"The atmosphere was fraternal, they almost embraced each other." This was how the Russian Ambassador to Ukraine, Viktor Chernomyrdin, described the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko, the first after the January "gas war." Viktor Chernomyrdin would not say this without reason. Not that Moscow easily forgave Kiev for signing the "Brussels accord" with the EU, an agreement that excluded Russia from the plan to modernise the Ukrainian gas transportation system. Yet the two countries are bound together. In other words, the main supplier of gas to Europe and the main transit country have no option but to make peace and come to terms. The question is what sort of terms. This mutual dependence is the secret of Moscow's new "love formula" with Kiev that has let it down more than once.
One crucial variable in this formula is Tymoshenko's main concession: consenting to Russia's participation in upgrading the Ukrainian gas transportation system. It may be true that discussions have only been about supplying pipes and units. But that will not be all. Moscow and Kiev, according to Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko, are already considering a large-scale agreement to ensure the safe transit of natural gas. In return, Moscow has promised not to fine Kiev for its breach of contract in failing to consume the quantity of gas that had been previously agreed upon ($2 billion's worth from January to April of 2009). The other crucial factor is a hard figure: the $5 billion which Yulia Tymoshenko failed to extract from the Russian Government.
Vladimir Putin advised his counterpart to borrow the sum from Brussels and pay Gazprom. In light of the declaration signed in Brussels, the "money first" principle is very risky: according to the agreement, a new legal entity may be created for the purpose of transit. Moscow no longer takes the cunning woman with a braid at her word. First you deliver the goods, then we pay.
Yelena Petrova