"Profil": "Yeltsin Had Done A Lot for Russian Elite"
Unlike his predecessors who, as soon as they moved into the Kremlin, started to fill it with their own people, Dmitry Medvedev is still a member of the "Putin team". That is one more argument in favour of the claim that the "Putin era" still lies ahead, thinks Olga Kryshtanovskaya, PhD in Sociology, the head of the RAS Sociology Institute's sector for the study of the elite.
Q.: Would it be true to say that the "Yeltsin elite" has survived?
A.: One can talk about the remnants of the "Yeltsin elite": they are the people whom Yeltsin had brought to power and to big business. It is a cohort linked to the first President politically, emotionally and geographically.
Q.: Does that group have any common values or common interests?
A.: Not any longer. Of course power is always a magnet, and when Boris Yeltsin was sitting in the Kremlin these people were in some ways united. They had the common goal of coming to power and staying in power. When Vladimir Putin became President these people faced a dilemma: either continue to play their old game and thus quickly compromise themselves and go, or accept the new rules of the game and join the new team. Those Yeltsin people whom Putin has kept in power have chosen the latter course, they were in fact "recruited back" by Mr Putin.
Q.: Have "Yeltsin's people" kept control of any key positions?
A.: One can hardly talk about key positions. But if you look at the medium and lower-level in the Presidential Executive Office or in the Government Executive Office there are a lot of these people there.
By the way, it is a mystery to me too why the military started taking high positions under Yeltsin: a lot of the new members of the elite were people in uniforms, former army or security men. That process had begun under Yeltsin. It merely continued under Putin.
Q.: First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, who has been holding key positions in the executive since the Yeltsin era, is often mentioned among the representatives of the "Yeltsin elite". How justified is that opinion?
A.: Another official of the same level and with a similar biography is First Deputy Chief of the Presidential Executive Office, Vladislav Surkov. But they can hardly be called "Yeltsin people": both of them had been elevated to power as pure technocrats. I wouldn't say that they had ideological links with Yeltsin and that they shared his view of the mechanisms of power and the path of Russia's development. They were taken on as managers who had acquitted themselves well in big business on account of their organisation talent. Mr Surkov, before he became a civil servant, had worked with Menatep Bank and Alfa-Group, and Mr Shuvalov in the 1990s was the head of a private law firm ALM, so named after its owner, Alexander Leonidovich Mamut.
Among the firm's clients were the captains of Russian business of the time: in other words, some individuals have survived: some as newly hired technocrats (like Surkov and Shuvalov), some have been used as top-notch specialists and advisors in tackling specific tasks (for example, Alexander Voloshin or Anatoly Chubais). By the way, Mr Voloshin is said to have been an advisor to presidential candidate Dmitry Medvedev.
Q.: What role did he play?
A.: Politics is like chess. The people who are prized most are those who can look many moves ahead. Mr Voloshin is that kind of person. He has a very special political talent, an ability to see all the squares, foresee all the possible combinations, predict and forestall possible conflicts. Such people are few and far between.
Q.: How strong are the positions of the Yelstin-era oligarchs, for example, Abramovich and Deripaska?
A.: In business, the positions of the Yeltsin-era oligarchs have weakened substantially. But the Family's business traditions are still alive. It was under Yeltsin that private oil trading firms appeared. Such firms were initiated by Leonid Dyachenko, the President's son-in-law, the former husband of his daughter Tatyana. He founded a company called Urals, which sprouted a large number of subsidiaries. Many of them were founded abroad. One of Urals' subsidiaries was the company Gunvor, now headed by Gennady Timchenko, who is thought to be a close friend of Mr Putin. That is added proof that Putin's election was prompted by many factors, including economic ones. It can be said that oil trade business in our country is the President's domain. By the way, Urals is still alive, but it has been sidelined and pushed outside Russia.
Q.: How loyal to the present leadership are the people who made fortunes under Yeltsin and how much are they part of the new system, or are they just lying low and biding their time?
A.: While they lie low nobody bothers. What bothers people is actions. But I think that any leader (including Mr Putin) when he comes to power understands that there are "his own" people whom he can trust utterly and there are people who are "not his own" who may or may not behave the way he wants them to. If they display a fair degree of loyalty and help the authorities and back their projects, a contract, a gentlemen's agreement, on mutual non-aggression may be made with them. If they cease to be loyal, such a contract may be terminated: the story of Mikhail Khodorkovsky has demonstrated what may happen in that case. But the difference between "one's own people" and "not one's own" (even if they are "loyal") is huge. In a crisis situation the "friends" may get help while the "fellow travellers" might be told: "guys, shift for yourselves".
Q.: It was rumoured at one time that Dmitry Medvedev as Mr Putin's successor is a compromise figure that suits both the "Putinites" and the "Yeltsinites". How much truth is there in these rumours?
A.: I think there is some truth in them. In fact any chief executive, when his candidature is discussed, is a compromise figure, simply because no one can be forced down people's throats. Any appointment is always a compromise, especially when it comes to the post of president.
Q.: The KPRF leader Gennady Zyuganov said something odd at first glance: he suggested that in time of crisis Putin-Medvedev may have power snatched from them by people from the 1990s who are allegedly preparing an "orange coup". What do you think about such scenarios?
A.: Mr Zyuganov has long been credited with having a special knack for making incredible scenarios. As for the scenario of power being snatched in the context of a crisis, imagine the huge amount of preparatory work needed to bring it off. It would have been impossible to conceal it. It would have been impossible to conceal the leaders of such a process. But to the best of my belief, nothing like it is happening in Russia.
Q.: In the final years of the Yeltsin presidency we have heard a lot about the role of the Family. Nothing has been heard of it for some time. How is it faring today?
A.: The Family was a group of people sharing a common interest, to influence the President, who was not always in full possession of his intellectual faculties. As soon as this goal vanished, the Family fell apart. Yeltsin has been dead for two years. His relatives lead the lives of private individuals. One has to admit that Yeltsin had done a lot for the Russian elite. He opened the doors, let in "fresh blood" and renewed the human resources. Many clever and talented people appeared in the corridors of power under him. That the leader who succeeded him has used that human capital is not surprising.
Q.: So, every change of watch in the Kremlin inevitably changes the elite: the former elite, if it wants to survive, has to pledge allegiance to the new number one...
A.: That is a normal working process. There is even a scholarly name for it: fragmentation of the elite. Any new appointment at any level results in a new boss bringing his own people along with him. From that point of view it is surprising how slowly Mr Medvedev is forming his own team. Long before his election I drew up a list of 55 closest friends and co-workers of Mr Medvedev. However, hardly anyone of them has been promoted during the year of his presidency. As a rule it takes two years to finally form the presidential team. Halfway through that period, Mr Medvedev is still not in a hurry. Only three of "his" people are in key posts: the head of the Higher Arbitration Court, Anton Ivanov, Justice Minister Alexander Konovalov and Presidential Aide and the head of the Executive Office's Control Directorate, Konstantin Chuichenko. All the others are either on the fringes or in state-owned businesses (mainly with Gazprom and its subsidiaries).
Perhaps that is a sure sign of who will succeed President Medvedev. Everything is logical: why replace the "Putin elite" if it may yet come in handy?
A.: Yes, you are right. Dmitry Medvedev in spite of his top job is still a member of the "Putin team". He is not creating his own team. So far he is a President without a team. That may change of course. But the odds are that around 2012 Vladimir Putin will be back in the Kremlin and then everything will click into its place.
By Vladimir Rudakov
