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"RBC daily": " Economic Development Ministry gets a respite"

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The preparations for a forecast of Russia’s economic development until 2030 have been postponed for a year.
The government has decided not to push forward the preparation of a forecast of Russia’s social and economic development until 2030. Initially, it was to be made public by August 1, 2009, but the Ministry of Economic Development was given a respite until November 2010. Analysts think this is a reasonable decision: even a one-year plan is difficult during the crisis, much less long-term planning.

The preparations for a forecast of Russia's economic development until 2030 have been postponed for a year.
The government has decided not to push forward the preparation of a forecast of Russia's social and economic development until 2030. Initially, it was to be made public by August 1, 2009, but the Ministry of Economic Development was given a respite until November 2010. Analysts think this is a reasonable decision: even a one-year plan is difficult during the crisis, much less long-term planning.

Vladimir Putin pointed to the need to draft a 2030 forecast last autumn, after the government approved Russia's development strategy until 2020. The ministry was instructed to draft the document by August 1, 2009, but the date was postponed until October 30, 2010 by a government resolution.

"This is an altogether reasonable decision," says Sergei Khestanov, Managing Director at Finam Management. "There is Kotelnikov's theorem according to which it is impossible to predict a process for a term which is twice as long as the fluctuation term. To translate this from the language of physics into that of finance, this means that any long-term planning is a waste of time and paper now.

Even short-term planning cannot be clear during a crisis, and the 2009 federal budget shows this clearly, Khestanov says. The first version of this document was based on $95 per barrel of oil and a 6%-7% GDP growth. "Over the past seven months the document has been changed beyond recognition," Mr Khestanov says. Russia's Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, admitted recently that Russia would not be able to achieve its pre-crisis GDP growth rates in the foreseeable future.

Russia's development strategy until 2020 may also be revised. The document projects that, when the Russian economy recovers after the crisis. it will rank with the top five global economies. It says a Russian's real income will rise by 100%-150%, labour productivity by 200%-400%, the average life span will increase to 72-75 years, and the birthrate will exceed the deathrate.

Inga Vorobyova