Contrary to the President's instructions, the all-Russia population census will be delayed for two years.
The all-Russia population census scheduled for 2010 may be yet another victim of the crisis. Alexander Surinov, deputy head of the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat), said yesterday that the 10 billion roubles needed to conduct the population census in 2010 is an "excessive burden on the budget," and therefore the census may be postponed until 2012. What is so notable about this situation is the fact that the government intends to ignore President Dmitry Medvedev's instructions of May 2009 to fund the holding of the census in 2010. Despite these instructions, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin instructed the Economic Development Ministry in July to submit to the government its proposals on changing the timeframe for the census.
A proposal was made to postpone the all-Russia population census till October 2012, as Alexander Surinov stated in Vladivostok yesterday. "By now, experts have already drafted the cost estimate and a respective proposal has been submitted to the ministry. The decision to change the timeframe for the census will be examined at the federal level," he said. According to him, this decision was a result of the global financial crisis. About 10 billion roubles are needed to conduct the population census, and such costs are simply intolerable for the budget today. "The year 2011 is no good either because it is election year, when the budget will incur huge expenses," the official said, adding that Rosstat is technically ready to conduct the census in 2010.
Pointing to the importance of this event, Mr Surinov underlined that only the census can "give the exact figure of the country's population, which is of great economic and social significance. The data obtained will make it possible to draft accurate forecasts of the country's social and economic development and concrete programmes aimed at improving the overall quality of life," Rosstat's spokesman said.
The question of who exactly initiated the postponement of this measure, which is so important for the country and on whose initial deadline President Medvedev insisted, remains unanswered. Earlier, Rosstat declared its readiness to cut the initially planned expenditure on the census from 17 to 10.5 billion roubles, and then even to 8.6 billion roubles. Rosstat declined to comment on this issue in greater detail. "What Alexander Surinov said is the only comment Rosstat can provide today," said Grigory Simanovich, Rosstat's press secretary, to the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily. "There is nothing else to say now."
Meanwhile, the present clash about the census is yet another striking instance of contradictions in the upper echelons of state power. In his instructions of May 5 addressed to Prime Minister Putin, President Medvedev asked to set up a government commission and provide the necessary funds "in order to ensure preparations for, and the holding of, the census." By all appearances, his instructions were ignored, because during a government meeting held on July 21 to discuss key targets of the federal budget for 2010 and the 2011-2012 planned period, Prime Minister Putin gave distinctly different instructions. To be more precise, he instructed Economics Minister Elvira Nabiullina to submit to the government proposals to change the timeframe for the census.
The issue may finally be clarified at a government meeting slated for August 20, by which time all the departments concerned must submit their proposals on how to cut expenses.
It seems that contradictions and discrepancies in the instructions and statements issued by the President and the Prime Minister are becoming more common. Suffice it to mention the Russian leaders' disagreements on Russia's accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), for instance. In a joint statement by the Russian and US Presidents issued after their meeting in May, Mr Medvedev and Mr Obama instructed their governments to take measures in order to expedite Russia's entry into the WTO. At the St Petersburg economic form held in early June, both sides expressed their certainty that this issue would be settled by the end of this year. Yet on June 9, Mr Putin made a totally unexpected statement that Moscow would stop to negotiate this issue on its own and that it would join the WTO only within the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. With that, all 16 years of negotiations went down the drain, since the Customs Union is to be established only next year. Mr Medvedev, however, went on to disown this plan in July by proposing that the three countries join the WTO separately. "By coordinating some common standards and positions within the Customs Union, its three member countries can join [the WTO] separately, which is, in my mind, a simpler and more realistic scheme," he said after the G8 summit in Italy.
According to some experts, the postponement of the census stemmed from not only the tug-of-war exercises between the President and the Prime Minister and economic factors, but from political considerations as well. The objective picture of the current state of affairs in the Russian economy and society in general in the crisis period could be undesirable for state authorities before the 2011 elections.
"Formally, the postponement of the census complies with the law, but it may have a negative effect on the country's social and economic situation," says Andrei Chernyavsky, a consultant at the Due Diligence department of the 2K Audit Business Consultations company. Its distinctive feature should be an expanded geographic coverage. In other words, the census statistics must cover all of Russia's populated areas, which means that information on the situation in the Russian regions must be more complete. The population census in 2010 could provide real figures on unemployment in the regions because respective Rosstat methods are imperfect. "I think the census should be conducted next year, especially considering the fact that Rosstat was ready to cut the census expenses to 8.6 billion roubles," the expert said. "To compare: the 2002 census cost the budget 4 billion roubles. Statistical data from the 2010 population census could be taken into account in drafting a development programme for Russia in general and the Russian regions in particular."
Igor Nikolayev, director of the strategic analysis department at the company FBK, believes there is no certainty that the census will be held in 2012. "If the country fails to register economic growth this year or next year, there is a high probability that the census may be delayed to an even later year than 2012. As for laws, they can always be rewritten," the analyst said. Just recently the laws were rewritten quite easily in connection with the establishment of state corporations, the analyst noted. "As an economist, I am sorry to see such programmes [like the census] being closed," Nikolayev lamented. "The government spent 2 trillion roubles to support the financial and banking system last year. The 10 billion required for the census is less than 1% of this sum. We are penny-wise and pound-foolish," he added.
Sergei Kulikov