Not all the countries that took part in the energy summit signed its declaration.
The Southern Corridor: New Silk Road energy summit, which ended on Friday, revived the EU's hopes about the Nabucco project. Although the final declaration was not signed by the Central Asian countries, which could provide the gas to fill the pipeline bypassing Russia, the key transit country, Turkey, did sign the document. Its participation in the project will enable Brussels to start building the pipeline and seek to bring Iran into the project.
Meanwhile Moscow has already launched its counter game. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is due in Russia on May 16 and, according to Kommersant's information, will discuss Ankara's participation in joint gas transport projects with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
The Prague declaration on the implementation of the Southern Corridor project to build pipelines bypassing Russia turned out to be less robust than Brussels had expected. The main blow to the organisers was dealt by the list of the signatories. The EU had expected Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan - the countries that could provide the gas for Nabucco and the Trans-Caspian pipeline -- mentioned in the declaration, to sign up. But the leaders of these countries did not attend the Prague summit and chose to be represented by officials who were not authorised to sign the documents.
However, after the summit EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs described it as "highly successful for Nabucco". His optimism is fuelled by the fact that the declaration has been signed by the countries through which the Caucasus stretch of the pipeline would pass: Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The last signature is particularly valuable. The declaration contains Turkey's pledge to complete the negotiations with the EU on the terms of Nabucco gas transit before the end of June.
A source at the European Commission told Kommersant that in return for joining the project Turkey wanted to buy 15% of all Nabucco gas below price, which would have rendered the project unprofitable. That obstacle has now been removed. "Turkey has withdrawn the 15% demand, and we are within reach of a final agreement," Commissioner Piebalgs said in Prague.
If an agreement is reached with Turkey, the construction of Nabucco may be launched in 2011. By 2014, when the pipeline is commissioned, it will deliver 8 billion cubic metres of gas to the EU. The second phase (installing additional gas pumps) would extend over the period between 2017 and 2019. Only then will Nabucco reach its design capacity of 31 billion cubic metres a year. Accordingly, for the project to get started, the EU needs guaranteed supply of 8 billion cubic metres.
At the initial stage the gas may come from the Shakh-Deniz-2 field in Azerbaijan. A memorandum on the sale of all the gas from that field to Gazprom was signed on March 27, but there is yet no contract. Another source may be Iran, which has reiterated its wish to join Nabucco. Last week Iran's Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari visited Germany to say that Tehran was ready to sign contracts to supply Iranian gas to Germany via Nabucco. Because gas from Azerbaijan and Iran can only come to the EU via Turkey, the fate of the project hinges on its support. So far Ankara indicates its readiness to support Nabucco, and not only as a transit country, but also as a mediator in talks with Iran. Mr Erdogan announced last Friday that he would visit Tehran shortly to discuss that country's participation in Nabucco.
However, Turkey's position may change. At the Prague summit, President Abdullah Gul of Turkey urged Brussels to stop blocking negotiations on his country's accession to the EU. In this way Ankara hinted again that it linked its support for Nabucco with progress in the talks on its integration into Europe. The reply was swift. On Sunday German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that "Turkey should not become a fully-fledged member of the EU." Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu replied that Ankara would settle for nothing less than full-fledged EU membership. The dispute that flared up does not bode well for the Nabucco project.
Moreover, Moscow has been making countermoves. On May 16 Recep Tayyip Erdogan is due to arrive in Russia. As he announced, he was going to attend the Eurovision song contest final in Moscow to support the Turkish participant, Hadise. However, according to our information, he will also have talks with Vladimir Putin on the Blue Stream-2 and South Stream projects. Incidentally, the day before, Prime Minister Putin will discuss these projects with one of Mr Erdogan's friends, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. It may happen that during the course of a friendly meeting Vladimir Putin would try to win the Turkish colleague over to his side and convince him that Nabucco was not a viable project.
By Alexander Gabuyev