Novaya Gazeta: "Vlast with Yevgeny Kiselev"
National leader, or NAL for short (Nal is Russian slang for "slush fund" -- NG)
Today's topic: Mr Putin reminds and warns us...
It has been a year since Dmitry Medvedev assumed the office of President and Vladimir Putin that of Prime Minister. Time puts everything in its place, and many things have become clearer during the year of dual power.
Obviously, Mr Putin was reluctant to leave the office of President, and became Prime Minister only in order to remain in power without violating the Constitution.
Mr Putin has managed to retain broad powers and influence. It is clear why the country and the world see Mr Putin as the senior member of the duo.
The hopes for an early "thaw" were naïve. Things have not gone beyond liberal statements. But it is equally clear that Mr Medvedev is not Mr Putin's puppet.
Likewise, it is clear that it was not by chance that Mr Putin said in an interview with Japanese media recently that Mr Medvedev was a very decent man who will consider his political future in light of the results of his joint work with Mr Putin. One may well interpret these words both as a reminder of certain arrangements and as a warning. Perhaps it is indicative of a certain nervousness due to the fact that the balance of power has tipped slightly in favour of the Kremlin.
However, Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev are not political enemies. The differences between them are mainly stylistic. But style matters. The erosion of the Soviet regime is thought to have started as the Stalin era, when young people called stilyagi began to show interest in the Western lifestyle (Translator's note - stilyagi comes from the Russian word for style). Interestingly, one of the main film to premier during the first year of Dmitry Medvedev's presidency is called Stilyagi. Artists are sometimes more sensitive to approaching change than politicians.
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The week's winners and losers
* Russian Railways President Vladimir YAKUNIN is one of this week's winners. His company will benefit from a Russian-Mongolian joint venture set up to develop coal, copper and gold fields by receiving a 50% shares in the Ulan-Bator Railway.
* Businessman Oleg DERIPASKA may lose his aluminium plant in Montenegro. The price of aluminium has dropped and the plant has run up a debt of 150 million euros, almost a quarter of Montenegro's annual budget. The employees, who had not been paid for two months, went on strike, at which point the Government decided to nationalise the enterprise.
* The Governor of the Kirov Region, Nikita BELYKH, has scored a victory. President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Kirov could not have come at a better time for Governor Belykh, who has yet to resolve his differences with the local chapter of the United Russia Party.
* Moscow Mayor Yury LUZHKOV is one of the losers. According to official reports, the gas pipeline explosion on Ozyornaya Street was caused by exposure, and there is no talk of other factors. Mr Luzhkov is not directly responsible, of course, but the utilities services have shown obvious negligence.
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Conversation with an expert. "You are the Prime Minister and the President can fire you."
Our guest today is political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin.
Question: How do you account for the fact that the Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev's approval ratings, after several months of slowly declining, have suddenly picked up?
Answer: The shock has worn off a bit. The economy seems to have adapted itself to the crisis. In any case, the decline is not as dramatic as in the first quarter. People have more or less got used to the new conditions. Yes, life is not as good, but we are used to enduring hardship. On the whole, the situation is stabilising. The stock market is beginning to recover. People are thankful and supportive of the leaders who, in their opinion, are ensuring this stabilisation. The approval ratings of the two leaders dropped by 5-7% during the quarter, but they may rebound in connection with successes in the foreign political arena and in the economy.
Q: Or because spring is here.
A: Actually, things are not all that bad. Life goes on, and people plant potatoes in their vegetable plots. The holidays are behind us. We won the World Championship. People feel excited because summertime is approaching and credit must go to the Party, of course, because there is no one else to thank. Accordingly, the approval ratings of the leaders are rising. In theory, this means that the country feels well. This former Soviet people has never been treated well by the authorities, and has not been spoiled by comfortable living conditions. In that sense, this country is a good environment for strong leaders. We respond readily to any positive news. The question is how long the economic situation will continue to decline, and how soon people realise this.
I doubt that the situation will improve this year. This is a temporary improvement. The second wave of the crisis will arrive by autumn, or, more likely, people will become more aware of the first wave. Public opinion will take a long time to come to terms with reality and compare it with what it sees on television.
Q: How would you describe the results of the first year of Dmitry Medvedev as President and Vladimir Putin as Prime Minister?
A: The two-headed vertical power structure we talked about a year ago is in place. Medvedev has survived a year as President, despite the fact that there were grounds for thinking that he was a temporary figure. Political scientists like to say that Putin is an authoritarian while Medvedev is a liberal. It does not matter which of them is bad and which is good. There is a real separation of powers, and the two centres of power that do not always act in sync. That makes for a restrained policy. Although Putin holds the controls in his hands, I think Medvedev is strengthening his position, creating a power base, and pursuing a fairly active regional policy. If the Prime Minister were to tell the President that it was time to give up his office, I think the answer would be rather harsh: why should I?
One should also bear in mind that the outlook is far from perfect. Somebody will have to answer for the consequences of the crisis. In this situation, the two men, who in principle get along well together, will have to decide who should take the blame. And that will be Putin, because he has created the current economic model.
Q: Mr Medvedev is going to establish a commission on economic modernisation. Is he staking a claim to take on more power in managing strategic issues?
A: Perhaps. Mr Medvedev is beginning to feel like a President and sternly criticise the Government, without mentioning the Prime Minister by name, of course. It took Mr Putin two or three years to test the various levers of power, and it was only in 2003 or 2004 that we saw the real Putin. Medvedev's trajectory is similar: he has been looking around for a year, now he is beginning to touch the gear shift and try to shift into first or second gear, or perhaps even reverse.
Q: What should Putin do?
A: I think Putin's trademark triumphant style is going little by little. While Medvedev smiles, Mr Putin clenches his jaws. But while previously this happened when he discussed external affairs, for example when he made remarks about a strict uncle in a pith helmet, today his dissatisfaction is over internal problems. Mr Putin sees no way out. And there is no way out.
It seems hardly possible that he could again become the President, who is beyond criticism. He has to get used to being the Prime Minister and to the fact that the President could fire him.
Q: How do you assess Putin's remarks in an interview with the Japanese journalists to the effect that Medvedev's fate depends on how he will behave?
A: A politician must live up to his reputation. Mr Putin still considers himself number one, and many in the country think so. But regional governors and top business executives are already permitting themselves to gently mock the Prime Minister. In December, Mr Putin indicated to the regional governors that the tax on corporate profits should be cut by 4%, but they ignored it. It means that the vertical power structure has its limits. The regions are conducting business as they did before. Sometimes you hear that "the national leader says one thing, but this is not a guide to action for us, we know our own minds."
There is a sense that Vladimir Putin has ceased to be an icon, and this is the main change connected with the dual power structure. If there were one boss, obviously there would have been no option. Now any regional governor or business leader realises that if he fails to get what he wants from Ministries, he can go to the Kremlin. Dual power creates an entirely new political situation.
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You can listen to the Vlast programme live every Friday at 8 pm Moscow time on Ekho Moskvy radio.
