry is introducing amendments to the second reading of the budget at the State Duma, including an extra 10.5 billion roubles to fund the census. Deputy chief of Rosstat Alexander Surinov announced quite happily, "We've already sent the cost estimate to the Finance Ministry."
The cost estimate of 2010's census activities was about 10 billion roubles (a total of 18 billion roubles); the 2009 budget earmarked a little over 3 billion roubles for statistical surveys and censuses, and that sum was reduced to 2.4 billion roubles in April. No new allocations were made for the census, but the original allocations for 2009 were restored, a Finance Ministry official explained: "A political decision to that effect has already been made." The Prime Minister's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, pointed out that the main argument is the government's need for a census in order to make decisions on the country's social and economic development.
"People are both producers and consumers at the same time, and information on their numbers, employment, education, etc. is crucial in determining what exactly is in store for the economy, as well as how to design policy in healthcare and education, military fields and pension reform," Valery Yelizarov, head of the Population Studies Centre at Moscow University, explained. The census also serves to help assess the effectiveness of demographic policy, whether or not the birthrate has increased in all the regions or only in those where it was already high to begin with. Information on the population is important for business, as well, according to Mr Yelizarov. "It's the foundation of everything: the number of consumers, their age breakdown, and so forth."
Updating statistics on the population can also influence budget transfers to the regions which are counted on a per capita basis, as Vladimir Klimanov, director of the Institute of Public Finances Reform, pointed out: for small regions, a population increase of even a few dozen thousand can make a significant financial difference.
In September, deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach announced that the national census would be pushed back to 2013 due to financial constraints. Head of Rosstat Vladimir Sokolin called the postponement of the census a mistake and went on to announce his resignation in October.
First Deputy Duma Speaker Oleg Morozov noted that the first to make a case for the census to Mr Putin was the United Russia Party. According to him, an effective economic policy and decisions on how to spend budget money are impossible without knowledge of the population's structure.
Experts have also come out and publicly criticised the postponement of the census. A member of the President's Executive Office indicated that the President's Administration saw the move as impracticable and made this viewpoint quite clear to President Dmitry Medvedev.
The Economic Development Ministry, like the government as a whole, maintains that the cost of holding a census should be included in 2010's draft budget and has always been in favour of the census, a Ministry spokesman said. Similarly, Rosstat has raised the issue of the need to conduct a census in 2010 on more than one occasion, a Ministry of Economic Development official said. Important social issues are coming to the fore and, without a doubt, the use of outdated statistics (the last census was held back in 2002) seriously affects the quality of decisions. Notably, a postponement of the census would violate the 2002 law calling for a census to be held at least once every ten years.
A Rosstat official pointed out that the UN also recommends that countries hold a census once every ten years, and the current round is taking place in 2004-2014. "We've called on the CIS countries to conduct censuses around 2010, so these are primarily moral obligations," Mr Surinov said. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Belarus have already held censuses.
"I'm glad the Government has changed its mind," Director of the Information Development Institute at the Higher School of Economics Vladimir Bessonov said, "it means the decision-makers are reacting appropriately to the expert community's opinion. Yet, until Rosstat's status is upgraded, such decisions can only be made as an act of goodwill."
Maxim Kostenko; Olga Kuvshinova; Natalya Pismennaya