Intensive guesswork about who would be the next president, strange reshuffling of personnel and big political shows - this is how we will remember the year 2007. An abrupt change of pattern in the political kaleidoscope prevented many from believing Vladimir Putin's final decision to become the Prime Minister under President Dmitry Medvedev.
Since the initial Day of Memory of Victims of Political Reprisals in 1991, the surviving victims of Stalinist terror, their relatives and sympathisers have gathered at the Solovki Stone on Lubyanka Square in Moscow, and in other cities for the purpose of reading aloud the names of the dead. But Russia's leading authorities have never taken part in such events, or observed this day because, as polls show, about half of all people in Russia still have a positive opinion of Stalin.
It was all the more surprising to see Putin on October 30, 2007at Butovo where 20,765 people - from clergymen to peasants - were shot in the 1930s. Having paid his respects to the memory of the dead, the President admitted in his commentary for the press: "This is a special tragedy for our country because of the enormous scale. Hundreds of thousands, millions of people were killed, tortured, or sent to the camps... They were the cream of the nation. To this day, we feel the impact of this action. We must do more to make sure this will never be forgotten."
Human rights ombudsman Vladimir Lukin said that the late Patriarch Alexy II encouraged Putin to visit Butovo. The Patriarch called this place a "Russian Golgotha". Lukin thought it would be good for a president to attend such events and acknowledge such traditions. Nevertheless a commemoration for the political victims of October 30 was not on Medvedev's agenda last year. This is understandable - Putin visited the Butovo testing ground when the Duma election campaign was at its peak. In effect, it became a referendum of confidence in him personally. Meanwhile, in the summer of 2007, Putin deemed it acceptable to elaborate on the gloomy pages of domestic history in a different vein.
In June he invited delegates from the national conference of humanities and social science teachers to discuss with them at length the problems of teaching history. At the end of the discussion, he summed up his views as follows: "Yes, we have had horrible pages in our history. We should remember events starting with 1937 and not forget about them. But other countries have had even worse moments. At any rate, we did not use nuclear weapons against civilians; we did not pour chemicals on lands thousands of miles away; we did not drop seven times more bombs on a small country than were dropped in the entire Great Patriotic War, as was the case in Vietnam, for instance. We did not have dark periods like Nazism, for example. So many things have happened in the history of every state and every nation. We should not allow anyone to impose a guilt complex on us. Let them think about themselves."
The Munich impetus
This statement was not a surprise in the political context at that point. In February 2007, the Russian President shocked the international community by his open speech at the Munich security conference. He started by half-jokingly asking the chairperson not to switch off his microphone for excessive controversy. He criticised the United States for ignoring international law and imposing on all states its "pernicious" concept of a "unipolar world". He noted spitefully: "By the way, Russia is constantly being taught what democracy is all about. But these teachers are not too eager to study it themselves." In the end, he promised that Russia will not renounce its historical "privilege to conduct independent foreign policy."
Later on, Putin's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told Vedomosti that the President's statements in March had been openly expressed before in face-to-face conversations with world leaders.
The effect of Putin's speech proved to be very strong. As a Vedomosti correspondent reported from the site, "the audience received Putin's speech in complete silence, some people even covering their faces with their hands. Listening to Putin, Gates (US Defence Secretary Robert Gates) turned red but did not say a word. He sat absolutely still until the break. He blushed again when Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov approached him for a couple of minutes." Some participants in the conference even thought Putin's speech signalled the start of a new Cold War. Mr Ivanov had to assuage these apprehensions.
At a Government meeting on economic issues literally in five days, Putin promoted him to the rank of the First Deputy Prime Minister. Formerly, this position in Mikhail Fradkov's cabinet of ministers was only occupied by Medvedev, who had been dealing with priority national projects since the autumn of 2005, and was regarded as Putin's most likely successor for this reason (Vedomosti wrote about this in the "Chronicles..." on July 6, 2009). From then on, Ivanov and Medvedev, whom Putin described as his closest confidants in his book "In the First Person", became equal in their political weight. In February 2007, 15% of those polled by the Public Opinion fund (FOM) on changes in Mr Ivanov's career thought "he was designated to become the President's successor." Financial Times journalists who interviewed Mr Ivanov after his promotion, thought in April: "Mr Putin's choice could depend on how he perceives the next President's main task. If it is continuing Russia's economic modernisation in a broadly benign environment, Mr Medvedev might get the nod; if it is dealing with deteriorating international conditions - such as after US air strikes on Iran - that may be a job for Mr Ivanov. A global crisis after military action against Iran ... is also seen as a potential pretext for the Kremlin's ‘third term' party to persuade Mr Putin to stay on."
By the summer of 2007, Ivanov and Medvedev were virtually equal in popularity. According to the Levada Centre, in July Ivanov even took the lead - 37% of those polled were ready to vote for him against 29% for Medvedev (according to the same source, in December 2006, the score was 18-35 in Medvedev's favour. Both were a step below the man to whom they owed their political careers, according to polls.
"You wear me down!"
In February 2007, Putin reacted with these words to the fourth attempt by journalists to find out about his plans for the future during the annual news conference. His presidential term expired in March 2008. The Constitution prohibited one and the same person from occupying the office of president for a third consecutive term. He spoke about his future with a different level of evasiveness, only making it clear that he was not dreaming of remaining the President longer than it was allowed. At the afore-mentioned news conference, he finally lost his patience. "How do I see myself? I see myself as a human being above all."
In late March, Speaker of the Federation Council Sergei Mironov proposed an informal discussion of his initiative - to extend the powers of President Putin - to the heads of the regional legislative assemblies. According to VTsIOM (Russian Public Opinion Research Centre), in early April, this initiative was supported by 69% of those polled, 23% against.
"In Russian history, there is only one precedent for this - in 1598 when Tsar Fyodor Ioannovich (the last Ryurikovich) died. People began persuading Boris Godunov to occupy the tsarist throne, everyone from his sister, Tsar Fyodor's widow, to the general population. Otherwise, they argued, we will be in for chaotic times. At that time, the majority saw stability in Godunov (although the Times of Troubles still befell Russia in 1604 because of the economic crisis," political scientist Alexei Makarkin believes. He recalled two similar cases when the people asked a departing tsar to stay. Ivan the Terrible resorted to such a manoeuvre before the introduction of oprichnina (rule by fear), while Stalin publicly admitted the possibility of retirement at the 19th Party Congress. "However, whereas Grozny and Stalin behaved like that only to test the elite, that is, to see whose eyes would sparkle brighter, Putin pursued a different objective," Makarkin goes on. "He did not decide for himself the question of whether to go or to stay. Rather he wanted to decide on his successor, to see how each would reveal themselves. So, for Russian history, this was a unique situation," he concludes.
Makarkin believes that analogies can be found in world history. It may be recalled how British Prime Minister Winston Churchill watched his successor Anthony Eden before giving him the power. "Or, more recently, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo conferred power to his successor. Having assumed office, the latter immediately accused his predecessor of being the country's number one bribe-taker," Makarkin notes. "In 2007, Putin was busy drafting a scenario, which ruled out such an option. He wanted to resolve two tasks - to choose a successor who would be guided by team spirit, and to stay (in power) despite leaving," he concludes.
"Let's think something up together"
Putin's September decision to dismiss Fradkov's Government and to promote head of financial intelligence Viktor Zubkov to the post of the Prime Minister came as a bolt from the blue. Head of the Federal Political Council of the Union of Right Forces Nikita Belykh expressed the following opinion: "I think all this is sooner about the nomination for the presidential race in March 2008 than about the Prime Minister."
Political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky predicted: "...now that Medvedev and Ivanov have learned their place in history, and it apparently proved to be less than they only recently thought, figures like Sergei Sobyanin and Vladimir Yakunin are moving to the fore, and could probably compete with Viktor Zubkov if it comes to that."
However, Putin's name continued to be on the informal list of nominees, probably even against his will. This political drama culminated during the congress of United Russia on October 1 when weaver Yelena Lapshina took the floor after Putin and Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov. This is what she enthusiastically said: "Esteemed Mr Putin, the years of your presidency have changed life for the better for very many people, including simple working people like me, and for rural workers like my parents. We would like these changes for the better to continue. Regrettably, we are not convinced that they will continue because you have refused to go for a third presidential term. I see many people of authority and simply very clever people here, and I am addressing all of you: let's think something up together to enable Mr Putin to continue being our President after 2008!"
She was followed by General Secretary of the Paralympic Committee Mikhail Terentyev in a wheel chair. In July 2007, together with Putin he successfully presented Russia's application for the Winter Olympics in Sochi in 2014. Having recalled this victory, Terentyev said: "Mr Putin, you are lucky, and Russia will be lucky as long as you are its President. For tens of millions of people you have become a talisman, a symbol of the nation's successful development. It is, of course, for you to decide which place in the country's politics you will occupy, but no matter what decision you make, I would like you to be with us, with Russia."
After that, President of Opora Rossii, an organisation of small- and medium-sized companies, Sergei Borisov, asked Putin to join United Russia and head it on a par with Boris Gryzlov.
Rector of Samara's Medical University Gennady Kotelnikov had the honour of making the announcement: "...today, Vladimir Putin heads United Russia's election list. He is leading the party to victory in order to head the Government in the spring of 2008."
After a break, Putin thanked all those who took the floor. Once again, he refused to change the Constitution or to receive a party card, but accepted a proposal to head the federal list of the party of power. "The hall burst into victorious shouts and applause, and there was nothing artificial about this euphoria," the party newspaper Yedinaya Rossiya (United Russia) wrote.
"I did not select the speakers. A lot of people wanted to speak," Andrei Isayev, member of the bureau of the party's supreme council said. "All these appeals were studied by the Organising Committee, which made the final selection. Obviously, this was not a directive from above," he concluded.
Borisov told Vedomosti that he told the party's leaders about his idea two days before the congress convened, and learned several hours before it started that he would speak. This is how he explained his position: "A man, who has been placed in charge of the country, should lead the leading party. Otherwise, there is some uncertainty. For now, I don't know why the United Russia leader is not a member of the party, but I think this is only a matter of time."
Unannounced referendum
Putin's consent to become the leader of United Russia exerted a truly magic effect on the course of the Duma election campaign.
According to FOM, in September 2007, the rating of confidence in United Russia was a mere 37%. Samara Region Governor Konstantin Titov refused to guarantee 45% of the votes for the party of power at the Duma elections, considering this an impossible task, and lost his post as a result (as Vedomosti was told by a source in the regional administration). With Putin's participation in December, United Russia took 64.3% of the votes at the regional parliament elections, which is 1.5 times more than it did during the 2003 elections (the Communist Party received 11.57%, the Liberal Democratic Party 8.14%, the Just Russia Party 7.74%, whereas other parties did not surmount the 7% barrier.
It was with good reason that Kotelnikov persuaded Putin at the United Russia congress: "If you respond positively, December 2, 2007 will see not just another Duma vote but a true national referendum, during which Russian citizens will confirm your status as the national leader for many years ahead." True, in some regions United Russia managed to get 100% and even more votes (109% in Mordovia, for one), prompting critics to speak of a different kind of magic other than the use of Putin's name in the election campaign.
The second act of the election campaign was staged in December, after the Duma elections. On December 11, the leaders of United Russia, Just Russia, the Agrarian Party, and the Civil Force (the two latter parties did not earn seats in the Duma) visited Putin at the Kremlin and told him that they wanted to make Dmitry Medvedev a presidential nominee.
At the final session of the United Russia congress on December 17 Putin gave his consent to this proposal: "I consider this choice to be the best... Mr Medvedev is an exceptionally honest and decent man. In the last few years... he has grown from a good lawyer and expert into an excellent, strong-willed administrator with a government mindset... It is not shameful or dangerous to give him the main levers of the country's management, Russia's destiny." At the same congress, Medvedev agreed to run for the presidency, and immediately offered Putin the position to head the Government in the event of his victory. Putin accepted this offer. In the 2008 presidential elections, 70.28% voted for Medvedev, which was enough for him to win.
In an interview with FT in April 2007, Ivanov was happy to say that there was no election campaign in modern Russia: "...America has it, but we don't. The time periods are approximately the same - 2008, but we are saving huge money. We'd rather spend it on a new airport, a new road, or on support of science. I am saying this frankly, even somewhat cynically but I think its better this way."