Commentary by political psychologist: what has changed in the behaviour of the President and the Prime Minister in their new roles.
Speaking about psychological changes in Dmitry Medvedev in the first year of his presidency one should bear in mind that as a mature man in his forties he cannot change drastically. Changes are taking place, but they do not make Medvedev a different person from what he was a year ago.
He has had to mature quickly
The psychological changes have to do above all with the fact that Medvedev had to settle in his new role of President. While at the start of his presidency it was obvious that he was groping, now he can see the road ahead clearly. This reflects his self-esteem. During the year Medvedev's self-esteem has obviously grown, he feels more confident and comfortable in his new role although he has yet to find his field of activity. This is due to the fact that, given the existing political setup, the current role of the President is unclear to Medvedev himself or to anybody else. It is clear that not all the i's have been dotted in the relations between the two leaders. However, one feels that President Medvedev has staked out certain spheres of activity as his own. They are above all international politics and reform of the judiciary.
The second sphere of activity has to do with the President's relationship with society. I think it is important for him that he is the President of the whole people. It is not by chance that in a meeting with the KPRF leaders President Medvedev supported the call for social justice. He had to show that he is not the President of a party, but the President of all. This owes much to his legal background: he thinks of himself as a lawyer, i.e. a man of the law. If the law sets down that the President is the President of the whole people that is how he will behave. It is a telltale sign which shows that he has made some decisions regarding himself.
An analysis of the President's political views shows that he rejects ideology as a matter of principle. He does not want to be seen as a right-winger or a left-winger although some observers claim that he thinks of himself as a liberal while others discern an authoritarian streak in him. Actually I think he is trying inwardly to distance himself from all "isms". The position "above ideology" is good for the state of society which to date has been swinging either to the left or to the right. On the only occasion when the President demonstrated his views these were not political but purely personal priorities, that was when he and his wife went to church on Easter. This is not so much a political signal to society as an expression of his personal views and principles. Politically it was important for him to support the new Patriarch. For the rest, all the ideology has been set aside.
Another thing that is apparent is that he distances himself from many purely economic topics. Perhaps it indicates some division of spheres of influence between the President and the Prime Minister. Yet even if this is the case it is doubly intriguing that Mr Medvedev does not absolve himself from responsibility for the economic problems connected with the crisis.
Another area which he considers important for himself is the National Projects. When these tasks were set they did not measure up to the level of the tasks that he has to wrestle with today. The chances are he has a different view of the economic and political situation now than he had a year ago. Now he sees the problems facing the country from a greater height and more clearly. The fact that he belongs to a different generation than the Prime Minister manifests itself in his thinking in terms of the Internet and new communication technologies. One can see it from the joy he displayed upon getting his own blog. This is the thinking of a younger man, more advanced technologically. In that sense he is closer to the mentality of younger people. He understands them better.
An important component of the President's personality is his style of relations with people. Dmitry Medvedev's relations with his team have finally taken shape over the past year. The team includes people whom he promoted himself and those whom he has "inherited", as for example, Vladislav Surkov. His team has by and large worked smoothly. Of course, only the insiders know exactly how the old and the new members of the team interact.
But judging from how effectively the foreign policy and the domestic policy lines are pursued and how the President uses new forms of communicating with the population, he has a team and he has a good working relationship with it.
President Medvedev seems to rely more on experts than his predecessor, as witnessed by the increased activity of the expert community. Medvedev seems to seek the opinion not only of the people who think like him, but also of the people who understand the problems he has to grapple with. Political psychologists who have studied behaviour patterns of presidents have found that some heads of state rely more on experts while others on like-minded people who are loyal to them personally. In that respect he is different from Mr Putin. Putin has greater need for people he can trust. This is his personal trait because he comes from a different background and has different experience that fostered his character.
Experts sometimes say that President Medvedev tries to copy the ways of his older comrade. Initially he did indeed try to imitate his manner of walking and talking. But during the year of his presidency he has become a lot more like himself. First, he has gained experience. Second, he is not the kind of person who can be pushed around, as some thought initially. He has an inner core and he is inwardly independent. I am confident that Medvedev is not a temporary president. He has a chance to serve not one term, but the two terms that are allowed under the Constitution. He is no pushover. It is unlikely that he ever saw himself as a toy which could be thrown away. He is a strong enough person who understands why he has come and he is certainly not the kind of person who could be manipulated by his team.
During the course of this year President Medvedev has solved some difficult tasks working against heavy odds. The fact that he has been able to preserve stability in Russia is in itself a great achievement. Obviously he has worked "twenty-four seven." He matured almost overnight if one remembers the Georgia-Ossetia conflict.
The ex-President found political issues burdensome
For Mr Putin the past year was psychologically both more simple and more difficult than for Medvedev. On the one hand, he apparently has always preferred dealing with issues that require getting into details, he found it interesting. As President he more readily dealt with practical issues. He is not particularly interested in domestic politics. He was noticeably bored with them. But Putin became Prime Minister on the eve of the economic downturn. He had to solve emergency problems at a time when the country's fate was at stake.
You remember the talk about Putin becoming Prime Minister in order to return as the President. This was the talk at the time of economic growth. In reality, such "castling moves" are impossible to predict. Even if he counted on this, now it can no longer happen automatically.
In what way has he changed? There was a period at the start of his premiership when he felt noticeably uncomfortable in the new role. But he quickly overcame the psychological discomfort. Now he has all the details at his fingertips, he knows the people in the country in various sectors, in various production facilities. In that sense he is in his right place. He obviously enjoys meeting with people. It is symptomatic that he has continued the forms of communicating with the people that he initiated as a president: TV linkups and so on. He feels at home in this format. This is his style of personal relations and in that way he has remained the same. He has relied on his inner circle and he still relies on his inner circle. He continues to work as he is used to working. That applies to foreign partners as well. There have been many international meetings and I did not notice that he felt uncomfortable with these people in his new capacity. Politics is in many ways like sports. It is part of the profession, and he is very professional and he accepts it. One cannot see any signs in his behaviour of feeling nervous or uncomfortable because he has changed roles.
His party status is an interesting point to discuss. On the one hand, he made the right decision in creating the presidential party and becoming its head. On the other hand, he has yet to fully tap the potential offered by the role of a party leader. At present the party uses him rather than the other way around. From that point of view I see great opportunities for Mr Putin as a politician who is evolving. And that can become part of his political capital, especially now that his presidency (even if he had such plans) depends on so many imponderables that today it is by no means a foregone conclusion. The role of party leader could be much more interesting than that of President. However, he has had no need yet to consider that role and its potential.
The new role of Prime Minister in which he settled during the past year is by no means simple. I am confident that he believes in his mission. Putin believes that his presence in positions of power is not accidental, he has certain goals and he will try to achieve them no matter how hard it may be in his present role. It is not accidental that he is a deeply religious man. His mindset is such that he thinks he has been put in this place to serve. It is not he who chose it, he has been chosen.
Some people would like to see them quarrel
As for the relationship between the President and the Prime Minister, I see no problems there. I think the problems may exist in the relations between their teams which are engaged in a constant tug-of-war and constantly play a game of oneupmanship and try to pursue their own ends using the authority of their bosses. There are people who would like to see them quarrel and are trying to set them against each other. It is to the credit of both of them that these attempts have failed. They have high regard for each other and they have known each other far too long to allow their relationship to be marred. In addition, they are men of responsibility and they understand that discord between them would be disastrous for the country. Yes, they are different, they have certainly different goals and tasks. But this need not be fraught with conflicts or misunderstanding. They have known each other far too long and they value their relationship.
Professor Yelena Shestopal, Dr. Sc. (Philosophy), head of the Political Sociology and Psychology Chair, Political Science Faculty, Moscow State University.
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Yelena Shestopal: "Not all the i's in the relations between the two leaders have been dotted".
Yelena Shestopal